The NFL draft doesn’t always go the way of the sportsbook.
Key Takeaways
- Ashton Jeanty falling out of the top five was a big win for BetMGM.
- SuperBook Westgate Las Vegas took a small loss on Thursday night.
- Picks and props markets go the online sportsbook’s way.
With so many betting markets, many of them open for multiple months, and tons of information available, sharp bettors and even the public can create customer-friendly outcomes during the league’s major event.
That wasn’t the case following Thursday night’s first round for BetMGM, which reported a successful Day 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft.
“Overall, BetMGM had one of its best NFL drafts ever,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “Ashton Jeanty falling out of the top five ended up being the highlight of the first round for us. We saw great action from bettors even with the NBA and NHL playoffs going on.”
One of the most prominent brick-and-mortar operators in Las Vegas didn’t fare as well. SuperBook Westgate’s John Murray told Covers on Friday that the sportsbook ended Thursday in the red.
“We didn't open the NFL draft for wagering until Tuesday afternoon,” Murray said. “That's been our plan for the last three years, and it has enabled us to keep our draft liabilities in check. We were small winners on the draft in 2023 and 2024, but suffered a small loss last night in Round 1.”
First-round market results
In BetMGM’s markets for each of the first 10 picks, none of the biggest liabilities went against the sportsbook. Cam Ward going first overall to the Tennessee Titans was expected, and despite 62.5% of the money and 12.6% of the tickets on the quarterback, Travis Hunter dominated the No. 1 selection bets with longer NFL Draft odds.
The receiver/defensive back from Colorado ended up going second to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who surprisingly traded up and killed off any tickets that had the Cleveland Browns selecting Hunter in the draft.
College teammate and quarterback Shedeur Sanders was the biggest liability in the No. 2 and No. 3 overall markets, but one of the most intriguing betting storylines of the draft wasn’t selected at all on Thursday.
Jeanty was a popular bet to get scooped up early, but with the Jaguars trading up to No. 2 and no teams moving into the top five at the last minute, the running back from Boise State fell to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 6. Jeanty was the biggest liability to go fourth at BetMGM.
Offensive tackle Armand Membou was the biggest liability to go sixth. He went a pick later to the New York Jets.
High volume
Aron Wattleworth, bet365 trading leader, told Covers that the sportsbook’s NFL draft volume increased this year “due to many factors, including the expansion of (betting) markets offered,” as well as new operating jurisdictions. bet365 launched in Illinois, one of the top markets in the U.S., last month.
The online sportsbook also reported that its best result on Thursday came from Sanders falling out of the first round, despite many early plus-money bets on him not being selected in the first 32 picks.
“The majority (of bettors) were expecting a first-round selection for him,” Wattleworth said.
Jeanty slipping out of the top five and not going to the Jaguars or Bears was a positive outcome for bet365, as well. Bettors did find success against bet365 with wagers on Ward, Hunter, Abdul Carter, and Will Campbell, especially for customers who wagered on those top-four player markets early.
“Carter’s selection at 3 and Campbell at 4 were great for customers,” Wattleworth said.
Prop victories
BetMGM and bet365 also benefited from Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart not going to the New Orleans Saints at No. 9. At +550, he was the most-bet player to go in the top 10 of the draft. The New York Giants traded with Houston to get into the 25th spot and selected Dart there.
The Saints, meanwhile, took offensive lineman Kelvin Banks Jr., who was the second-most-bet player to go in the top 10, but with odds of -1,000, it’s unlikely he hurt the books badly. However, Tetairoa McMillian at +225 had the longest odds of the most-bet players to go in the top 10 at BetMGM, and the Panthers snagged the Arizona receiver eighth overall.
While the draft position of Sanders slipped enough to help bettors, several sportsbooks did well with him falling out of the first round. BetMGM reported that 62.5% of the handle on the 2.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round prop was on the over.
Over 90% of the prop money for the first tight end taken was on Tyler Warren, but the Penn State star went four spots after Michigan’s Colston Loveland was selected by the Bears at No. 10.
Win some, lose some
At SuperBook, Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka falling to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 19 put him under his listed draft position.
“We did very well on that prop and held every bet we took on it,” Murray said.
However, the Denver Broncos opting to take Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron instead of an offensive player at the very next pick ended up being the SuperBook’s worst result.
“Win some, lose some,” Murray said. “We have a few more decisions (Friday), but overall, the draft won't go down as a real big winner or loser for us this weekend.”
