Lucas Giolito will try to improve on a disappointing first start for his new team when the Los Angeles Angels wrap up a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday afternoon.
The Angels (56-52) went all-in at the trade deadline, bringing in Giolito and several other players in order to make a postseason push, while the Braves (68-37) continue to cruise with an 11-game lead in the NL East.
Giolito will face off against Yonny Chirinos on Wednesday, who is also making his second start for Atlanta after coming over from the Tampa Bay Rays.
We’ll discuss how these two recent additions stack up in our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Braves on August 2.
Angels vs Braves odds
Angels vs Braves predictions
As of today, the Los Angeles Angels are three games out of the final AL Wild Card position, with FanGraphs giving Los Angeles just a 14.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Yet the team decided to become a buyer at the trade deadline, likely in an effort to show Shohei Ohtani that the Angels want to win ahead of what will be a frenzied free agency bidding war this winter.
One of the biggest moves for Los Angeles was bringing in Lucas Giolito from the White Sox. While Giolito isn’t having his best season this year, he has been a frontline starter throughout his career, and once again has an ERA below 4.00 in 2023.
The Angels want Giolito to slot in as their No. 2 starter behind Ohtani. That Giolito didn’t really show up in his first start for the team, giving up three runs in just 5 1/3 innings against Toronto last week.
The Atlanta Braves also added depth recently, albeit in a different way. When the Rays put Yonny Chirinos on the waiver wire, Atlanta scooped him up. Chirinos showed potential to be a star early in his career but struggled to a 4.02 ERA with Tampa Bay this year in a role that saw him start four games but more frequently come out of the bullpen.
Chirinos didn’t impress in his first appearance for the Braves. He allowed four runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings against the Brewers last week. It’s hard to imagine that Atlanta feels that Chirinos will be a difference-maker down the stretch, as the team is likely buying into the 29-year-old’s long-term potential rather than expecting him to make a splash or be part of the postseason plan in 2023.
I don’t have much confidence in Chirinos, who has shown little to get excited about since returning from his long injury absence in late 2022. Meanwhile, Giolito is an experienced starter who can give the Angels quality innings and has the potential to recapture his All-Star-level form from just a few years ago.
With an advantageous pitching matchup, I think the Angels are at least on even footing with the Braves today, and perhaps have even the slightest of edges. Yet Los Angeles comes into today’s game as a notable underdog. Let’s take advantage of that value by backing the Angels this afternoon.
My best bet: Angels moneyline (+132 at Unibet)
Angels vs Braves same-game parlay
Angels ML (+128)
Under 10.5 (-115)
Lucas Giolito to record 5+ strikeouts (-205)
For today’s same-game parlay, let’s build on Los Angeles’ pitching edge to find some correlated picks and squeeze out value this afternoon.
That starts with taking the Angels on the moneyline. We’ll then pick the Under at 10.5 runs, as these two teams have played lower-scoring games in their first two meetings this week.
Giolito is capable enough to keep the scoring down, and I don’t expect Atlanta to just watch Chirinos struggle for too long before turning the ball over to its capable bullpen.
Finally, let’s back Giolito to get to five strikeouts. Giolito is averaging 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and even against a Braves lineup that makes contact, he should be able to get to this number this afternoon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Angels vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves opened today’s game as a -148 favorite. That number remains close to the consensus moneyline as of early Wednesday, with the best number on Atlanta coming in at -143. Meanwhile, we can find +132 on the Angels at some books.
The Braves have been great all season long, and have made bettors over 10 units on the year. The Angels have made up ground in the last couple of weeks, but are still down about two units on the moneyline in 2023.
As I noted in my best bet above, I’m taking the Angels on the moneyline today. This isn’t a sure thing by any stretch, but the combination of a favorable pitching matchup and the resurgent play by Los Angeles recently makes me think that the Angels should be a slight favorite tonight.
Instead, they come in as a clear underdog, which makes it an easy pick to take them to win outright.
The Over/Under comes in at a hefty 10.5 runs today. You can find EVEN money (+100) on the Over, or get a less generous -115 on the Under at that number.
The Angels have been dead even on the total all year long, though the Under now has a 52-50 record after the first two games of this series easily went below the number. The Over is 55-48 in Atlanta’s games this year.
These are two good offenses that will get to hit against pitchers that have been mediocre this year. That said, that’s not nearly enough for me to even entertain taking the Over at 10.5 runs. My strong lean is towards the Under today, though I’m not in love with paying extra juice to make that bet.
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Trend to know
The Angels have won 10 of their last 14 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Braves
Angels vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 12:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports West, Bally Sports South |
Starting pitchers
Lucas Giolito (6-7, 3.85 ERA): After spending the bulk of his career with the White Sox, Giolito came over to the Angels via trade as part of Los Angeles’ deadline push last week. While he hasn’t been able to recapture the form that made him a down-ballot Cy Young candidate from 2019-2021, he’s still a solid strikeout pitcher who has thrown to a decent 1.227 WHIP this year.
Yonny Chirinos (4-4, 4.34 ERA): After Tommy John surgery and a fractured right elbow cost Chirinos two years of his career, he came back in late 2022 and made 15 appearances with the Rays this season. While Chirinos wasn’t blowing away hitters in 2023, it was something of a surprise when Tampa Bay put him on waivers, and Atlanta scooped him up to add depth and potential long-term upside. Chirinos gave up four earned runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings against the Brewers on July 28 in his first Braves appearance.
