Trust the best team in baseball once again.
The Tampa Bay Rays took the first of an intriguing three-game set on Monday night and will be back on Tuesday to try and secure yet another series victory, this one over the mighty Houston Astros. With another sturdy arm on the bump for the home team, is there any hope here for the defending champions?
Let’s break down Astros vs. Rays in our MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 25.
Astros vs Rays odds
Astros vs Rays predictions
Luis Garcia will get the ball here for the Astros, and he’s been a bit of a mystery this season. It wasn’t as if he was an incredible arm in 2022, posting a 3.72 ERA in 28 starts and allowing 24 home runs, but he was as consistent as they come in the middle or back end of a rotation.
This season has started off on the wrong foot. Garcia’s ERA sits at 5.14 thanks to the fact that he’s allowed eight barrels already out of 58 batted balls, including three home runs. He’s compounded that with a below-average 8.8% walk rate, though his strikeouts are up a hair which has helped out.
With that, I find it very hard to believe he has the tools to slow a Rays offense that looks absolutely incredible right now. Tampa Bay owns a stupid .249 ISO and a league-leading 153 wRC+, possessing some incredible power.
This is a nightmare scenario for Garcia, and with that, I don’t give the Astros a great chance here. Houston is just 14th in wRC+ over the last week with a very meek 5.8% walk rate and .135 ISO. The tough news here is that Drew Rasmussen’s only real weakness is walks; his career barrel rate of 6.2% is incredibly impressive and his strikeout rate is a high 30.6%.
The Astros have been a contact-oriented offense over the last couple of weeks with no power, which should make them minced meat here.
My best bet: Rays -1.5 (+118)
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Astros vs Rays moneyline analysis
I’m rather surprised to see the Rays all the way out as far as -200 on the moneyline against a name-brand opponent like the Astros, but it’s absolutely deserved. We touched on the big discrepancy in the offenses above, and the matchup here against Houston really should work in Rasmussen’s favor.
If there’s one unknown here, though, it’s Garcia. He’s turned in some excellent outings over the last few years and is plenty capable of raising his level in a game like this. On paper, though, it doesn’t seem very likely it’ll be tonight.
With that, I’d feel very good about taking the Rays on the moneyline, and would give a very strong nod that way. I’m just so confident in them that I’m willing to lay the runs.
Astros vs Rays Over/Under analysis
The Rays and Astros went Over the total on Monday night, but it was a product of a flukey start to the game for Taj Bradley. Once he settled in, Houston’s offense looked very timid.
With that, I would definitely lean Under here. Both bullpens are very good, and to talk about last night’s game yet again — we need to remember that Jose Urquidy started that game. Garcia is definitely a better starter than Urquidy is, and even then, the Rays only scored six runs throughout the course of the game.
I think Tampa Bay will hit some homers here, but I don’t expect a huge night. I think the total here is just right, but the contrarian and smart play is on the Under.
Astros vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ATTH, BSSUN |
Astros vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Garcia (1-2, 5.14 ERA): The righty is fresh off his best start of the season to this point. He allowed just two hits over seven scoreless frames against the Blue Jays with nine strikeouts, a welcomed sight after allowing 12 earned in his first 14 innings of the year.
Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 2.01 ERA): The 27-year-old continues to impress. Aside from a clunker in Toronto a couple of weeks ago where he allowed five runs, Rasmussen has pitched three scoreless outings and has struck out at least seven in all three of those.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 28-9-3 in the last 40 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rays
