The Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers clash in an interleague matchup at American Family Field on Tuesday night.
This is the second contest in a three-game set, with the 'Stros hammering the Brewers 12-2 last night for their eighth win in a row.
Oddsmakers expect the road team to win again with MLB odds opening with Houston as a -135 favorite tonight. Here are my best Astros vs. Brewers MLB betting picks for May 23.
Astros vs Brewers odds
Astros vs Brewers predictions
Houston Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez went 3-4 at the plate last night with a pair of homers and five RBI.
The superstar slugger has been on fire lately, slashing .377/.433/.755 with five doubles and five home runs over the last 15 days. The 26-year-old is coming off a dominant season where he was second in the majors in OPS (1.019) and finished third in the AL MVP race.
The Milwaukee Brewers will try to cool off Alvarez by sending right-hander Colin Rea to the mound today. Unfortunately, the journeyman has a 5.52 ERA in 31 innings this year and ranks in the Bottom 25th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That's bad news against Alvarez, who's 11th in the majors in average exit velocity and 17th in hard-hit rate.
Rea has a diverse arsenal but primarily leans on his cutter, sinker, four-seamer, and sweeper. Alvarez has been raking against all those offerings, slugging .824 against cutters, .647 against sinkers, .593 against four-seamers, and .750 vs. sweepers. Expect Alvarez to have success again and take the Over 1.5 on his total bases.
My best bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
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Astros vs Brewers moneyline analysis
The Astros are coming off a 12-2 victory rout of the Brewers last night when they lit up Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes with four homers while getting a strong performance from their own starter Christian Javier. That was the eighth consecutive victory for Houston while Milwaukee has lost four of its previous five.
Despite a stacked lineup featuring Alvarez, the Astros have been below average at the plate this year and rank a modest 19th in the majors in OPS (.708). The reason they've gotten off to a 28-19 start has been the play of their pitching staff but with injuries to Lance McCullers Jr, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy, they've had to try out some new arms in their rotation.
That includes today's starter J.P. France, who will be pitching in just his fourth game as a pro. The 28-year-old rookie looked very sharp in his first two outings, limiting the Mariners and White Sox to six hits and one run over 11 2/3 innings.
However, he was shredded in his previous start last Wednesday when he surrendered nine hits and six runs before getting the hook in the fourth inning against the Cubs.
The Brewers will respond with Rea who has yet to win a game in six starts this year while pitching to a 5.54 FIP with a 1.29 WHIP. Rea entered this season having logged just 20 innings in the Big Leagues since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017, and he played in Japan for the last two years.
The Brewers have been slightly worse than the Astros at the dish, ranking 21st in the majors in OPS (.703).
The Astros have the edge in the bullpen with their relievers ranking second in the majors in ERA (3.01) and OBA (.216), while boasting the best WHIP (1.17). Milwaukee's bullpen ranks 21st in ERA (4.22), OBA (.241), and WHIP (1.33).
Astros vs Brewers Over/Under analysis
The Astros struggled at this dish earlier in the season but they seem to have shaken off the World Series hangover and have turned things around lately.
Over the last 15 days, they are fourth in the majors in OPS (.803) while plating 5.0 runs per game. They should be able to put some runs on the board against Rea and a shaky Brewers bullpen.
Although the Brewers have been mediocre at the plate, there is reason to think they might have success tonight. France has flashed potential but his previous start last week showed that he's still very unreliable.
In addition, while Milwaukee's hitting stats have been subpar, they have been magnified by the Brewers' struggles against southpaws. Against right-handers like France, the Brewers have a respectable .247 batting average with an OPS of .726.
Astros vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T Houston, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
Starting pitchers
J.P. France (1-0, 4.11 ERA): The rookie was outstanding in his first two outings but was lit up by the Cubs in his third career start last Wednesday. France was phenomenal at Triple-A Sugar Land this season, pitching to a 2.33 ERA with an OBA of .136 across 19 1/3 innings. However, he's struggled with his control and walked 11 batters in those 19 1/3 innings while surrendering 51 walks in 110 2/3 innings with Sugar Land last year.
Colin Rea (0-3, 5.52 ERA): Rea looked very sharp in his first start of the season but has struggled since, pitching to a 6.40 ERA over his last five starts. He's coming off a rough outing against the Royals, where he allowed six hits and four runs through 3 2/3 innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Astros are 66-26 in their last 92 games vs. winning teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Brewers
