The Los Angeles Angels took the series opener vs. the Atlanta Braves last night with a 4-1 final but now have a much tougher task facing NL Cy Young hopeful Spencer Strider.
Facing the Braves at home is never an easy task for any visiting pitcher but this is an Atlanta offense that hits lefties even harder. Should bettors be betting against Patrick Sandoval today after needing 98 pitches vs. the Tigers to record just 15 outs?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Braves for Tuesday, August 1.
Angels vs Braves odds
Angels vs Braves predictions
The Atlanta Braves crush right-handed and left-handed pitching and might even hit southpaws harder. Their .373 wOBA vs. LHP is 17 points higher than any other team in baseball and 23 points higher than the Braves’ wOBA vs. right-handers. It’s also 90 degrees at Truist Park. Add all this together and it could be a quick outing for starter Patrick Sandoval.
The lefty has a 3.67 ERA over his last six starts but has also seen some of the worst offenses in baseball in the Tigers, Yankees, Padres, White Sox, Royals, and Rockies. Before that, Sandoval gave up 10 total runs across two games vs. the Astros and Mariners.
Sandoval’s expected metrics are all higher than his actuals and now has to face the best offense in baseball in some time. All of this adds up to plenty of value on his Under 15.5 outs at plays money.
Since June 1, Sandoval has recorded 16 or more outs just twice in eight starts and needed 98 pitches to get 15 outs vs. a much weaker Tigers lineup (second game of a doubleheader to boot) in his last turn. Even if Sandoval has the groundball working, the Braves steal plenty of bases and can stay out of those double-play situations. The LA starter also has 41 walks over 98 innings and struggles to be efficient for the most part.
I’ll be cheering for 20 pitches an inning tonight and expect this Atlanta lineup to make the lefty sweat in the 90-degree heat and drive up that pitch count early and often. THE BAT is projecting 15.1 outs on just 88 pitches.
My best bet: Patrick Sandoval Under 15.5 outs (+105 at bet365)
Angels vs Braves same-game parlay
Patrick Sandoval Over 2.5 earned runs (-140)
Spencer Strider to record the win (-115)
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2+ runs scored (+375)
The Braves are hefty -240 favorites but with Spencer Strider expected to get deep in this game and the Atlanta bullpen ranking as one of the best units in baseball, per WAR, the record the win prop is talking to me. I've paired that with Sandoval Over 2.5 earned runs as Atlanta crushes lefties and the LA starter has seen a weak parade of opponents of late. Sandoval could also wear down in the 90-degree heat.
The real trick of this SGP that's not at true odds thanks to the correlation of the Strider and Sandoval bet, is with Ronald Acuna Jr. crossing the play twice. He has an OPS of .977 vs. lefties but is also hitting in front of the best lefty hitter in the lineup in Ozzie Albies, who is slashing .381/.396/.667 vs. LHP this season. If Acuna gets on, a multi-run game could be in the cards and is something he's done in two of his last three games.
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Angels vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Halos took a 4-1 win last night at Truist Park as a hefty +190 road dog. The win was their seventh in 10 games and the recent additions have them believing. However, knocking off Strider is different than Charlie Morton.
The books opened today’s line with Atlanta as a -260 favorite but that number has shortened up to -240 at the time of writing.
That puts today’s game at a similar price as yesterday and if you’re looking at former Strider outings, he was -200 at home vs. Zach Gallen two starts ago. The difference between Sandoval and Gallen is worth more than the current 40 points, but not much more. The -260 original line is closer to where I have this but bettors have to respect the market movement the other way. That’s keeping me off today’s side.
Strider is still striking out 40% of his batters faced and has seen an uptick in velocity which was a knock on the shorter pitcher in the middle of the season. The last time Strider didn't strike out at least nine batters was June 14, a stretch of seven straight games. He now faces July's highest strikeout team in LA at 27.8% which is why his K prop total is sitting at 9.5 and leaning to the Over.
Taylor Ward is out after taking a pitch to the head on the weekend but the Angels have filled those holes with the additions of Randal Grichuk and CJ Cron. The new bodies have bolstered a weaker lineup that is still without Mike Trout but still nowhere near that of the Braves, especially vs. lefties. Yes, Shohei Ohtani continues to be the best player on the planet, but teams are starting to pitch around him and take their chances with Mickey Moniak. The depth Atlanta has through nine batters is unmatched.
Atlanta still crushes left-handed pitching and ranks No.1 in wOBA and wRC+ vs. southpaws. That has helped them turn a +24% ROI on their team total Over across their last 46 games.
The 90-degree temperature should benefit the better offense today as well. The wind will also be blowing out to left field at 7 mph. The total opened at 9 and leans to the Over but it’s not a spot I’m backing but do lean to the Over.
Strider’s strikeout rate can bail him out of any trouble and although I like Sandoval’s groundball rate to keep this game closer, this is an Atlanta offense that can turn four at-bats into three runs, no problem, and could make it a short outing for the LA starter.
You don’t have to bet on every side and total and at -240/-250 and a total of 9, I’m off both. It’s also hard to imagine Atlanta dropping a second straight game at home with a pitcher who Atlanta is 17-4 SU when he starts.
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Trend to know
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games (+13.50 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Braves
Angels vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSW, BSSO |
Starting pitchers
Patrick Sandoval (6-7, 4.13 ERA): After a breakout 2022 campaign where he posted a 2.91 ERA with a 23.7% strikeout rate across 148 2/3 innings, Sandoval has regressed across the board in 2023. But after a brutal June, Sandoval settled into allow just four earned runs in 17 1/3 innings in July (2.08 ERA).
Spencer Strider (11-3, 3.73 ERA): Strider will be making his 22nd start of the year and the Braves have lost just four of those turns. His 39.6% K% is unheard of and the right-hander has at least nine punchouts in seven straight starts. His 97.94 mph fastball average in his last game was the highest since his fifth start of the season. THE BAT is projecting 103 pitches, 18.5 outs, 9.75 strikeouts, and 2.26 earned runs.
