Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want, if you're betting pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Friday, August 16.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: August 16
Martinez u17.5 outs (-110)
Pepiot u17.5 outs (+118)
Crochet u6.5 strikeouts (-145)
Waldron u17.5 outs (-132)
Skenes u8.5 strikeouts (-132)
Today’s best SP angles
Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds
The angle: Former reliever, Nick Martinez, is coming off a season-high in pitches.
Nick Martinez threw 94 pitches in his last start, which was 24 more than his previous outing. That's a massive jump for a guy who was in the bullpen just three appearances ago. He has allowed just one ER over his last 24+ innings, but he has a tough matchup with the Royals in a hitter's ballpark.
THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches, 4.07 punchouts, and 15.7 outs recorded. BetRivers is still hanging a 17.5 total, which is worth a play on the Under but even if it does move, the 16.5 at even money is good too.
The move: Nick Martinez Under 17.5 outs (-110 at BetRivers)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays
The angle: Ryan Pepiot is returning from a month-long absence.
The Tampa Bay starter missed a month with an infection in his knee after, of all things, a bug bite. Hold your loved ones close tonight.
BetRivers is the only book with enough courage to hang an outs market on the starter... but at 17.5 and plus money to the Under, they've set the line wrong.
He threw 69 pitches in his Double-A rehab start (his only rehab start), so getting anywhere near 90 pitches could be a stretch today. He projects for 15.3 outs per THE BAT and this market should go OTB early today or just fall to 15.5. The matchup is also daunting as Arizona has been one of the better offenses over the last 30 days.
Tampa is 6.5 games back of the Wild Card and has no reason to push one of their best starters.
The move: Ryan Pepiot Under 17.5 outs (+118 at BetRivers)
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros
The angle: Garrett Crochet is slowing down and getting scaled back.
FanDuel didn't get the memo that the Chicago starter is not going deep anymore. This is the only place offering a strikeout total and despite the Under 6.5 at -145, it still shows a ton of value with THE BAT projecting just 5.14 Ks on 73 pitches.
It's book-specific, but it's another error — and illustrates how betting early can help you find some scams. This will be likely gone by noon.
The move: Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 strikeouts (-145 at FanDuel)
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies
The angle: Matt Waldron's leash is getting shorter and he is opening a series at Coors.
Matt Waldron has thrown 83, 80, and 81 pitches in his last three starts and has already exceeded his career high in innings pitched. With San Diego making a push for the playoffs, management could be holding him back so he is available in the postseason.
He'll open a series at Coors Field today and has an out total of 17.5 at BetRivers, which he has failed to top in three straight starts. Ever since he threw 106 pitches on July 6, his leash has been short, and expect more of that today.
My favorite day to fade pitchers at Coors is the series opener, as there is less time to adapt to the altitude. THE BAT is projecting Under 15 outs today so even the 16.5s are in play. The Padres' bullpen is also rested after a day off yesterday.
The move: Matt Waldron Under 17.5 outs (-132 at BetRivers)
Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The angle: There is a good chance of a delay with the rain projections
Rain is tough to predict... but when it's with a Paul Skenes start, the Unders are popping a little more. Skenes is falling hard in the NL ROTY race and his max velocity in the first inning has been dropping almost week-on-week.
It's an Over strikeout market that is inflated by the public, plus the Mariners (and their heavy K%) are also pumping up this strikeout total. FanDuel has his Under 8.5 punchouts at -132, which is a solid +EV play with a 7.2 projection. However, add in the rain and the Pirates' season wrapped up, there is no reason to push the hottest name in the league.
He is the team's money maker, they will not hurt the Golden Goose.
The move: Paul Skenes Under 8.5 strikeouts (-132 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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