Bills vs Dolphins Predictions: Live Updates and Betting News

This week's Thursday Night Football clash was hyped as a battle of superstar quarterbacks, but it ultimately came down to defense.

The Bills set the tone early with a pair of first quarter picks and kept the pressure up all night long, eventually forcing Tua Tagovailoa out of the game when he suffered a concussion late in the third quarter. The Fins looked predictably lost without their Pro Bowl QB, and failed to score in the second half, losing 31-10.

Tua's health will be a big storyline this week as he tries to bounce back from the fourth concussion of his young career. The Dolphins enter NFL Week 3 as -0.5-point favorites against the Seahawks, while the Bills are -3.5-point favorites against the Jaguars.

Tua's night has come to a premature end. Tagovailoa left the field on his own power with 4:24 remaining in the third quarter after colliding with Bills safety Damar Hamlin. He has since been diagnosed with a concussion - the fourth of his career - and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game.

Miami backup QB Skylar Thompson stepped in with the Fins facing first and goal but was unable to convert on four chances, getting sacked on fourth down by Von Miller. 

The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar situation: down by two scores at the half. Miami trailed Jacksonville 17-7 at the midway mark in Week 1 before proceeding to score 13 unanswered points. Shutting out the Bills will be another matter altogether. 

Buffalo has scored 24 points and has done so in just 11:30 seconds. Credit James Cook, who had daunting 90-1 odds to score three TDs entering the game, and Josh Allen, who has completed 9-of-13 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. 

Allen has -125 odds to record 100+ yards in the second half, while you can get Cook at +320 to score a fourth major before the final whistle blows. Cook's only other multi-TD game came in 2023 against the Cowboys when he tallied two scores in Week 14.

Many bettors are expecting Tua Tagovailoa to rack up plenty of passing yards tonight with running backs De'Von Achane a game-time decision and Raheem Mostert out, but I'm not so convinced.

For starters, Achane and Mostert are both capable pass-catching backs and combined for nine receptions on 10 targets for 86 yards in Week 1. If Achane is also out or limited, I see Jeff Wilson as less of a threat through the air, and rookie Jaylen Wright only caught 30 passes across three seasons in college. 

Plus, there’s a lot of familiarity between these divisional rivals, and Tagovailoa has averaged just 218.8 passing yards across his past four games against the Bills while going Under this total in three of four. I’m also anticipating Buffalo having success on the ground and aiming to win the time-of-possession battle. 

The Bills had the highest success rate on offense while ranking second in EPA per play and offensive DVOA in Week 1, and I don't think the Miami stop unit can keep them off the field after allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to run for 4.9 yards per carry in their opener. 

Give me Under 264.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel).  

The numbers are in, and FanDuel customers are divided on the Dolphins and Bills. Although 68% of tickets and 58% of handle are on the Buffalo moneyline, 55% of spread tickets are on the Fins.

One thing most customers can agree upon is this latest iteration of Thursday Night Football is likely to surpass 48.5 points. A staggering 72% of tickets and 64% of handle are shaded to the Over.

The Top 3 most popular anytime touchdown scorers by handle are Josh Allen (+100), James Cook (+175), and Jaylen Waddle (+180).

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Buffalo underwent an overhaul in the secondary this offseason, with many staples playing elsewhere in 2024. That shift is exacerbated by the loss of standout nickelback Taron Johnson, who will be out for Week 2 due to a forearm injury.

That makes the Bills susceptible to the passing game and Miami just so happens to have one of the best air attacks in the NFL. The duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is a “pick your poison” approach for most defenses, with those receivers combining for 12 catches and 239 yards in Week 1 – including an 80-yard touchdown screamer from Hill.

Hill could be the focus of the Bills defense, which makes Waddle the poison Buffalo opts to swallow. He’s had success versus the Bills in the past and player projections call for at least five receptions tonight, with some models flirting with six grabs. You can find his receptions total at 4.5 O/U at FanDuel with the Over priced at -140.

There’s no shortage of compelling trends ahead of Thursday Night Football. Here are three I’m tracking:

In two seasons as head coach of the Dolphins, Mike McDaniel is just 7-6 SU in divisional games but a profitable 10-3 ATS, including 5-1 SU and ATS against those rivals inside Hard Rock Stadium.

Sean McDermott is 21-5 SU versus the division since Tom Brady left New England, but just 13-12-1 ATS in those AFC East encounters. Put Buffalo on the road in a divisional game and it’s 8-4 SU but 6-6 ATS the past four years.

Buffalo is 5-2 SU and ATS as a road dog of less than a FG under McDermott (since 2017).

Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid had just one catch for 11 yards in Week 1 but he was on the field for 88% of Buffalo's offensive snaps and had an 83% route participation rate. 

Those numbers suggest he could play a bigger role tonight, especially against a Dolphins team that allowed opposing tight ends to snag 5.4 catches per game last year — the seventh-highest number in the league. Buffalo drafted Kincaid in the first round last season and he gained more confidence as the year wore on, hauling in 5+ receptions in nine of his last 13 games.

The Bills lack a true No. 1 receiver with rookie Keon Coleman posting a team-high four receptions for 51 yards last week. Dolphins shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey has been limited in practice with a hamstring strain but he played through that injury against the Jags. Expect Ramsey to suit up and cover Coleman which will will make it tough for the rookie wideout to gain separation. 

That will cause Allen to zero in on Kincaid who should eclipse his receptions total of 4.5 (-102 at FanDuel).

Check out my other Bills vs. Dolphins TNF prop bets ahead of game time. 

It will be hot and humid in Hard Rock Stadium tonight. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s but near 80% humidity will make it feel more like 106 degrees, despite this being a night game. Those conditions will test the conditioning and depth of these roster early in the season, as team are still working their way into “game shape”.

As is the case in Florida this time of year, thunderstorms are a constant threat. Rain is in the area of Miami Gardens before the 8:15 p.m. ET start, with heavy rain expected to stop around 6:00 p.m. ET. That should give plenty of time for the Bermuda grass surface to drain but field conditions could be slick in the first half.

Check out my NFL Week 2 weather round-up for more details.

According to look-ahead lines in the summer, Miami was a 1-point home favorite for Thursday Night Football. But after the events of Week 1, the Fins opened as 1.5-point chalk on Sunday night and took money early, moving the spread to -2 by Monday morning and eventually taking on a half point to -2.5.

As for the Over/Under total, the offseason odds painted the picture of a high-scoring game with the total at 51 points. The official Week 2 total opened at 50.5 O/U at FanDuel Sportsbook on Sunday evening and has since been bet down to 48.5 O/U – a field goal dip from the summer markets.

The short week brings plenty of injury concerns to both teams.

Buffalo got a scare when QB Josh Allen injured his left hand (non-throwing) in Week 1. He’s worn a protective glove this week but didn’t miss any practice time because of it. Defensively, the Bills suffered a sizable loss with nickelback Taron Johnson expected to miss Week 2 with a forearm injury.

Miami is thin at running back with Raheem Mostert missing Thursday’s game. Lead back De'Von Achane is also nursing an ankle injury and is questionable for kickoff. On defense, the Dolphins got some positive updates on injured players and are still without top LB Bradley Chubb (IR).

Check out our up-to-the-minute NFL Injuries page for further updates.

Josh Allen enters tonight's game with a non-throwing hand injury sustained in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals. And while there is some reason for concern, the two-time Pro Bowl QB has been an active participant in practice and appears undeterred ahead of tonight's TNF showdown. 

"Just trying to be as normal as possible," Allen told the press on Tuesday afternoon. "I felt like I threw it well today and was able to do all the things, so, ready to go."  

That positive prognosis has me feeling bullish about Allen going Over 1.5 passing touchdowns against the Dolphins (+102 at FanDuel). 

Allen has had success against the Fins in the past, putting up six total touchdowns in two matchups with Miami in 2023, and 33 total TDs across 12 career games — an average of 2.75 touchdowns per contest. Granted, the Bills’ receivers room looks a lot different than it did in previous years, thanks to a revamped depth chart in 2024.

Buffalo swapped out speeder deep threats for a bigger group of targets, with several WRs standing at six feet or taller. That’s added beef next to the Bills’ TE combo of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen great options inside the red zone. Running back James Cook has also proven a potential pass-catcher, with four TD catches in 2023.

Looking for more info ahead of kickoff? Read my Bills vs Dolphins predictions & picks.

The AFC East is expected to be a tight division race and that makes tonight's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins vital to the postseason hopes of both teams.

Miami is a short home favorite in Week 2 despite having trouble with its rival in recent years. Buffalo is 11-2 SU (6-6-1 ATS) in the previous 13 meetings with the Dolphins, going back to 2018, including 4-1 versus current Fins head coach Mike McDaniel.

Covers is counting down to kickoff for Thursday Night Football with our new Live Blog, giving you instant need-to-know intel and the best NFL picks for Bills vs. Dolphins on September 12.