The Detroit Lions enter the first week of the NFL playoffs as the favorites to win the Super Bowl, ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills, among others.
BetMGM reported earlier this week that the Lions, currently listed at +275 to win it all, are the operator’s biggest liability in the futures market. Combining that with bettors' propensity to back Detroit, the second-most bet team in the NFL this season, a long Lions run in the playoffs could be hazardous for sportsbooks.
However, operators won’t have a chance to pull for an early Detroit elimination this week. The Lions earned the NFC’s first-round bye. Instead, they’ll go up against bettors on some of the toughest lines to beat: postseason spreads.
Two of the wild-card round’s six games have a spread of more than a touchdown while three of the remaining four are at or under a field goal. Anything can happen in playoff football. Last year, four of the six wild-card underdogs covered the spread and won outright.
Several sportsbooks shared insights and betting splits heading into the first slate of playoff action.
Chargers at Texans
The AFC South champion Houston Texans are a field-goal underdog to the visiting Los Angeles Chargers in Saturday’s matinee. That hasn’t stopped bettors from backing the favorite.
The Chargers are the most-bet team at BetMGM so far, getting more than 70% of both the handle and the bets. With the Texans plagued by injuries and the Chargers winners of their last three regular-season games, 88% of the money and 79% of the tickets are on Los Angeles -3 at DraftKings.
The betting is a little more even at Fanatics Sportsbook, which has seen 64% of the handle on Los Angeles despite 74% of the tickets coming in on the favorite.
bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth said Friday that there’s been a slight move to the Texans, but the Chargers are still getting 67% of the spread plays.
“Los Angeles Chargers ended up tied for first in this season’s (against the spread) rankings with a record of 12-5 ATS. Houston was in the bottom half of the rankings with a 7-8-2 ATS record,” Wattleworth said.
Nearly 70% of the total points wagering is on the over 42.5 at DraftKings. As expected, much of the moneyline action on this game is leaning heavily toward the Chargers, who are getting 83% of the handle, most of any team at BetMGM.
There’s still at least one bettor out there willing to take a flyer on a deep Texans playoff run.
A bettor in NV wagered $10,989.12 on the Texans to win Super Bowl LIX (+9000) at the Caesars Superdome 😳
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 9, 2025
Potential payout: $1,000,000.12 pic.twitter.com/ZAYV4U8kon
Steelers at Ravens
The splits on this spread are all over the place at sportsbooks.
Pittsburgh heads to Baltimore as a 10-point underdog, and despite a four-game losing streak, including one to the Ravens during that span, the Steelers are the third-most-bet team at BetMGM by handle and tickets.
The Steelers are getting 66% of the bets and 59% of the handle on the spread as well as 69% of the moneyline bets and 52% of the handle.
ESPN BET reported 55% of the bets and 57% of the handle are coming in on the Ravens while DraftKings has also seen 54% of the handle but just 51% of the bets on the home team.
Action slightly favors Baltimore with more of the handle leaning toward them at Fanatics while bet365 reported interesting movement.
“The opener of Baltimore -9.5 saw the move to 10, and now lays -10 (-105), which would normally indicate that Baltimore is seeing heavy action, and they did early at -9.5,” Wattleworth said. “However, since the move to 10, the Steelers are seeing solid support, with the rate of play seeing approximately 68% of all spread plays on Pittsburgh.”
Below-freezing temperatures are expected in Baltimore on Saturday, but snow is expected to move out before the evening kickoff. Still, this game is the most-bet under (43.5 points) at BetMGM. This is the only playoff game at Fanatics this weekend with more action on the under than the over.
Broncos at Bills
Sunday’s tripleheader gets started with one of the hottest teams in the NFL and an MVP candidate hosting a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start.
Despite the line going from 7.5 to 9, the underdog Broncos are getting a slight edge in the splits with 54% of the bets and 55% of the money coming in on Denver at BetMGM. DraftKings has seen a much more Buffalo Bills lean with 72% of the handle and 61% of the bets backing the favorite. Fanatics has seen more than 60% of the money come in on the Bills but the ticket split is just 55%.
ESPN BET reported that the Buffalo moneyline at -450 is getting 84% of the tickets and 88% of the handle. Meanwhile, BetMGM’s most-bet underdog by tickets is the Broncos (+350).
A bettor in Nevada wagered $3,331.58 on the Broncos (+6000) to win Super Bowl LIX at the Caesars Superdome 👀
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 10, 2025
Potential Win: $199,894.80 pic.twitter.com/1gmOkOJlqG
Josh Allen has the most-bet player prop at BetMGM. The Bills QB is getting 99% of the money on the over for his rushing total of 40.5 yards (-115). Weather shouldn’t cause much concern, which bettors are taking note of as this point total of 47.5 is the most-bet over at BetMGM.
Packers at Eagles
One of the most intriguing games of Wild Card Weekend, the public has taken as clear a side on this game as any.
The spread in Sunday’s late afternoon matchup opened at 3.5 but has shot up to as high as Eagles -5.5. Philadelphia is the second most-bet team this weekend at BetMGM, getting 77% bets and 81% handle.
ESPN BET said nearly 90% of the spread money and 83.7% of the moneyline handle are backing the Eagles, who get quarterback Jalen Hurts back from a concussion. Packers QB Jordan Love was banged up in the season-finale against Chicago, but he’s “hopeful” to play on Sunday.
A bettor out of MI wagered $25K on the Eagles (+330) to win the NFC 😯
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 9, 2025
Potential payout: $107,500 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1oISHMGVzF
DraftKings has seen 84% of the money come in on the favorite while Fanatics reported 72% of the handle is on the Eagles, who gave stars Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown last week off.
Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs, who excited in the second quarter of last week’s game, has the second-most-bet player prop at BetMGM on his over 17.5 receiving yards.
Commanders at Bucs
The Sunday night game features a rematch from two teams that met in the NFL’s Week 1 and one of the most balanced playoff matches on this weekend’s slate in terms of betting splits.
Tampa Bay easily won the regular-season meeting by 17 points. However, Washington is the most-popular underdog at Fanatics Sportsbook and the third most-bet underdog (+140) at BetMGM.
As a 3-point underdog, the Commanders are getting 54% of the spread money and 52% of the tickets at DraftKings.
Among sportsbooks that provided insights to Covers, only BetMGM has seen the handle and bets lean toward the Bucs, who are getting 54% of the tickets and 59% of the money.
This is the second most-bet over at BetMGM with a point total of 50.5. ESPN BET moved from 49.5 at the opening to 50.5 on Friday. The online sportsbook reported 77% of the bets and nearly 80% of the money is on the score to go past the total.
Vikings at Rams (in Arizona)
This game was thrown for a very serious loop on Thursday when the location of Monday night’s wild-card round finale was moved from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, because of the devastating wildfires sweeping the area around the California city.
The change to a neutral site reset the action and altered the line as Minnesota went from a 1-point favorite to -3, which has likely impacted the splits. ESPN BET reported that 56% of the bets and 51% of the money are on the Vikings.
DraftKings has seen an even larger split with 67% of the handle and 66% of the bets backing the favorite. BetMGM has been feeling Minnesota all week with nearly 90% of the spread handle and 81% of the moneyline handle on the Vikings.
The game moved from one indoor venue to another enclosed environment so little changed with the total. ESPN BET has seen 71% of the tickets and 89% of the money on the over 47.5. This is the third most-bet over at BetMGM.
