Cameron Ward’s stranglehold on the NFL Draft first pick market increased coming out of the league’s annual Combine. BetMGM moved the favorite and Miami Hurricanes' quarterback from -145 to go No. 1 overall before the event to -225 coming out of it. Ward didn’t throw at the Combine, but his first overall handle grew from 43.9% to 44.4%. His ticket percentage did slip a tad week-over-week.
Linebacker Abdul Carter has been a potential Ward disruptor for No. 1 overall in some of the industry’s mock drafts, but the second player listed in BetMGM’s market suffered a foot injury that had some prognosticators backing off. A Combine non-participant, Carter’s odds moved from +180 to +185 at BetMGM. With +190 odds at DraftKings, Carter received 14% of the tickets and 20% of the handle to go No. 1.
Who’s the big liability?
With two months remaining before the 2025 NFL Draft, Travis Hunter (+1,100) is ahead of Ward as BetMGM’s biggest liability in the first-pick market. The Colorado receiver/defensive back has 29.2% of the tickets, down slightly from 29.4% before the Combine, and 20.8% of the handle, a 1.3% decrease from the previous week. DraftKings has Hunter getting 22% of the handle and a market-high 25% of the wagers.
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, who also didn't throw at the Combine, took a hit with draft pundits in recent weeks. He’s more of a longshot with +1,500 odds to go No. 1 overall, but second in tickets (18.7%) and third in handle (18.4%). Sanders is getting 13% of the handle and 11% of the bets at DraftKings.
Who’s picking No. 1?
The Tennessee Titans have the No. 1 selection heading into the first round, but will they keep it? Bettors don’t think so.
DraftKings said 37% of the tickets and 57% of the bets came in on the New York Giants at +200 in the “team to pick first” market. The Giants currently have the third pick and would need to do some wheeling and dealing to jump the Cleveland Browns.
The Titans are -150 favorites to pick first but second in the market with 14% of the handle and 15% of the wagers. The New York Jets saw 10% of the money and 14% of the action to move up to the No. 1 spot at +1,000, which requires a big leap from picking seventh.
The Browns (+550) are fourth with 8% of the handle at DraftKings. There are some long-shot bets on the Las Vegas Raiders moving up from sixth to first as 8% of the tickets came in on the QB-needy team.
Where will they go?
Based on those markets, Ward could very well end up in Tennessee or New York. Some other stars are harder to decipher.
According to DraftKings’ splits, bettors think Hunter will land with the New England Patriots or the Giants. The Patriots, who pick fourth, are getting 43% of the money and 38% of the bets to select Hunter with +215 odds. The Giants (+270) are right behind them in the Hunter market with 27% of the handle and 21% of the tickets.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, considered the Draft's top rusher, also has his own market at DraftKings. The Raiders (+320) lead the way in handle with 33% of the money. They’re tied with the Dallas Cowboys in tickets at 20% each. The Cowboys have 22% of the handle to select Jeanty.
