The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Houston Astros 3-2 on Saturday and look to take the series on Sunday afternoon at the Rogers Centre.
George Springer homered twice in the Jays' latest win, while the Astros couldn't get the same offensive performance that they got on Friday when they took the first game in Toronto by a score of 11-7.
Who will prevail on Sunday in the series finale?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Blue Jays on Sunday, May 1.
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line has opened with the Blue Jays as -145 favorites, with the total set at 7.5. Toronto is been favored for all three games of the series. The total for Saturday's game was 8.0, and the Under ended up cashing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Blue Jays predictions
- Prediction: Blue Jays ML (-145)
- Prediction: Under 7.5 (-105)
- Best Bet: Bichette Over 0.5 hits (-240)
Picks made on 4/30/2022 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Sunday, May 1, 2022
• First pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN-SW, Sportsnet
Astros vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.15 ERA): Valdez continues to be a steady mainstay in the Astros rotation, sporting a 3.15 ERA through four starts. In the southpaw's last appearance, Valdez went six strong innings against Texas, allowing only four hits and one earned run. Valdez holds a career ERA+ of 118 through five years pitching in the Majors.
Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.19 ERA): Gausman has proved his breakout season with San Francisco last year was no fluke, as he's been dominant since joining Toronto. The right-hander currently holds a league-best FIP and has a SO/9 rate of 11.3. Gausman finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting last year with the Giants and looks on track to get the same respect in the AL this year.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Jose Altuve 2B (Out), Michael Brantley (Questionable), Ryan Pressly RP (Out), Taylor Jones 1B (Out), Jake Meyers CF (Out).
Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez RF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out), Cavan Biggio 2B (Out), Ryan Borucki RP (Out), Nate Pearson RP (Out), Tayler Saucedo RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
Astros vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays currently are 14-8, which is pretty impressive considering Teoscar Hernandez has been out of the lineup. This will be Toronto's last game against the reigning AL champions this season, as the Astros and Jays have already met in Houston.
Toronto took two out of three games at Minute Maid Park against Houston last weekend. The Jays haven't been anything special on offense, averaging just 4.1 runs per game. However, the long ball continues to be their best friend, as Toronto is third in team home runs.
The Blue Jays most likely won't need an absurd burst of offense from their lineup on Sunday as they send ace Kevin Gausman to the mound. Gausman has been nothing short of spectacular since joining Toronto, with an ERA+ of 178 in 24 2-3 innings thus far.
Gausman won't be facing the lethal Astros offense that we have been accustomed to. Jose Altuve is currently on the IL, and Michael Brantley has missed the last two games due to "health and safety protocols". Houston has really struggled to hit in the first month of the season, with a team batting average of just .213.
While the Astros are sending a reliable pitcher to the mound themselves in Framber Valdez, the Jays' right-hand heavy lineup should do much more damage against the southpaw than they did yesterday against Luis Garcia. In fact, the Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four home games against a left-handed starter.
I like Toronto to win on Sunday and take the season series against Houston.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-145 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
With Hernandez out for the Jays plus Altuve and possibly Brantley sidelined for Houston, both of these offenses no longer scream Over like they used to.
The Under is 4-1 in Houston's last 5 overall and 14-5-3 in the Astros' last 22 on astroturf, which the Rogers Centre has.
The Under is also 5-2 in the Blue Jays' last 7 Sunday games, which may be telling us something about matinee weekend games. Factor in two solid starters on the bump Sunday, and I'm all in the Under.
I believe the public will jump all over the Over considering they love betting on high-scoring Jays games, so you may even want to wait closer to first pitch to see if you can get a better number on the Under.
Either way, I'm playing it.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
Bo Bichette has gotten off to a rough start to the season, batting just .200/.226/.289 through 21 games. Bichette's defense has also been a continuous issue with three errors already.
The 24-year-old shortstop got two hits yesterday, however, and should continue his upswing against Valdez. Bichette is a career .342 hitter against lefties, as opposed to .278 against right-handed pitching.
In order for the Blue Jays to get the win, look for Bichette at least one hit in the series finale against the Astros.
Pick: Bichette Over 0.5 hits (-240 at FanDuel)
