With MLB kicking things off Tuesday morning in Tokyo, it's time to get short and sweet with betting pitcher markets again this year.
Matchups are almost always priced and betting on or against pitchers usually comes down to one thing: leash and pitch count. The first game of the year in Japan is a tough game to dissect, so let's play it a little more cautiously this week in terms of risk. I'm also adding a hitting prop on the one-game slate that is very much tied to the Chicago Cubs' pitching blueprint.
These are my favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Tuesday, March 18.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: March 18
Yamamoto Over 14.5 outs recorded (+110 at bet365)- Pages Under 0.5 hits (+120 at DraftKings)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Yoshinobu Yamamoto might have a longer leash than expected and he'll certainly want to rebound after last year's disaster in South Korea
The move: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 14.5 outs recorded (+110 at bet365)
The books are always in a tough spot for pitcher outs early in the season. Leashes are short and the series in Japan adds another wrinkle. Yoshinobu Yamamoto might not see the sixth inning but I like him to be efficient and get his 15 outs for +110 with a buy point of even money.
I'm seeing this as more of a coin flip. The second-year SP just went 15 outs in his last Spring start on 75 pitches. Los Angeles Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts might have a longer leash with the right-hander than last season and it's not crazy to project 80-85 pitches for Yamamoto on Tuesday morning, giving him around 17 pitches per frame to work with to get those 15 outs.
There is also a motivating factor for Yamamoto as he threw 47 pitches in South Korea last year in Game No. 2 and lasted just one inning in what was his worst start of the season. Now he is the Opening-Day starter for a team that has a win total of 104.5.
Tyler Glasnow went 15 outs in the season opener in South Korea last season for the Dodgers and threw 77 pitches after throwing 70 in his previous Spring start.
With a pitch count I'm projecting at 75-85 pitches, there are just as many outs for the Over than the Under.
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: The Cubs will start a short-leashed lefty and the Dodgers might be running a platoon in center field
The move: Andy Pages Under 0.5 hits (+120 at DraftKings)
The lineup is not set, but the Dodgers will likely start Andy Pages in center field as the right-handed hitter will face Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga.
The Cubs starter is not expected to go more than five innings, so there will be a lot of right-handed pitching coming out of the Chicago bullpen, which could push Pages to the bench for a pinch hitter as James Outman is also in play for the CF spot and hits from the left side. The Cubs have just one lefty in the current bullpen.
Pages is hitting .214 in the spring and projects to be a .237 hitter this year from THE BAT. If he can get just three plate appearances and hand things off to a lefty hitter in a lineup that projects for fewer at-bats in total because Mookie Betts is sitting, that would be a big win for this Under hit prop at plus money.
The Cubs bullpen is ready to roll and the Dodgers will be seeing the A relievers regardless of the score. The Under has also been steamed from 8.5 to 7.5 so projected runs should be lowered.
If Pages doesn't draw the start, this bet be voided.
Not intended for use in MA.
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