It's Game 5 of the World Series between the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals. With the series all tied up at two games apiece Gerrit Cole takes to the mound looking to bounce back from a rare shaky performance in Game 1.
From the first pitch to the final out we break down the best bets for this Fall Classic matchup.
HOUSTON ASTROS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS (+195, 7.5 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
Cole is one of the best in the business but got knocked around early in Game 1. However, he's quite simply too good - and consistent - for that to happen again.
There's a reason Cole went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP during the regular season. Expect him to come out fired up and shut down the Nats in the first inning.
PICK: Bottom of the first inning hit - No (-120)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
While Cole is an absolute stud, the Nationals will have to make do with Joe Ross who was a late replacement for Max Scherzer. Ross went 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA in nine regular season starts but his overall ERA across all apearances was 5.48.
During the regular season, Houston ranked fourth in the majors by plating 3.26 runs per game in the first five innings, while the Nats ranked 11th with 2.82.
We like the 'Stros to have the lead after the fifth inning.
PICK: First Five Innings runline Houston -0.5 (-180)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Nationals outfielder Juan Soto was the hero of Game 1 getting three hits including a home run and a two-run double off Cole. Soto has just one hit in his last ten plate appearances since Game 1 and might be due for another huge performance.
Cole is a stud but his bread and butter is a four-seam fastball which he has a tendency to throw high. Usually he throws it with enough heat to make batters whiff but it just so happens that the recently turned 21-year-old Soto is one of the best high-fastball hitters in the majors.
Consider Soto worth a flier to hit a round-tripper at +350.
PICK: Juan Soto Over 0.5 home runs (+350)
FULL GAME TOTAL
These teams combined for 11.89 runs per game during the regular season, but the playoffs are a different beast entirely, especially with quality pitching night in and night out.
In the postseason Washington is batting .246 and scoring 4.57 runs per game which is actually not that bad all things considered. While Houston is batting .231 and plating 4.00 runs per game.
That said, this Houston lineup is simply loaded with talent including Alex Bregman, Joe Altuve, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. They've been waiting to bust out and produced eight runs last night. Ross is relatively inexperienced in the postseason and while the 26-year-old had a respectable ERA during his starts, his WHIP was a concerning 1.46.
When you also consider that he rarely pitches deep into games and you can be sure that Washington will have to bring out their unreliable relievers earlier than they'd probably like. We like Houston to generate quite a few runs tonight. Take the Over.
PICK: Over 7.5 (-110)
FULL GAME SIDE
Game 1 had Cole and Houston installed as massive -200 favorites and that was against an ace in Max Scherzer. Cole should have a much easier time, as should Houston sluggers, facing off against Ross.
Cole may have been rocked in Game 1 but that was his first loss since May 22. He went 25 consecutive starts without a loss, going a ridiculous 19-0 with a 1.59 ERA in that span.
With the Astros coming off two straight convincing wins by a combined score of 12-2, take them on the runline.
PICK: Runline Houston -0.5 (-135)
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