Angels vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Ohtani Continues to Mow Down Batters

The Boston Red Sox will try to solve Shohei Ohtani and complete a four-game sweep as they host the Los Angeles Angels for a Patriots’ Day showdown on Monday.

Boston (8-8) has won three straight against the Angels after suffering a four-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. Los Angeles (7-8) was off to a solid start this season before the Red Sox took the first three games of this series. 

L.A. a different team with Ohtani on the mound, but it hasn't always been able to take advantage of his greatness. We’ll break down who has the edge in Monday’s game in our free MLB picks for the Angels vs. Red Sox on April 17.

Angels vs Red Sox odds

Angels vs Red Sox predictions

Every time we think we’ve seen the best of Shohei Ohtani, it seems that the Japanese two-way superstar just keeps getting better. After leading his country to gold in the World Baseball Classic, Ohtani is off to a blistering start for the Los Angeles Angels this season.

At the plate, Ohtani is hitting .288 with three homers and nine RBI on the year, solid numbers that would make him an All-Star hitter on their own. But of course, Ohtani is more dominant on the mound. The 28-year-old is 2-0 with a league-best 0.47 ERA on the year in 19 innings of work. He is striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings and has a WHIP of 0.94 without giving up a single home run yet. 

In other words, Ohtani has been all but unhittable this year, even as he continues to lack the pinpoint control that many elite MLB pitchers enjoy. He also matches up rather well with a Boston Red Sox lineup that clearly prefers to hit against left-handed pitching.

The Red Sox aren’t wildly unbalanced in their hitting, but they are managing a .733 OPS against righties compared to a .766 OPS against southpaws. When you consider this particular righty has given up a total of six hits on the season, it feels like this will be a long day for Boston — at least as long as Ohtani stays in the game.

The Red Sox are countering with Brayan Bello, who is making his first start of the season after an underwhelming rookie campaign in 2022. Bellow went just 2-8 with a 4.71 ERA last season while putting up a 1.77 WHIP. Yet, there were some promising signs, such as the fact that Bello allowed up one home run in his 57.1 innings of work.

Still, Bello is undoubtedly a severe underdog when it comes to Monday’s matchup. While the Angels lineup is less effective against right-handed pitching due to its righty-heavy composition, Bello also struggled with reverse splits last year, with right handers batting .329 with an .827 OPS against the 23-year-old. 

While the Red Sox have had a great start to this series, it doesn’t look like a four-game sweep is in order. With Ohtani on the mound, the Angels should be a significant favorite, far longer than the numbers we’re currently seeing at sportsbooks. I’m taking Los Angeles and betting on the run line to get more value out as I back the Angels to salvage something out of this series.

My best bet: Angels -1.5 (+112 at FanDuel)

Angels vs Red Sox moneyline analysis

The Angels opened Monday’s game as a -160 favorite, with the line remaining pretty steady. You can find some sites offering Los Angeles at better odds, with the best number on the market Sunday night being -148. If you want to back the Red Sox, you can find odds as short as +140. 

Both teams have struggled on the moneyline and the run line this year, but Boston has the better numbers over the last few days. These two teams have faced off three times since Friday, with Boston outscoring Los Angeles 16-11. Notably, the Red Sox haven’t won a single game by more than two runs, but it still counts as three victories in a row.

Of course, the Angels haven’t enjoyed a pitching matchup nearly as favorable as this one all weekend. Having Ohtani on the mound, who has barely given up a hit this year, is a big boost to Los Angeles. The Angels are 2-1 with Ohtani pitching this season and haven’t given up more than three runs in any of those games. Ohtani himself has only allowed one run and hasn’t gone shorter than six innings.

Bello hasn’t proven he can compete at the major league level yet, let alone match the effort of a superstar like Ohtani. While Boston will get a boost by playing at home on Patriots’ Day, it’s always psychologically difficult to finish off a four-game sweep. It only gets harder when facing one of the best pitchers in the majors and a team that is likely better than the Red Sox overall. My money is on the Angels.

Angels vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at nine runs flat and stands there at the time of this writing. However, the Under is slightly favored. You can find odds as good as +100 on the Over, while -105 is the best number out there on the Under.

Both teams have made a habit of scoring runs early in the season. The Red Sox are third in the league, averaging 5.67 runs per game, while the Angels are scoring an average of 5.36 runs. With an average pitching matchup, you might expect these teams to easily get into double digits at Fenway Park.

Ohtani changes that equation a bit, however. Nobody has shown an ability to score off of the Japanese two-way star so far this year, and even heading back to 2022, he was elite when it came to run prevention. It’s hard to imagine the Red Sox — who haven’t been blasting righthanded pitching — getting much off of Ohtani on Monday.

L.A. may have better luck against Bello, but getting the Over on a nine-run total seems like a lot to ask when one team isn’t expected to contribute much to the score. I’m leaning toward the Under in Monday’s matchup. 

Angels vs Red Sox game info

Angels vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 0.47 ERA): Ohtani is coming off a season in which he merely finished second in the AL MVP race, while also taking fourth in Cy Young voting. He’s followed that up with an incredible start on the mound in 2023, giving up just six hits and one run while striking out 24 batters over 19 innings. Ohtani does have one weakness, however, as he has allowed 12 walks already this season as he struggles to find his control.

Brayan Bello (0-0, 0.00 ERA): A lanky right-handed pitcher with a high-90s fastball and solid secondary stuff, Bello made his major league debut last season and looked better late in the year after a slow start. While Bello pitched to a 1.77 WHIP and a 4.71 ERA, secondary metrics liked him better because he gave up just one homer and struck out 55 batters in 57.1 innings. The Red Sox are hopeful that Bello will pitch closer to his 2.94 FIP in 2023.

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