Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, September 12.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 12
Skubal u4.5 hits allowed (+110)
Parker u2.5 earned runs (-125)
Williams u6.5 strikeouts (-125)
Today’s best SP angles
Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers
The angle: Tarik Skubal has a cupcake matchup and doesn't have to throw 100 pitches.
Tarik Skubal is paying plus money for his Under 4.5 hits allowed vs. a Bottom-3 offense in the Colorado Rockies. It's an afternoon game, so there will likely be worse bats in the visiting lineup and the getaway angle with the Rockies going home following the game also hurts their cause.
The Detroit Tigers ace is still the AL Cy Young betting favorite at -5,000. It's his for the taking and he doesn't have to get that deep. He's gone more than 18 outs just once over his last five starts and has not thrown more than 100 pitches in any of those games. The lefty should cruise today, go six frames, and shorten those Cy Young odds further. This is about as easy a spot as a starter can get and it is the best pitcher in baseball.
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals
The angle: Mitchell Parker faces a weak opponent and should have a short leash.
Washington Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker threw 123 innings last year and is up to 136 innings this season with a couple of starts left. He will not get deep tonight and will throw around 80-85 pitches, which is slightly above his last-10 average. He faces one of the worst offenses in baseball as the Miami Marlins rank 29th in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching.
Parker is going five or six frames at most and allowing three or more earned runs is highly unlikely, especially at home, where the lefty has a 3.04 ERA and has gone Under this number in nine of 13 home starts. That includes a six-inning one-run performance vs. the Marlins back in mid-June.
I'd play his Under 2.5 earned runs down to -145. He projects for 2.2 earned runs today.
The move: Mitchell Parker Under 2.5 earned runs (-125 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians
The angle: Gavin Williams is coming off a 2-out performance and is 10-3 to the Under on today's K total.
Gavin Williams recorded only two outs in his previous outing vs. the Dodgers and has not hit seven punchouts in six straight starts. He has hit the 18-out mark just twice in that stretch and is losing command with 13 walks across those 27 innings.
The Tampa Bay Rays are a heavy strikeout team at 35% over the last 30 days, but Williams is struggling to find the zone and is coming off his worst start of the season by a mile. He is roughly a K/inning guy but with his inconsistencies and the Cleveland Guardians in the thick of the playoff race, his leash could be short if he gets into trouble again. There are more paths for this Under 6.5 Ks at -125 than the Over, which he has hit in just three of 13 starts.
He projects for 5.61 Ks and I'd buy this all the way to 5.5 at plus money but would wait for a flip at u6.5 -140 or shorter.
The move: Gavin Williams Under 6.5 strikeouts (-125 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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