Week 10 in the NFL might be the one that gets the sportsbooks back on a more profitable path.
With sports betting operators struggling early in the fourth quarter of this fiscal year, the second weekend in November produced a heavy dose of underdogs heading into Monday’s game between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams.
“Week 10 has been good for the sportsbook with underdogs going 10-3 ATS,” a BetMGM spokesperson told Covers. “The book will be cheering for the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.”
As NFL teams go, so do sportsbooks. This underdog-filled week began with Baltimore’s thrilling one-point win over Cincinnati on Thursday and carried over into Week 10’s entertaining Sunday.
The Carolina Panthers covered and won for the second time in consecutive weeks since Dec. 2022 with an overtime shocker over the New York Giants in Germany early Sunday morning.
Big day for the books
The Detroit Lions were the most-bet team in both tickets and handle at BetMGM on Sunday. The 3.5-point favorite rallied for a 26-23 win on Sunday Night Football.
Three other home underdogs covered the spread, and seven of Sunday’s 12 games were decided by five points or less.
DraftKings reported that 92% of the handle was on the Atlanta Falcons, who lost straight up at New Orleans. The Kansas City Chiefs failed to cover but blocked a Denver field goal at the end of the game to save their perfect record.
Minnesota failed to score a touchdown, but the Vikings got four field goals to edge the Jaguars, who covered the touchdown spread. Pittsburgh edged Washington to cover as a road underdog while the Arizona Cardinals (+2) blew out Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets.
History shows that public bettors love taking Overs, but nine games went Under the point total, adding to the sportsbooks’ big day.
That’s a far cry from Week 6 when the favorites won every game. Six teams that held 60% of the handle covered. Road teams went 8-0.
Customer-friendly outcomes
The turnaround comes at a time when sports betting operators have lamented their recent struggles.
Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg recently said the gaming company suffered “the single worst combination of sports betting outcomes we've seen since we started the business” in mid-October.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins called the beginning of Q4 “the most customer-friendly stretch of sport outcomes that we’ve ever seen.”
This led to one of the top market-share sportsbooks in the U.S. significantly dropping its guidance for the fiscal year.
Hopefully, sport outcomes will improve,” Robins said last week.
MNF insights
The final game of Week 10 features two teams heading in opposite directions.
The Rams, winners of their last three, are a 2.5-point home favorite over a Miami team that’s dropped three consecutive games. Not surprisingly, bettors aren’t backing off the favorite, despite the Week 10 underdog trend.
At DraftKings, 75% of the tickets and 78% of the money are on L.A. BetMGM reported 84% of the bets and 77% of the handle is backing the home team.
Fanatics Sportsbook reported even more L.A. love as 88.3% of the tickets and 89% of the money are on the Rams.
“It’s just been all Rams action the past couple of days,” Max Meyer, senior editor at Fanatics, said. “On Friday, the Dolphins actually had more handle for the spread and on the moneyline. Now if you combine spread and moneyline, there’s nearly five times more Rams handle than Dolphins handle.”
At BetMGM, Miami’s Tyreek Hill has the most-bet player prop, with 99% of the handle on over 70.5 receiving yards.
Circa update
The good week for the sportsbooks was bad for a batch of Circa Survivor participants.
The contest that started with 14,266 entries was down to 105 after Sunday. The Giants eliminated 30 entries early while the Chicago Bears’ loss to the New England Patriots doomed another 14 participants.
Nobody left in the 105-entry contest is on the Dolphins or Rams.
