Astros vs Twins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bregman Continues to Show Up In Playoffs

After yesterday’s beatdown of the Minnesota Twins, the Houston Astros are now one win away from advancing to the American League Championship Series for the seventh consecutive season. Their World Series odds saw a bump and for good reason.

The Astros plated nine runs in Game 3 and playoff Cristian Javier did the rest as Houston took a 2-1 series lead over Minnesota.

The Twins postseason hopes now rest on the arm of Joe Ryan and they will be favored to extend this ALDS to a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday... but it’s hard to look at Houston as underdogs and not see betting value.

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB picks for the Astros vs. Twins. Be sure to also check out Covers' MLB playoff predictions for more postseason analysis.

Astros vs Twins odds

Astros vs Twins Game 4 odds

Astros vs Twins series odds

Team
Astros	-425	-385	-350	-380	-400
Twins	+320	+290	+275	+300	+310

Astros vs Twins predictions

Outside of Pablo Lopez, the Minnesota Twins have been unable to silence the Houston Astros' bats. Houston has plated 17 runs through the first three games of this series, including nine runs on 14 hits in yesterday's win. And it appears its postseason experience is starting to pay off.

You don’t get to six straight Championship Series without guys who know how to show up when the lights are brightest, and one of the guys who has been there for the entire ride has been Alex Bregman.

The Astros third baseman quietly had another solid season: hitting .268 with a .804 OPS while hitting 25 home runs and driving in 98 runs. Bregman showed in Game 3 why he has been a key piece to this incredible Astros run — going 2-for-5 with a home run — and I think there is some value in him to stay hot in today’s Game 4.

That’s because Bregman matches up well against Twins starter Joe Ryan. Bregman is an excellent fastball hitter and Ryan uses his fastball nearly 57% of the time. That has resulted in the Astros’ third baseman getting the better of the Twins’ right-hander in previous meetings. Bregman is 3-for-6 with a double, a dinger, and two walks in his career vs. the Minnesota hurler. 

Then there is the fact Ryan has struggled down the stretch for the Twins. This is part of the reason why he hasn’t seen the mound until this point in the postseason. Over his final three starts of the regular season, Ryan was pitching to a 7.31 ERA while surrendering a .928 OPS to opponents over that stretch. Those starts came against the Reds, Angels, and Rockies. 

Trying to figure things out against this Astros’ lineup is never a good thing. At a +160 price tag, it’s worth backing Bregman to stay hot in this matchup and go Over 1.5 total bases in Game 4.

My best bet: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+160)

Astros vs Twins same-game parlay

Bregman Over 1.5 TB

Jeffers Under 0.5 hits

Urquidy Over 1.5 BB

+750 at bet365

While Bregman and the Astros’ experience is starting to show, the Twins' inexperience is starting too as well.

Some of the hitters who have been key contributors in the second half have struggled so far in the postseason, including catch Ryan Jeffers. He is just 2 of 16 (.125) with six strikeouts in the postseason, and now he gets a tough matchup vs. Jose Urquidy. Jeffers is hitless with two strikeouts in six plate appearances vs. Urquidy. So, I’m adding Jeffers to go 0-fer in Game 4.

Speaking of Urquidy, he’s been mostly used out of the bullpen since returning from his injury in August and his command has left him at times. While the Twins’ lineup has a lot of flaws, they still take their walks, so I’ll close out this SGP with Urquidy Over 1.5 walks — something he has done in five of his last 10 appearances.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Minnesota opened this matchup as a -120 home favorite thanks to a perceived slight edge in the pitching matchup, and the Twins have seen the very early action moving to the -125 range. But I can’t look at the Astros as underdogs in this spot and not see value.

Houston has been one of the best road teams in baseball all season long, posting a 51-30 road record in the regular season.

The Astros will now try and eliminate the Twins by handing the ball to Urquidy. Clearly, it has been a rough season for the right hander, which featured injuries, not a lot of Ks, and a high home run rate. But his stuff is the type of stuff that can get the Twins to whiff.

I think both starters will be on a short leash here and would give the edge to the Astros group of relievers. With the way Houston is hitting right now, I think there is some value at +105 or better.

When it comes to the total it hit the board at 8.5 and has been dropped a half run to sit at an even eight as of Wednesday afternoon. I’m staying away from the total in this one because despite the fact Minnesota has not been hitting well in the postseason, if Urquidy misses his spots the Twins have the ability to take him yard.

Trend to know

The Astros are 52-30 on the road this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Twins

Astros vs Twins game info

Starting pitchers

Jose Urquidy (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Urquidy spent much of the season on the IL but is coming off arguably his best start of the season, shutting out the Diamondbacks on two hits over six innings. The RHP has 12 postseason appearances under his belt.

Joe Ryan (0-0, 0.00 ERA): What was a solid season ended on a sour note for Ryan, surrendering 13 runs on 20 hits over his final three starts of the regular season. This will be the right hander’s first postseason appearance.

Latest injuries

Weather

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic