2024 Indy 500 Picks, Predictions, and Race Preview

Kyle Larson will be the first NASCAR Cup Series driver in 10 years to attempt the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 double on Sunday, but is he the best bet on the Indy 500 board? Join us as we take a look at the latest odds.

Eric Smith - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Smith • Betting Analyst
May 26, 2024 • 09:45 ET • 4 min read
Kyle Larson IndyCar Series Indianapolis 500
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis 500 is set for this afternoon, and our full Indy 500 betting preview contains free betting picks and much more. 

The spotlight is focused on NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson as he makes his IndyCar debut and attempts the rare "double" of vying in the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 on the same day.

While Larson is one of the betting favorites for "The Greatest Spectacle in Racing," he's still looking up at some of the IndyCar series veterans on the board.

Indy 500 odds

Driver DraftKings BetMGM FanDuel
Scott McLaughlin +500 +550 +550
Josef Newgarden +550 +525 +500
Will Power +700 +800 +750
Kyle Larson +750 +700 +550
Colton Herta +1,000 +1,000 +850
Alexander Rossi +1,000 +1,000 +950
Pato O'Ward +1,100 +1,100 +1,200
Alex Palou +1,200 +1,300 +1,300
Scott Dixon +1,200 +700 +900
Santino Ferrucci +1,800 +1,500 +1,600
Rinus Veekay +2,500 +3,000 +2,100
Felix Rosenqvist +3,000 +4,000 +5,500
Kyle Kirkwood +2,800 +3,500 +3,300
Takuma Sato +3,000 +3,500 +2,200
Helio Castroneves +1,600 +2,500 +1,800
Ryan Hunter-Reay +4,000 +6,000 +6,000
Marco Andretti +6,000 +5,000 +5,000
Marcus Armstrong +6,000 +12,500 +6,500
Ed Carpenter +6,000 +10,000 +6,500
Christian Rasmussen +6,000 +10,000 +5,500

Odds as of 5-26-2024.

Indy 500 field

A field of 33 drivers will compete in the 108th running of the Indianapolis 500, which will go green on Sunday at 12:45 p.m. ET. The race can be seen on NBC and Peacock. 

Kyle Larson is the story of the race as he seeks to join John Andretti, Davy Jones, Robby Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Kurt Busch as full-time NASCAR Cup Series drivers to race in both the Indy 500 and the Coke 600. Of those five drivers to do "double duty," none has won any of the races they've competed in. A sixth-place finish in the 2001 Indy 500 and a third in the Coke 600 by Stewart was considered remarkable.

Understandably, Larson is taking plenty of action, but he is not the betting favorite. That honor falls to pole sitter Scott McLaughlin, who is currently sixth in the IndyCar standings but has led the most laps (60) of any driver through four races.

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Indy 500 picks and analysis

Indy 500 Favorites

Scott McLaughlin (+400)
Many trends point to NTT P1 Award winner McLaughlin taking the prestigious victory. Chevrolet has the No. 1 pit stall with race engineer Ben Bretzman calling the shots. The last time Bretzman had the No. 1 pit stall? 2019 calling Simon Pagenaud’s Indianapolis 500 victory from…the pole, where McLaughlin starts. 

McLaughlin has been successful on ovals outside of Indianapolis. In four career Texas Motor Speedway starts, he has two runner-up finishes among his four Top-10 results. At short ovals Iowa Speedway and World Wide Technology Raceway, McLaughlin has six Top-5 finishes in seven combined starts.

Will Power (+650)
The 2018 Indianapolis 500 winner starts second and has three runner-up finishes in four races this season. He was second, ninth, and third, respectively, in the last three race practices. 

Alexander Rossi (+1,000)
It seems borderline criminal Rossi hasn’t won a “500” since his shocking rookie victory in the 100th Running of the prestigious event in 2016. He has finished seventh, fourth, second, 27th (led 17 laps), 29th (led 17 laps), fifth, and fifth in the seven-year pursuit of win No. 2. This time around, Rossi looks stout. He was ninth in Monday’s practice and rolls off fourth as the top non-Penske driver in the field. 

Indy 500 Sleepers

Pato O’Ward (+1,100)
O’Ward isn’t happy where his car is, but I wouldn’t count him out. In race practice, he was fourth, seventh, first, and fifth, respectively, on the speed charts. The Arrow McLaren driver starts eighth and has been great here with finishes of sixth, fourth, second, and 24th, respectively. 

The crash last year saw him in the Top 3 on the Lap 192 restart but crashed in Turn 3 after leading 39 laps, the most in four “500” tries. He led 17 laps in 2021 and 26 more in 2022. On ovals, O’Ward has finished in the Top 10 in 16 of 20 tries including two wins and six runner-up results. 

Santino Ferrucci (+1,800)
In five Indianapolis 500 starts, the AJ Foyt Racing driver has never finished outside the Top 10. He led 11 laps in a third-place effort last year. Sunday, he starts sixth. 

Felix Rosenqvist (+2,500)
With 14 of the last 15 Indianapolis 500 races being won by a driver over the age of 30, Rosenqvist boosts ahead of a few other drivers that could join this list. Not only that, Rosenqvist has led at least six laps in four of his five “500” starts, and if not for that Lap 183 crash while racing for sixth place, he had a shot at a second consecutive Top-5 finish in this race. 

Helio Castroneves (+4,000)
The last time Castroneves was a part-time NTT INDYCAR SERIES driver, he won the Indianapolis 500. Does history repeat itself? His peers said Castroneves’ Meyer Shank Racing Honda looks strong. He was sixth, 10th, 13th, and 13th, respectively, in race practice and knows what it takes to win here. 

Indy 500 Fades

Kyle Larson (+700)
Just 10 rookie drivers have won in the 107-year history of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” with only three of those since 1967. In that span, three drivers scored their first career NTT INDYCAR SERIES win in the Indianapolis 500 — Arie Luyendyk (1990), Buddy Lazier (1996), and Rossi (2016). 

Alex Palou (+1,200)
It would be fitting for Palou to pick up his first oval victory in a quiet couple of weeks at Indianapolis. Palou led 35 laps but was “taken to school” but Castroneves in his 2021 Indianapolis 500 runner-up. In 2022, he started second, and led 47 laps, but suffered heartbreak for the second consecutive year as he had one of the two fastest cars but got dealt a drive-through penalty he couldn’t overcome. 

Last year, he started on the pole and led 36 laps but dealt an unfortunate blow when Rinus VeeKay’s car made contact with his on pit road on Lap 94. He restarted 28th on Lap 100 and came back to fourth. Palou starts 14th Sunday. Was his time the last three years? 

Colton Herta (+1,500)
No Top-5 finishes in five Indianapolis 500 tries. Herta’s best finish was eighth in 2020. However, his Andretti Global entry has shown rapid pace. Herta was seventh, third, fourth, and second in race practices, which is why starting 13th isn’t a concern. Andretti Global, at one point, had three “500” wins in four years. They’re 0-for-5 since, with one Top-5 finish, two Top 10s and four laps led over the last two years, I’d fade. 

Indy 500 Prop Bet

Josef Newgarden Top 3 finish (+140 at DraftKings)

The last back-to-back winner occurred with Helio Castroneves in 2002. Odds aren’t high for Newgarden to do so. The safer play is a Top-3 finish.

Newgarden starts third, and in race practice this month, was fourth, fifth, and first, respectively. Over Newgarden’s last 14 NTT INDYCAR SERIES victories, 10 have come on ovals, including six in a row. 

Indy 500 Track Trends

The Indianapolis Motor Speedway remains 2.5 miles and races the same as it has the last several years. Chevrolet has the Top 8 starters leaving Honda trying for fuel mileage. 

Team Penske may start 1-2-3, but they’ve led 25 of the last 800 laps. Chip Ganassi Racing starts 14-16-18-21-27 but have led 49% of the same laps. Each has one win in that span. 

That’s why trends are your friend to decipher through a winner in the biggest race of the NTT INDYCAR SERIES season. 

Top Indy Stat

Just two of the last 13 Indy 500s have seen the driver lead the most laps win the race in the end. 

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Eric Smith - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Eric Smith has over a decade of experience in motorsports. Beginning with Bleacher Report in 2011 to becoming a nationally accredited motorsports journalist, Eric has been featured in numerous publications. His love of the sport helped spark a path to Covers in 2019 as an auto racing analyst providing insights into how to bet and who to be on the NASCAR scene.

NASCAR is a unique sport to wager on with the percentages of a win less than the 50-50 venture of stick-and-ball sports. However, Eric found a method to wager on multiple drivers to come away profitable in the end. His experience in the sport and his aforementioned technique has allowed Eric to decipher pages of data to compute a winner at a 70% clip.

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