The New York Yankees’ bats have started to wake up, powering them to wins in five of their last six games to climb back to the .500 mark.
But those wins came against the Baltimore Orioles and the Detroit Tigers. Things will be a little tougher when they open a three-game set against a Houston Astros team that has won eight of its last 11 games overall.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Astros vs. Yankees on Tuesday, May 4, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Astros vs Yankees odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonNew York landed on TwinSpires' odds board as -117 chalk and is up a few cents to -125 at 3 p.m. ET. However, ticket count and money are both in the 2/1 range on Houston. "The Astros are a trendy 'dog, and there's small sharp money on the Yankees," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total is down to 8.5 (Over -118) after opening at 9, with tickets and money both about 3/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAstros vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.44 ERA): It has been an inconsistent year thus far for Greinke. The cerebral right-hander has four quality starts in five trips to the bump but his other two outings were not so great. But overall Greinke has been solid and, while he might not have the velocity he once had, his mix of pitches and ability to locate creates a lot of soft contact.
Domingo German (2-2, 4.05 ERA): German has also been inconsistent to start the season, but the right-hander is coming off the best start of the year. German blanked the Orioles on just three hits over seven innings last time out but is still finding too much of the plate with his fastball and has been hit hard at times.
Weather
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Key injuries
Astros: Enoli Paredes RP (Out), Pedro Baez RP (Out), Blake Taylor RP (Out), Austin Pruitt RP (Out), Josh James RP (Out).
Yankees: Darren O'Day RP (Out), Zack Britton RP (Out), Clarke Schmidt RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 8-0-1 in Greinke's last nine road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 6-0 in German's last six starts as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees.
Moneyline pick
The Yankees are playing well after a rough start, plating 5.5 runs per game while hitting .284 as a team over their last six contests. That said, Greinke should provide a bit of a tougher challenge.
While Greinke is coming off a bit of a rough start, he has allowed just two earned runs or fewer in three of his five starts and has a solid 1.15 WHIP for the season. He's also the type of starter who can tie the Yanks’ hitters in knots. And while they are hitting better, they still have just a .203 average against right-handers this season.
On the other side, the Astros are not letting the fact that they’re a bunch of cheaters get them down this season. Houston ranks sixth in scoring, fifth in average, and ninth in OPS. On top of that, the team is very patient at the dish, striking out fewer times per game than anyone else in the big leagues.
Until the Yankees show they can consistently hit against better teams, there is good value with the Astros as short underdogs.
PREDICTION: Astros (-105)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, 9 seems a touch high for this matchup. First of all, while the Yankees have seen an uptick in runs recently, they still rank 26th in scoring — at just 3.95 runs per game — and are 25th in batting average. And, as mentioned, the veteran Greinke could be a tough assignment for them.
While German has had his issues this season, he still has a 1.30 WHIP and hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a start. And if German does get in trouble, you know Aaron Boone will have no issue handing the ball off to arguably the best bullpen in the majors, which ranks second in ERA and first in WHIP and opponent batting average.
With the Astros averaging just 3.13 runs per game over their last eight contests, this game should be a low-scoring one.
PREDICTION: Under 9 (-110)
Astros vs Yankees betting card
- Astros (-105)
- Under 9 (-110)
Picks made on 5/04/2021 at 8:22 a.m. ET
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