The Houston Astros face off against the San Diego Padres in MLB action tonight.
This game has the lowest total on the board, and my Astros vs Padres predictions are betting on at least one of these teams to struggle at the dish. Here are my MLB picks for this interleague showdown.
Astros vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres team total Under 3.5 (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
The biggest weakness for the San Diego Padres this year has been left-handed pitchers. The Padres have an MLB-best batting average of .274 with an OPS of .765 against righties, but those numbers plummet to .240 and .691 against southpaws.
That's bad news for them tonight, with the Houston Astros giving the pill to one of the best lefties around in Framber Valdez.
Valdez is 14-6 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through 26 starts, and he's been lights out since the start of August — pitching to a 1.33 ERA with an OBA of .128 across seven starts.
The 'Stros also have one of the top bullpens in the majors, with their relievers fourth in the majors in ERA (3.47) and WHIP (1.23). That bullpen just happens to be anchored by another lefty in All-Star closer Josh Hader (3.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 66 1/3 innings).
With the San Diego lineup struggling against LHP and playing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, take the Under 3.5 on its team total.
Astros vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres team total Under 3.5
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 strikeouts
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs
The Padres are starting Dylan Cease, who's punched out 215 batters through 176 innings and sits in the Top 10th percentile in strikeout and whiff rate. He has a history of dominating Alvarez, striking him out eight times in 13 at bats.
While Cease owns Alvarez, he's struggled against Altuve, who's gone 5-for-11 at the plate with a pair of dingers against him. Altuve leads Houston in both batting average (.301) and runs (89), and the six-time Silver Slugger recipient has been even better lately — batting .333 and plating 15 runs in his last 20 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Padres odds
Astros vs Padres live odds
Astros vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston -110 | San Diego -110
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+154) | San Diego +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110)
Astros vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Even though the total opened at just 7.0, it saw immediate action on the Under, dropping it to 6.5 shaded towards the Over at -120.
- The Astros have won five of their last six games to improve to 82-69 on the year.
- The Padres are 5-2 in their last seven and have an 86-66 record.
- The Padres are 9-3 in Cease's last 12 starts, while the Astros have gone a sizzling 13-1 in Valdez's previous 14 starts.
Astros vs Padres trend
The Padres have hit the Under on their team total in nine of their last 13 games at home (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Padres.
Astros vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHIN, SDPA |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (14-6, 2.91 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (13-11, 3.58 ERA) |
Astros vs Padres latest injuries
Astros vs Padres weather
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