49ers vs Seahawks Predictions, Picks & Updates for Thursday Night Football

Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb have talked about getting back to the run game this week after back-to-back losses. The Seahawks are averaging the most pass attempts per game on the year but that will be scaled back tonight versus the 49ers, who teams do not attempt a high volume of passes against.

No quarterback has thrown more than 32 passes against this defense. Even in their two indoor games, where passing volume and efficiency increase, they saw just 25 and 26 passes. The Seahawks have gotten away from what they've wanted to do, and it has cost them games. Look for Seattle to pound the ball tonight and lower the passing volume.

With that in mind, I'm taking Geno Smith Under 35.5 pass attempts (-115 at FanDuel).

The Seahawks have surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends with a healthy 7.73 yards per target and a 75.7 catch percentage through five weeks. George Kittle also turned his 12 targets into eight receptions for 64 yards and a score last week, and racked up 73 receiving yards on just three catches in Week 14 against Seattle last season.

I value Seattle pacing the NFL in pressure percentage and expect San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy to look Kittle’s way with short and intermediate passes to mitigate the Seahawks' pass rush.

Finally, Kittle has huge statistical correction ahead of his career-low 3.6 yards after the catch per reception, after posting 6.2 or more in each of his first seven seasons in the league.  

Give me George Kittle Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel) tonight.

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy had a rough day the last time he took on Mike Macdonald’s defense. In Week 16 of last season, the 49ers faced the Baltimore Ravens with Macdonald as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator. Purdy would be picked off for four interceptions and finish 18-for-32 passing for 255 yards with no touchdowns – panning out to a 7.3 QBR – in the 33-19 loss.

"The scheme is pretty similar and how they call the plays and stuff looks similar," Purdy told the media ahead of Thursday Night Football. "Obviously the personnel and everything is different."

Purdy has a passing yard total of 253.5 O/U and the “Yes” option on Purdy’s interception prop is priced at -128 with the “No” at -102. Purdy has four interceptions in 2024, including two picks thrown in the upset loss to Arizona in Week 5.

The Seahawks needed a shake-up in 2024, at least on offense. And a 5-13 Over/Under count in NFC West matchups the past three seasons is evidence of that.

No opponent knows your ins and outs like divisional opponents and since 2021 Seattle has struggled to score against those foes. Through those 18 divisional clashes, the Seahawks have scored more than 21 points only five times. That includes all six of last year’s games inside the NFC West, leading to a 1-5 O/U count.

The San Francisco 49ers will be without kicker Jake Moody for Thursday Night Football. Moody suffered a right ankle sprain and could miss more than a month, leaving San Francisco to sign Matthew Wright this week after trying out several replacement kickers.

Wright is 40 for 47 on FGAs with a long of 59 yards during his pro career and was on the Niners’ practice squad last season. The Over/Under on longest made field goal is 45.5 yards (Over -120) and a successful two-point conversion is paying +265.

View more NFL injury news ahead of kickoff.    

The one bright side to Christian McCaffrey's Achilles tendinitis this season has been the emergence of Jordan Mason, who has already set a career high in rushing attempts in his first five games of the year. 

NFL expert Rohit Ponnaiya expects the Niners to turn to the third-year running back early and often tonight, and likes Mason's odds of going Over 82.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel).

"The Seahawks gave up 185 yards on 36 carries against a one-dimensional Patriots offense in Week 2, allowed 116 rushing yards to Detroit in Week 4, and were gashed for 175 yards on 34 carries versus the Giants last week," Ponnaiya explains. "That's bad news against a Kyle Shanahan-led offense that loves to utilize its running backs and get them into space."

Mason ranks second in the league with 536 rushing yards on 105 carries, including finishing with 89 yards on a season-low 14 attempts in Week 5.

Read more of Ponnaiya's analysis in his 49ers vs. Seahawks Prop Bets column.

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Brock Purdy may not be known for his lighting fast speed, but the 49ers QB has been using his feet considerably more this season to help extend drives.

You can count Covers NFL expert Jared Hochman among those who believe Purdy will go Over 12.5 rushing yards tonight against the Seahawks. 

"Purdy will be facing a Seahawks team tonight that is No. 1 in QB pressure rate through five weeks, which could force him to run more if the pocket starts to break down," Hochman explains. "Seattle has only faced two mobile QBs so far this season but both were successful on the ground, with Bo Nix running for 35 yards in his NFL debut and Daniel Jones logging 38 yards last week. I expect Purdy to do whatever's necessary to help secure a win."

Read more of Hochman's analysis in his Week 6 NFL Best Bets and Player Props column.

The 49ers are favored by 3.5-points tonight, but there's an even bigger reason why NFL expert Joe Osborne likes San Francisco's chances of winning outright: The Niners have beaten the Seahawks by at least eight points in five straight games.

"Perhaps this will be the game to get the 49ers back on track as they’ve had the Seahawks' number in recent seasons," Osborne says. "These games haven’t even been close, with the 49ers winning by an average of 15.2 points. San Francisco is favored by 3.5 points ahead of this TNF showdown." 

See more of Osborne's analysis in his NFL Week 6 Betting Trends column.

George Kittle hauled in eight passes against Arizona, and while I don't expect him to be that busy tonight, I do like his odds of going Over 4.5 receptions (+116 at FanDuel) against Seattle.

The tight end remains a vital part of this San Francisco 49ers attack, having caught at least four balls in all four of his showings this season (missed Week 3). Kittle, who expected to play despite sore ribs, now faces a Seattle Seahawks defense allowing the ninth most receptions to TEs so far this season.

This will be the Niners’ first crack at Mike Macdonald’s defense as head coach in Seattle, but San Francisco faced Macdonald’s dynamic schemes when it played the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 last year. The 49ers lost 33-19 (thanks to four INTs) but Kittle balled out with seven catches on 10 targets for 126 yards.

Week 6 player projections all sit north of four receptions for Kittle, with several on the other side of this 4.5 reception total and flirting with five grabs Thursday night. With the Over 4.5 paying +116, there’s value in betting on Kittle to snatch at least five passes.

Looking for more analysis ahead of kickoff? Check out my 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions.

The 49ers are in strong position to pull out a win tonight, but NFL expert Todd Fuhrman is still down on their prospects for the remainder of the season.

He's deeply concerned the Niners has already blown multiple double-digit leads against divisional foes in the fourth quarter and doesn't like the team's lack of urgency.

"Something just feels off in San Francisco, " he says. "While the offense has taken a while to get its footing, I am starting to worry about some of the defensive injuries that are mounting, most notably to Talanoa Hufanga on the back end. I just feel like this 49ers team is vulnerable and they haven't even gone through the most difficult portion of their schedule."

Hear more of Fuhrman's views in this week's episode of The Sharp 600.

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are both coming off a loss but don’t have to wait long for a chance to get that sour taste out of their mouths.

The NFL Week 6 schedule has an NFC West war set for Thursday Night Football, with the 49ers pegged as 3.5-point road favorites at Lumen Field.

The Over/Under total for this primetime tilt has climbed from 46.5 to as high as 49 points, with injuries on the defenses and poor showings from these stop units in Week 5 helping convince Over money on Thursday night.

Covers is counting down to 49ers at Seahawks, giving you instant updates on injuries, odds and all the need-to-know info before the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.