Angels vs A's Picks and Predictions: Oakland Has Betting Edge in Ohtani-Kaprielian Rematch

Shohei Ohtani and James Kaprielian will be retaking the mound for the Angels and A's after going head-to-head just a week ago in a game that ended 3-1. Who will have the edge for the rematch? Find out in our MLB betting picks below.

Tony Sartori - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Aug 9, 2022 • 11:48 ET • 4 min read
James Kaprielian Oakland A's MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We have the second matchup of this three-game AL West intradivisional series with the Oakland Athletics hosting the Los Angeles Angels. Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will be taking the mound for the Angels, which makes this game a must-watch.

Los Angeles won last night’s game 1-0. Will they take care of business once again, or can the Athletics grab a win as a home underdog?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs Athletics on Tuesday, August 9.

Angels vs A's odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Angels were unveiled as consensus favorites of –165 on Monday morning and have since been bet up to –180. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 6.5 and has stayed at that number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Angels vs A's predictions

Picks made on 8/9/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Angels vs A's game info

Location: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Date: Tuesday, August 9, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports West, NBCS-Southern California

Angels vs A's betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shohei Ohtani (9-7, 2.83 ERA): One of the biggest stars in baseball will be taking the mound for Los Angeles in this matchup. Ohtani’s last start came against Oakland, a game in which the A's won 3-1. Despite taking the loss, Ohtani certainly did his job as he allowed just two earned runs while striking out seven over 5 2-3 innings pitched. That outing was yet another good start for Ohtani, who has strung together many of them recently. Over his last nine starts, Ohtani is 6-3 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Many of those starts came against powerful offenses, including Atlanta, Houston, and Seattle.

James Kaprielian (3-5, 4.32 ERA): Who was Ohtani’s pitching counterpart in that game against Oakland? Tonight’s projected starter, James Kaprielian. In a rematch of this exact same pitching matchup from August 3, Kaprielian will look to repeat his success. In that game, Kaprielian allowed just one earned run while striking out four over 5 1-3 innings. That good start continued a great run for the Athletics’ right-hander. Over his last eight starts, Kaprielian is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Kaprielian is a fastball-heavy pitcher, with 52.8% of his pitch count stemming from his 4-seam while relying on the slider to put away hitters. When mixing in his slider, Kaprielian finds a ton of success as opposing hitters possess a .186 BA and 34.2% whiff rate.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

James Kaprielian has allowed four or fewer hits in five of his last seven starts (71%). . Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. A's

Angels vs A's picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

While Oakland has not necessarily been winning games, they have done an excellent job in covering the run line. Over their last 12 games, the Athletics have either won or lost by one or fewer runs eight times (75%).

I expect this trend to continue as right-hander James Kaprielian is slated to take the mound for Oakland. As mentioned earlier, Kaprielian’s confidence should be extremely high in this game due to his recent pair of strong performances (see starting pitcher section). 

The Athletics have lost by one or fewer runs in each of Kaprielian’s last seven starts and goes against an Angels lineup that has struggled against him in the past. 

Through 70 career plate appearances against Oakland’s right-hander, this current Los Angeles roster possesses a mere .168 xBA, .319 xSLG, and .227 xwOBA. Since July 1, the Angels rank just 29th in the league in BA, 26th in SLG, 26th in OPS, 28th in wOBA, and 19th in hard hit percentage when facing right-handed pitchers.

The injury to Mike Trout certainly does not help, with these rankings proving how poor this lineup is from top-to-bottom outside of Ohtani. Following Kaprielian is one of the more underrated bullpens in baseball.

Oakland’s relief staff ranks 10th in the league in ERA, sixth in WHIP, sixth in BA, 10th in wOBA, and 11th in hard hit percentage since July 1. The entire Athletics bullpen will be available for this contest as last night’s starter, Cole Irvin, went eight innings while Zach Jackson closed it out in just 15 pitches.

The impact of Trout missing from the lineup cannot be understated, which has led to a poor ATS record for Los Angeles. In fact, the Angles have failed to win by two or more runs in 18 of the 31 games without the star outfielder (58%).

Prediction: Athletics +1.5 (-118 at Unibet)

Over/Under analysis

While the Athletics pitching staff should shut the Angels down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Shohei Ohtani. As mentioned in the starting pitcher section, Ohtani has been dealing on the mound recently. 

Because of this dominant stretch of pitching, there have been six or fewer total runs scored in five of Ohtani’s last eight starts (63%). And like the Angels have against Kaprielian, this A's roster haven't fared well with Ohtani.

Through 76 career plate appearances against Los Angeles’ right-hander, this current Oakland roster has a .176 BA, .235 SLG, and .226 wOBA. Since July 1, the Athletics rank just 24th in the league in BA, 17th in SLG, 20th in OPS, 21st in wOBA, and 21st in hard hit percentage when facing right-handed pitchers.

Following Ohtani is one of the league’s better bullpens. Los Angeles’ relief pitching ranks ninth in the league in BA, ninth in SLG, 12th in wOBA, and fourth in hard-hit percentage since July 1.

Like Oakland, the Angels will have their entire bullpen available for this game as last night’s starter, Jose Suarez, went seven innings while the two relievers that played each stayed under 10 total pitches. 

The Under has been a decent bet for each team recently, going 6-4 for Oakland over their last 10 games (60%) and 5-4-1 for Los Angeles over their last 10 (56%).

Prediction: Under 6.5 (-104 at BetRivers)

Best bet

With all that being said, I am not confident enough to take the A's on the run line because Ohtani has been so dominant on the mound, and I could really see him shutting down Oakland.

I am also not confident enough to take the Under, solely because 6.5 is such a low total and may be slightly over-adjusted due to how great each starting pitcher has been of late.

The one play I am most confident in is for the Athletics’ starter to have yet another good outing. Allowing four or fewer hits in five of his last seven starts (71%), Kaprielian should be able to stay Under this total once again.

Outside of Ohtani, this Angels lineup is terrible from top to bottom, especially without Mike Trout. In fact, Ohtani, Rengifo, and Fletcher are the only three players on the Angels' active roster with an xBA north of .250.

With such a poor lineup, Kaprielian should be able to just keep pumping that fastball all game and keep sending Los Angeles’ hitters back to the dugout.

James Kaprielian Prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (+100)

MLB parlays

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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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