There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Wednesday, with plenty of player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best MLB player props for Wednesday's home run market. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.
Here are my free MLB picks on Wednesday, April 2.
Best MLB home run props today
Shea Langeliers (+400 at DraftKings)
Gabriel Arias (+950 at DraftKings)
Aaron Judge (+220 at FanDuel)
HR picks for April 2
Shea Langeliers (+400 at DraftKings)
The Athletics host the Chicago Cubs in the afternoon portion of the day's MLB slate. Right-hander Jameson Taillon takes the mound for Chicago, and he should serve as a good fade candidate.
Taillon got shelled in his first start of the season, surrendering six runs on nine hits in under five innings. Regression is expected this season for Taillon, given that he far outperformed his analytics in 2024.
Last season, he ranked in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. There may not be a better candidate to capitalize on that expected regression than A's catcher Shea Langeliers.
Through three plate appearances against Taillon, Langeliers is 2-for-3 with a home run. The former ninth-overall draft pick is a power hitter who finished one home run shy of 30 last season.
For the year, he ranked in the 80th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
Gabriel Arias (+950 at DraftKings)
Just 35 minutes after the first pitch of the Cubs-A's game, the San Diego Padres host the Cleveland Guardians. We’re backing Cleveland third baseman Gabriel Arias to continue his dominant start to 2025.
His slash line is impressive across the board, and his underlying metrics support that success. It’s likely to continue against right-hander Dylan Cease, a pitcher against whom Arias has gone 4-for-7 with a home run and two doubles.
Across those seven at-bats, Arias boasts a 1.286 slugging percentage and .752 weighted on-base average. Meanwhile, Cease struggled in his first start of the season, allowing three runs in under five innings, one of which came from a home run.
Aaron Judge (+220 at FanDuel)
Later in the evening, the New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks. Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona and, like Cease, looks to shake off a poor start to 2025.
In his first outing, Gallen surrendered four runs through four innings. One of those runs came via a home run, and he has struggled with hard-hit contact over the past few years.
In 2024, the right-hander ranked in the 19th percentile in average exit velocity and the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate. Those struggles could be a problem against a hitter of Aaron Judge’s caliber.
Continuing his dominance from last season, Judge boasts a 1.333 slugging percentage, 1.833 OPS, and four home runs through 18 plate appearances this year.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Shohei Ohtani
(+265) - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
(+600) - Elly De La Cruz
(+350) - Mike Trout
(+425) - Aaron Judge (+200)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA.
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