The Boston Red Sox will look to get a pitching performance to match their recent offensive outburst when they host the Houston Astros for the start of a three-game series at Fenway Park tonight.
The Red Sox (61-52) sit 1.5 games out of a playoff spot but are home favorites in the MLB odds against the Astros (59-55), who currently lead the AL West.
There’s a marquee pitching matchup on tap in tonight’s game, and I’ll look at what that means for bettors in my Astros vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Friday, August 9.
Astros vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 10 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Sportsbooks have aggressively set their lines for tonight's matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros. In particular, the total stands out, as most books have the Over/Under at a flat 10 runs — a surprisingly high number given the overall success that Tanner Houck and Ronel Blanco have enjoyed this year.
Houck is doing a tremendous job at keeping the ball in the park, allowing just eight homers in 134 innings of work. The Boston right-hander has also been excellent at home, holding opponents to a .597 OPS, 3.08 WHIP, and allowing just 0.47 homers per nine innings.
That has me looking at Houck to have a good outing against the Astros at home tonight. Houston is averaging 4.55 runs per game — a little above the MLB average — but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Over its last 21 games, Houston has been anemic, scoring an average of just 3.38 per game while putting up a dismal .301 OPS.
At the same time, the Astros pitching has kept them in games, throwing to a 3.45 ERA to allow Houston to go 10-11 during this stretch. Blanco has seen his numbers suffer a bit over the past month, but it’s hardly like they’ve fallen off a cliff, as he’s pitched to a 4.28 ERA and a .203 opposing batting average in his last six starts.
That combination has meant that the Astros are essentially never playing games with double-digit totals. Houck should do his part in keeping that streak intact, and even if Blanco doesn’t get the start, Houston has plenty of quality arms to keep tonight’s game within reason.
I’m taking the Under on this inflated total.
Astros vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 10
Red Sox moneyline
Tanner Houck Over 4.5 strikeouts
My bet on the Under is based on the Astros’ trends this season and confidence in Houck, so that makes for a fairly straightforward same-game parlay.
Along with the Under, I’ll take the Red Sox to win outright at home tonight. The Sox have won five of their last seven, and with more confidence in their starter tonight, they are the right side to take.
I’ll also throw in a bet on Houck to hit the Over on 4.5 strikeouts. He’s reached that mark in 15 of 22 starts this year, and while the Astros don’t strike out a ton, Houck should be able to hit this modest total at Fenway.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Red Sox odds
Astros vs Red Sox live odds
Astros vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-185) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Houston +115 | Boston -140
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Astros vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox have won about six units on the moneyline for bettors this year, while the Astros are down roughly nine units this season.
- Boston is 13-9 in Houck’s starts this season, and Houston has gone 14-7 when Blanco takes the mound in 2024.
- The Under has cashed in 59% of Astros' games this year, while the O/U is 59-48 in Boston's contests.
- The Under is 6-2 in Houston’s last eight games overall.
Astros vs Red Sox trend
The Astros have played to totals of 10 runs or less in 24 of their last 25 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox.
Astros vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 8-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, NESN |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.98 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.09 ERA) |
Astros vs Red Sox latest injuries
Astros vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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