It seems like MLB odds don’t know what to do with the Toronto Blue Jays these days. They look like a very good team unless they're playing the AL East... and unless Alek Manoah is starting of course.
Yet, Manoah was still a betting favorite in yesterday’s series opener vs. the Houston Astros, a game in which Manoah recorded just one out in what turned out to be an 11-4 Astros win. However, today the Jays are similar favorites, except this time with ace Kevin Gausman getting the ball.
Are we seeing some recency bias after Houston’s throttling of Toronto last night and are the Jays giving us some value? I break it all down in my MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Blue Jays below.
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
Astros vs Blue Jays predictions
That’s exactly what I think is going on in this matchup. There's definitely some recency bias following the Houston Astros’ series-opening beatdown of the Toronto Blue Jays. Mix in the fact Kevin Gausman still somewhat gets overlooked as one of the best starters in the AL and we're looking at some value in the Jays to bounce back in this matchup.
Let’s start with Gausman, who's having another fantastic season. When he's locating his fastball that averages 94.4 miles per hour it makes his splitter one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball. He's pitching to a 3.31 expected ERA and is limiting opponents to a .229 expected batting average. Gausman is also striking out 12 batters per nine innings.
Now, one of his lone bad starts this season came against this same Houston team back on April 17, but things just seemed off for Gausman in that game. In a lone start against the Astros last season, he limited them to two runs on six hits while striking out 10.
Additionally, outside of their offensive outburst last night, the Astros have been an inconsistent lineup when facing right-handed pitchers this season. Despite a lineup full of big bats, Houston ranks a middling 12th in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 16th in wRC+ when facing righties.
The Astros counter Gausman with young right-hander Hunter Brown, who's also having a solid season. The 24-year-old right-hander owns a 3.61 xERA and is limiting opponents to a .236 xBA, with 10.7 strikeouts per nine.
So, this one may come down to which lineup is able to produce more consistently. And while it may not seem like the Jays' offense has lived up to expectations this season, this lineup still ranks third in batting average, fourth in OPS, and third in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching.
I’d still give the Blue Jays a slight edge in starters with Gausman on the mound, and a larger one when it comes to the respective lineups. I like the Blue Jays up to -150 with their ace taking the ball.
My best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-138 at SIA)
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Astros vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as -135 home favorites. Since then, they've bounced back and forth between -130 and -140.
Not only do I think Gausman is being a little undervalued here but he's also the perfect guy for this situation. Following a night where the Blue Jays needed 26 outs from their bullpen, you need innings from your next starter.
Gausman has averaged nearly 6 1/3 innings per start this season and has completed at least six innings in nine of his 12 starts. Best case scenario, he pitches six innings and hands the ball off to the team’s top three relievers after not pitching last night.
On top of that, Gausman has been even better at home, pitching to a 1.72 ERA and limiting opponents to a .206 batting average, and is striking out nine batters per nine innings.
Astros vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the number hit the board at an even 8 and that’s where it sits as of Tuesday afternoon, and I would have a very slight lean toward the Under. This game not only features two starters with strong expected ERAs but two of the better bullpens in the AL as well.
Houston’s relievers rank third in xFIP and lead the MLB in strikeouts per nine, while Toronto ranks fifth and fourth in those categories, respectively.
The Under is also trending in the right direction, going 9-3 in the Astros' last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter and is 5-2-1 in the Blue Jays' last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 6, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T Sportsnet, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Hunter Brown (5-2, 3.61 ERA): With the injuries in the rotation, Brown has been just what the Astros have needed. The right-hander has given them quality innings for much of the year with the team going 7-4 in his starts.
Kevin Gausman (4-3, 2.76 ERA): Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in the AL once again. The right-hander leads the AL in FIP and strikeouts heading into tonight's matchup.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games where the total was between 7 and 8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
