Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful once you dig into the matchups.
I highlight and inspect the best pitcher angles for today's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scan some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, September 17.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 17
Williamson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
McCaughan Under 14.5 outs (+125) + Under 1.5 walks allowed (+155)
Baz Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110)
Montas Under 17.5 outs (+125)
Martin Under 1.5 walks allowed (+145)
King Under 17.5 outs (+130)
Today’s best SP angles
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds
The angle: Brandon Williamson is still on a tight leash after missing five months.
The Cincinnati Reds lefty has made just three starts since a five-month layoff. He's pitched well but has thrown 66, 60, and 82 pitches in those games. Bettors should not expect that pitch count to climb much higher, capping Brandon Williamson's inning length and likely capping it at five frames.
He's topped his 4.5 K total in two of those starts, but he's a 7.54 K/9 over his 130 innings in the majors, and getting five strikeouts in five innings is a tough task for the starter today. It's a tough pitcher setting at Great American Ball Park while the Braves have actually improved their K% numbers over the last month, ranking 20th in it after being one of the worst strikeout teams earlier in the summer.
He projects for 4.2 and I'd bet this to -110.
The move: Brandon Williamson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins
The angle: Miami's Darren McCaughan is a 7.00-ERA pitcher with an 80-pitch leash.
Darren McCaughan has made three starts and five appearances since being traded from the Guardians. Batters are hitting over .300 vs. him and the flyball pitcher has not missed many bats, compiling just 12 swings and misses over his 229 pitches in three starts. He's not getting deep today vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Miami Marlins bullpen is fresh thanks to a day off yesterday.
There are a couple of ways to play the likely abbreviated outing which include his Under 14.5 outs at +125 and his Under 1.5 walks allowed at +155. Both project very well with Covers' projections expecting 13.8 outs and THE BAT projecting 1.59 walks allowed over 80 pitches. I'm double dipping here and taking both. There are a lot of paths to a terrible and short outing.
Betting Under 14.5 outs is always sweaty but it's hard to recover from even one 20-pitch inning. This is still a near-5.00 ERA pitcher across 494 Triple-A innings spanning three seasons. It could be an ugly Tuesday for McCaughan.
The move: Darren McCaughan Under 14.5 outs recorded (+125 at DraftKings) + Under 1.5 walks allowed (+155 at bet365)
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
The angle: Shane Baz's workload is on the decline and his Unders look good based on volume.
Shane Baz has thrown 78 pitches in two of his last three starts and the Tampa Bay Rays might be monitoring his workload with just a couple of starts remaining. He's at 99 innings on the season, which is a career high. The thing about Baz is that he's been almost unhittable of late which is great for his Under 4.5 hits allowed at plus-money odds.
Over his last four starts, he's allowed just 10 hits across 24 innings. He's gone Under this number in each one and that includes a game with 92 pitches and 103 pitches.
The Boston Red Sox offense has fallen off a cliff over the last 30 days, ranking 25th in average and fourth in K% at 27%. It's a great matchup with maybe a shorter leash that isn't being priced in.
The move: Shane Baz Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: Frankie Montas is being priced over a recent cluster of starts.
Frankie Montas has gone Over 17.5 outs in five straight starts but he's anything but an efficient pitcher. He has 18 walks over 40 innings since August 1 and also uses a lot of pitches with his 10.1 K/9 over that stretch.
Before the five-game run, the right-hander had gone Under this number in four of five. He's been known to have awful innings that push his pitch count up and there's no need to push the starter with the No. 3 seed all but locked up.
There's a chance Milwaukee can seed higher, but that pressure could force a move to the bullpen if Montas struggles to find the zone again. Milwaukee sits three games back of the No. 1 seed owned by the Phillies. He projects for 16.3 outs and I'd play this to +105.
The move: Frankie Montas Under 17.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
The angle: Davis Martin has the walks under control but is paying big bucks for his Under 1.5.
Davis Martin is paying +145 to record one or fewer walks today vs. the Halos who are an average BB% team. The Chicago White Sox starter has hit this Under in four straight starts so I'm confused by the pricing. This is a soft market that does take time to adjust, but this could very well close at +110.
His leash is getting shorter which only helps as Martin has thrown 76, 86, and 90 pitches over his last three starts. He's also coming off a rough start where he gave up five runs over nine outs. This can cash in a variety of ways and is a buy for me to +120. This is mispriced.
The move: Davis Martin Under 1.5 walks allowed (+145 at bet365)
Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres
The angle: Michael King is still priced too high in his outs market and his pitch count might be shrinking.
This is a bet I make every five or six days when Michael King starts because his Under 17.5 outs is always available at good plus money. He's 4-3 to the Under since August 1 and is coming off a 90-pitch outing where he went 15 outs which is hopefully where the San Diego Padres want him.
He uses a ton of pitches thanks to his high K% but also gives up a hit per inning. He has also been known to have bad control games which gives him a ton of outs for the Under.
It's a tough matchup vs. the Astros and the Padres haven't used their middle relievers in days. San Diego is also 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West so King can't falter. I'd play this to +105.
The move: Michael King Under 17.5 outs (+130 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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