The Battle of the Bay rages in for Game 2 on Wednesday night in Oracle Park between the Oakland A’s and the San Francisco Giants.
To add extra intrigue to this rivalry, fans for both teams joined in on “Sell the team!” and “Stay in Oakland!” chants during Game 1 on Tuesday. It was a spectacle to see featuring a sell-out crowd of over 40,000.
If that wasn’t enough, Giants top prospect Marco Luciano is expected to make his anticipated debut after blasting a 110 mph home run in Triple-A last night.
Looking at the MLB odds, I have my eye on the total for this one. Find out why in my MLB betting picks for A's vs. Giants on Wednesday, July 26.
Athletics vs Giants odds
Athletics vs Giants predictions
Game 1 was a pitchers’ duel in which San Francisco’s Alex Cobb and Oakland’s Ken Waldichuk both found success in an eventual 2-1 win for the Giants. Kapler’s side mustered just four hits in the victory.
I think Game 2 looks a lot different with two struggling starting pitchers on the bump.
Rookie left-hander Hogan Harris gets the nod for Oakland. He’s been mostly unimpressive, posting a third-percentile chase rate, 22nd-percentile average exit velocity, and 23rd-percentile hard-hit rate. He doesn’t make batters miss and allows hard contact, so there’s not a ton to like.
He faces a San Francisco Giants lineup that typically performs well at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game at Oracle Park. They get a much-needed boost with top prospect Marco Luciano receiving the call-up to presumably make his debut at shortstop.
While their season-long numbers against left-handed pitching may not impress, they're better positioned now to score some runs with a healthier lineup and the infusion of young talent.
Players like Wilmer Flores (.788 OPS against lefties since 2021), J.D. Davis (.729), Patrick Bailey (.878), Austin Slater (.863), and Luis Matos (.734) all have a fine OPS against southpaws and this is far from a difficult matchup.
Left-hander Alex Wood is the expected starter for San Francisco, although an official declaration has not been made as of the time of this writing. He’s fallen off a cliff this season, posting his worst career numbers in a majority of metrics.
He doesn’t throw hard (20th percentile fastball velocity) and doesn’t generate much spin (third percentile in fastball spin rate). Since he doesn’t make batters miss (fifth percentile chase rate, 9% swinging strike rate) and has a huge issue with walks (4.68 per nine innings), his ugly 5.40 FIP should not come as a surprise.
The cherry on top is that he’s no longer effectively limiting hard contact this season, ranking in the 16th percentile in average exit velocity en route to a 10th percentile xERA/xwOBA. Give me the Over in Game 2.
My best bet: Over 8.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
Athletics vs Giants same-game parlay
Over 8.5 (-115)
Both teams to score 3+ runs (-110)
Patrick Bailey to record 2+ total bases (+130)
The first leg of the SGP will be our best bet as outlined above. I went into the starting pitching details above and forecast runs for both teams.
Weather typically plays a factor at Oracle Park and Wednesday is no exception. The forecast calls for winds of 12.8 mph blowing out to left field throughout the contest.
I touched on some of San Francisco’s lineup above and the fact that they're facing a pitcher with a 6.11 ERA. As for Oakland, the lineup has posted a 93 wRC+ against lefties in July — not world-breaking numbers, but not terrible. Facing a struggling pitcher in Wood, I like the A’s odds of notching at least three runs along with the Giants and I'm adding that prop at -110 odds.
The third and final leg will be Giants catcher Patrick Bailey to notch at least 2+ total bases. The 24-year-old rookie has been a revelation in the Bay this year and mashed lefties, posting a .327 average and .527 slugging percentage. This brings our final SGP odds to +340.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Athletics vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The opening line shows some discrepancy in pricing — the Giants are as low as -230 and as high as -250.
This rivalry has been pretty lopsided in recent memory as San Francisco has won three straight and six of the last seven. The A’s have lost five straight heading into Wednesday’s game.
Some books have opened the total at 8.5 while others are posting a flat 9.
These two teams have been opposites: the A’s have played to the Over, going 52-44 O/U on the year, while the Giants have played to the Under at 43-54 O/U.
San Francisco has not hit lefties well this season, ranking second-worst with an 84 wRC+ and .293 wOBA while posting a girthy 25.2% K-rate. Looking at recent performance, Kapler’s squad has at least cut down on its punchouts, posting a 19.9% K-rate against lefties in July.
This Over is all about the starting pitchers to me. Wood’s offerings have been atrocious, as his 91 Pitching+ ranks third-last among pitchers with at least 45 IP. Harris’ 94 Pitching+ isn’t much better, nor is his 82 Stuff+.
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Trend to know
The A’s are 26-18-5 O/U on the road this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Athletics vs. Giants
Athletics vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-California, NBCS-Bay Area |
Starting pitchers
Hogan Harris (2-4, 6.11 ERA): Harris’ ERA stands out as a lumpy figure, but his underlying 4.37 xERA and 4.43 FIP are both more svelt. The lefty was drafted in the third round of the 2018 draft and impressed throughout the early stages of his Minor League career before slipping up with a 5.76 FIP at Triple-A in 2022 and then a 5.94 FIP at the same level this season before moving up to the Big Leagues.
Alex Wood (4-4, 4.99 ERA): Wood has struggled this season and his last start wasn't any different as he surrendered five earned across four innings against the Nationals. His 5.38 xERA and 5.24 FIP are both the highest numbers of his career in a season in which he’s thrown more than 35 innings. His strikeouts are down (19.5% K-rate), his walks are up to a career-high 11.5% BB-rate, and he’s allowing more hard contact (8% barrel rate this year compared to 5.2% for his career).
