The World Baseball Classic continues with a key Pool B matchup between Korea and Australia at the Tokyo Dome in Japan.
Korea has a chance to be a sleeper contender in this tournament and advance as one of the top teams in a table that also features WBC juggernaut Japan. Korea is a big favorite to win this matchup but they can’t overlook the Aussies, who have been a mainstay in the WBC despite never advancing out of the first round.
So, where is the baseball betting value in this Pool B matchup? Is it with Australia as big dogs, or is there a better way to back Korea? Find out below where I break down the World Baseball Classic odds and bring you my best bet for Australia vs. Korea.
Australia vs Korea odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
| Australia | Korea | |
|---|---|---|
| +425 | Moneyline | -600 |
| +2.5 (+110) | Run line | -2.5 (-140) |
| Over 8.5 (+105) | Total | Under 8.5 (-135) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 8, 2023
Australia vs Korea picks and predictions
Korea is a hefty -600 favorite in this game for a reason. For starters, they are a dark horse contender in this competition at +1,300 while Australia is much more of a long shot at +13,000.
That’s because this Korean team is made up mostly of players from the KBO, a league many followed closely during the peak pandemic year of 2020.
The league is highly competitive, and the baseball is very high quality. I would rank it probably between the Japanese professional league (NPB) and MiLB Triple-A. The KBO is known for a fun style of baseball with some of the best bat flips in the world, but also strong in fundamentals and starting pitching.
Korea hands the ball to Young-Pyo Ko, a 31-year-old right-hander who went 13-8 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP for the KT Wiz last season. Ko is an extreme ground ball specialist and throws a lot of junk. He should have success facing an Australia lineup whose biggest threat is Robbie Glendinning. He hit 19 home runs last year, but it was for the Kansas City Royals’ Double-A affiliate.
Korea’s strategy here is clearly to keep the Australian hitters off balance and feed the ball to their elite middle infielders to vacuum up. MLB infielders Ha-Seong Kim and Tommy Edman will be manning shortstop and second base respectively.
Kim and Edman also provide pop to the Korean lineup but also watch out for outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee. The 24-year-old is the reigning KBO MVP, hitting .349 with 23 dingers and a .996 OPS.
That Korea lineup will be a handful for Australia starter Jack O'Loughlin. The 22-year-old lefty spent four seasons in the Detroit Tigers system and had a solid 3.34 ERA but never made it out of High-A before returning to Australia last season.
O’Loughlin also isn’t a big strikeout guy, averaging just 8.2 punchouts per nine innings in his minor league career. Expect Korea to make a lot of contact and put some balls in play in this one.
I’m taking Korea on the run line at -2.5. Even at the juice of -140, I believe there is still value with them here.
My best bet: Korea -2.5 (-140 at bet365)
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Australia vs Korea moneyline analysis
When a team is a -600 favorite in a baseball game, you generally call that a mismatch. As mentioned, the dynamic duo MLB of Ha-Seong Kim and Tommy Edman creates one of the best middle infields in the tournament. They are also littered with other guys who possess MLB experience, including Byung-Ho Park and Hyun-Soo Kim.
But none are more intriguing than Lee. He is only 24 but has already played six professional seasons in the KBO and has a career .342 batting average and .902 OPS.
Meanwhile, Australia has a roster with little MLB experience. Glendinning could move up the Royals system this year and Aaron Whitefield is a speedy outfielder who had a cup of coffee with the Twins and Angels...but that’s about it.
Australia vs Korea Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total I’ve seen both 8 and 8.5 for this matchup and I would be inclined to lean toward the Under at 8.5.
Australia is a team with several current and former MiLB minor leaguers, and while they may be a solid team when it comes to fundamentals, they likely lack power in this lineup.
If you like the Over, you’ll likely have to bank on Korea doing most of the heavy lifting. Unfortunately, they didn’t put up a ton of runs in their exhibition games and it could take a game or two for the bats to get cracking.
Australia vs Korea game info
| Location: | Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Australia vs Korea starting pitchers
Young-Pyo Ko: Ko is a 31-year-old right-hander who went 13-8 last season in the KBO with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
Jack O'Loughlin: O'Loughlin is a 22-year-old left-hander who was once a part of the Tigers farm system. In four seasons of minor-league ball, he pitched to a 3.34 ERA and struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings. He spent last season pitching for Adelaide in the Australian League.
