One of the most popular MLB betting markets in recent years has been the No Run/Yes Run first inning bets. My MLB picks for today's slate dive into that market as I bet on at least one run being scored in the first inning in tonight's game between the Cleveland Guardians and the underachieving Baltimore Orioles.
I'm also betting on no runs to be scored in the opening frame in a pair of games between the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays, and Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres. Here are my best NRFI and YRFI bets for Tuesday, April 15.
Best NRFI/YRFI bets today
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YRFI (-119 at ProphetX)
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NRFI (-124 at ProphetX)
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NRFI (-116 at ProphetX)
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NRFI/YRFI bets for April 15
Guardians at Orioles: YRFI (-119 at ProphetX)
The Baltimore Orioles score a run in the first inning 53.3% of the time — the highest rate in the majors. The Cleveland Guardians are sixth in the metric with a 40% rate, and with the wind blowing towards the outfield at 18 mph today, we could see plenty of runs.
The Orioles have surprisingly struggled at the dish this year, slugging just .383. Considering they were third in the majors in slugging percentage (.435) last year and have an expected slugging percentage of .449 this season, positive regression is on the horizon.
Meanwhile, negative regression is likely for Cleveland starter Logan Allen, who has a 3.60 ERA through two starts. Allen pitched to a 5.73 ERA across 97 1/3 innings last season and has an expected ERA of 5.41 this year. The 25-year-old tends to struggle early, pitching to a 6.46 ERA with an OBA of .305 in the first inning.
The O's have former All-Star Charlie Morton on the mound, but the 41-year-old has looked like a shell of his former self. Morton has been rocked in all three of his starts this season, posting an ERA of 8.74, and opponents have slashed .273/.467/.546 against him in the opening frame.
Braves at Blue Jays: NRFI (-124 at ProphetX)
The Atlanta Braves have been surprisingly poor at the dish this season, ranking 19th in OPS (.679) and 24th in runs per game (3.56). With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna sidelined by injuries, they'll have a tough time scoring today against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto has three-time All-Star Kevin Gausman on the hill. The veteran has a 2.33 ERA with a 0.62 WHIP through three starts this season.
Meanwhile, the Jays are 19th in the majors in runs per game (3.94) and have scored a run in the first inning just 29.4% of the time. They'll struggle to score against Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach.
Schwellenbach had an impressive rookie season last year, pitching to a 3.35 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP across 123 2/3 innings. He's been even better this year, posting a 0.45 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP through 20 innings. The righty has a sizzling 1.12 ERA with an OBA of .113 in first innings for his career.
Cubs at Padres: NRFI (-116 at ProphetX)
Chicago Cubs sophomore Shota Imanaga might not have the frame to maintain his velocity deep into games, but he's brilliant in the early going. In his career, Imanaga has pitched to a 2.45 ERA with an opponent batting average of .125 in the first inning.
Today, he faces the San Diego Padres, who are second in the majors in first-inning runs per game (1.06). However, that number ticks down to 0.82 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and they hit significantly worse against southpaws like Imanaga.
Last year, they led the majors in batting average against right-handed pitchers but were just 19th in BA against lefties (.239). This season, they have an MLB-best .298 batting average against righties but have hit .256 versus southpaws.
The Cubs lead the majors with 6.32 runs per game but plate a run in the opening inning just 21% of the time — the seventh-lowest number. With Seiya Suzuki currently sidelined by a wrist injury, the top of Chicago's lineup has holes. Ian Happ (slashing .210/.309/.284) bats leadoff with Justin Turner (slugging .172) in the 3-hole and Dansby Swanson (.176 BA) batting fifth.
They won't have an easy time scoring against Padres starter Randy Vasquez today. The 26-year-old has a 1.72 ERA with an OBA of .143 in three starts this season and had a 3.24 ERA at home last year. He has struggled with his control this season, and if he can clear up those issues, he'll be a menace.
❓What are NRFI and YRFI bets❓
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.
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