The NFL Draft went as expected for quite some time, until the eighth overall pick was announced for the Atlanta Falcons.
Despite signing quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180-million contract during free agency, Atlanta’s front office opted to draft quarterback Michael Penix Jr. out of the University of Washington.
Penix Jr. saw his draft stock rise after a strong performance in a Sugar Bowl win over Texas during the 2024 College Football Playoff. Sports bettors who wagered Penix to be drafted eighth overall can celebrate after hitting on NFL draft odds as long as +6600.
Results like these contribute to sportsbooks' frustration in setting odds for the NFL draft.
Viral wagers
There are several viral wagers surrounding Penix Jr. and his longshot odds to be selected eighth overall. A FanDuel Sportsbook customer placed a $20 wager on Penix to be taken with the eighth overall pick at +8,500. This longshot bet netted a total return of $1,720.
He cashed Michael Penix Jr. at +8500 odds 💰
— FanFunded (@fanfundedclub) April 26, 2024
INSANE
(IG: danegill @fdsportsbook) pic.twitter.com/ARtVlIeqT3
Another longshot draft bet on Penix Jr. being drafted at No. 8 was placed at DraftKings Sportsbook. The $100 stake yielded a $3,000 winning ticket after the rookie quarterback’s odds were wagered at +3,000.
FALCONS DRAFT MICHAEL PENIX JR 😱
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) April 26, 2024
One bettor turned $100 ➡️ $3,000 after betting that Michael Penix Jr will be selected with the No. 8 pick. pic.twitter.com/ptiicEjvi2
And Covers' own Brandon DuBreuil pinpointed a nugget from ESPN's Adam Schefter days before the draft that had +10,000 odds on Penix to the Falcons.
OH BOY! https://t.co/aSxb1ML1zn
— Brandon DuBreuil (@CoversBDB) April 26, 2024
Penix’s odds of being drafted in the top 10 were available at BetMGM at +750. Other books posted odds for several teams to draft him, as short as +200 to the Las Vegas Raiders. This betting market was comprised of 10 total teams, with the Falcons sharing the longest odds at 25-1.
Quarterback controversy?
Cousins’ massive contract awarded by the Falcons’ new regime less than two months ago makes the selection of Penix Jr. very intriguing. Naturally, Atlanta’s selection comes as a shock to most, as the 24-year-old rookie signal-caller suffered four different injuries while playing at Indiana and Washington.
Penix Jr.'s injury history includes two grade 3 ACL tears, along with a clavicle fracture, and AC joint separation in his right shoulder. Fortunately, he’s left-handed, so this is a smaller issue compared to if his shoulder injuries were on the side of his dominant hand.
Cousins has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league during his recent tenure with the Minnesota Vikings. Atlanta’s offense is loaded with several top-tier weapons like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson, so the betting favorites to be selected by the Falcons were edge rushers like Dallas Turner, who wound up as short as +170 during the hours leading up to the draft.
Atlanta’s new general manager, Terry Fontenot, along with new head coach Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson, will have quality depth when it comes to the quarterback position. After a disappointing year in 2023, this move could give the franchise a much-needed jolt and an insurance policy on the 35-year-old Cousins.
It’s important to remember that Cousins is coming off of a torn Achilles suffered in October. Aaron Rodgers’ road to recovery was more unique and well-documented, but he wound up resting instead of playing late in the season. If Cousins doesn’t look good right away or is prone to more injuries as he continues to age, Atlanta’s pick may wind up looking much smarter in the coming years.
