Favorites have been a huge story throughout the NFL season and have wreaked havoc on sports betting operators in multiple weeks.
In the playoffs, the public continued its trend of backing what oddsmakers determine as the better team. Heading into one of the best Sundays of the year when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game and the Buffalo Bills invade Kansas City in the AFC title match, sportsbooks revealed their needs.
And the script has been flipped.
“We're still a few days out, but as of now we’re in a rare spot of pulling for both favorites,” Adrian Horton, ESPN BET’s North American sports trading director told Covers. “There's been a pretty consistent split of spread tickets and money favoring Washington and Buffalo throughout most of the week.”
The winners of Sunday’s games meet in Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.
"The sportsbook is hoping for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “The public is all over the underdogs to win and this matchup would generate great action.”
Commanders at Eagles
Traditional NFC East rivals, who split their two regular-season showdowns, meet in the early game on Sunday for a trip to the Big Easy. The Eagles, who were without quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second matchup, opened as a 5-point favorite after Hurts led the team to a 28-22 victory over the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round.
bet365 said 61% of bettors were getting in on Philadelphia early in the week, but once the line moved, 62% of the bets came in on the Commanders (+6), who shocked the top-seeded Lions last week in Detroit 45-31.
BetMGM reported on Friday morning that 63% of the handle and 62% of the tickets backed Washington, which has also received 69.5% of the bets and 56.8% of the handle at ESPN BET.
Eagles-Commanders spread betting at @BetMGM
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 24, 2025
▪️ Eagles -5: 4.7% of bets
▪️ Eagles -5.5: 10.5%
▪️ Eagles -6: 22.4%
▪️ Commanders +5: 5.1%
▪️ Commanders +5.5: 13.9%
▪️ Commanders +6: 43.4%@Eagles have moved from -5 to -6
62% of bets are on @Commanders to cover pic.twitter.com/BEAZ73jpJS
“After early money coming in on the Eagles at -5, the public has latched onto Jayden Daniels and the Commanders hype with around two-thirds of bets and a majority of the handle now on Washington between +5.5 and 6.5,” Horton said.
DraftKings has seen some pushback as the online sportsbook reported that while 60% of the tickets are backing the +6 underdog, 54% of the money is actually on the Eagles.
Washington is dominating moneyline wagers across the board, reaching as high as 85% of the bets and 75% of the handle at BetMGM, where the most-bet play of the week is Commanders +240.
Weather isn’t expected to present an impact and temperatures will be in the 40s for the mid-afternoon contest. That’s helped make the over a popular NFL Conference Championship pick and prediction. BetMGM has seen 72% of the bets but just 51% of the handle backing over 48 while ESPN BET reported 76.3% of the money is taking the total to go above 47.5.
Bills at Chiefs
Another pair of familiar foes square off for the AFC title in the fourth playoff meeting between the Bills and Chiefs in the late game on Sunday. Buffalo got here by edging Baltimore last week while the Chiefs handled the Houston Texans in a game that finished on a key number in a wild way.
The home team has been a slight favorite all week, ranging between -1 and -2 at most shops, but the public loves Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and the road underdog, despite an 0-3 record against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City in the playoffs.
Currently at +2 at ESPN BET, the Bills are getting 71.7% of the tickets and 73.8% of the money.
“It’s been mostly one-way traffic on the Bills to this point with the line staying around +2,” Horton said.
DraftKings reported 67% of the handle and 63% of the bets are on the Bills +1.5 while BetMGM has seen 61% of the tickets and a slight 52% edge of the money chasing the underdog.
The Bills +110 on the moneyline is the second-most popular bet at BetMGM with 73% of the bets and a lesser 61% of the handle.
It’s the same old story with the total as at least 70% of the tickets at both BetMGM and DraftKings are coming in on the over. A whopping 89% of the point-total handle is backing over 48 at BetMGM.
A bettor at @BetMGM wagered $200,000 on Chiefs-Bills OVER 47.5.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 24, 2025
Total has moved from 47.5 to 48.5 📈 pic.twitter.com/uHkVe8XVy2
Backing Barkley
With Baltimore’s Derrick Henry eliminated from playoffs, bettors have turned their attention to another big-time running back: Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley.
Conference Championship best bets and player props for the NFL’s leading rusher in 2024 are taking serious amounts of action. ESPN BET reported that over Barkley’s rushing yard total of 124.5 has seen 81.2% of the bets and 91.9% of the handle.
That number matches last week’s highest yardage total given to a running back by the online sportsbook this season. Barkley has gone over his player-prop total in 15 of his 18 games.
SAQUON BARKLEY 78-YARDS! AN ALL-TIME SEASON! ❄️
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) January 19, 2025
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/1gYoXuDWBq
BetMGM set his rushing total at 131.5, and the over is the fifth most-bet player prop the sportsbook is offering on Commanders-Eagles. His longest rush of over 21.5 is third behind Austin Ekeler over 21.5 receiving yards and Dallas Goedert over 39.5 receiving yards.
Barkley is also the most-bet player to score an anytime touchdown this week at both ESPN BET and BetMGM, which lists the Eagle at -225 to find the end zone. He’s the most-bet first touchdown scorer as well with odds of +360.
Allen is second in wagers at ESPN BET and first at BetMGM in the anytime and first TD markets.
“Saquon and Josh Allen staying out of the end zone would be great for us on Sunday, too,” Cipollini said.
