Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, September 10.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 10
Bradley u17.5 outs recorded (-120)
Cannon u17.5 outs recorded (-123)
Pallante u17.5 outs recorded (+125)
Imanaga u17.5 outs recorded (+145)
Gallen o5.5 strikeouts (+130)
Today’s best SP angles
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies
The angle: Taj Bradley is coming off a 13-game in pitches, has a tough matchup, and is pushing his career-high in innings pitched.
Tampa Bay Rays righty Taj Bradley is coming off a 10-K game vs. the Twins but he also had to throw 100 pitches for the first time since June 19. He hasn't been very sharp over his last seven starts either (8.92 ERA). He has a tough task taking down the Philadelphia Phillies today and there is a good chance he doesn't get 18 outs.
He could be scaled back or he could just hit around. His high-strikeout ways elevate his pitch count but he has also allowed 47 hits over his last 35 innings, so he deals with a lot of stressful pitches. This u17.5 has been profitable over that seven-game stretch and he projects for just 15.8 outs. This could moved to 16.5.
I'd buy the u17.5 to -125 but would then rather the u16.5 at even money if it dropped to -130.
The move: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 outs recorded (-120 at bet365)
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox
The angle: Jonathan Cannon is setting new highs in innings pitched and starting to fade down the stretch.
Jonathan Cannon threw 118 innings last year and enters tonight at 137, including 101+ frames with the Chicago White Sox. He has gone Under 18 outs in three straight starts and faces a Cleveland Guardians team that takes a lot of pitches per plate appearance and doesn't strike out much.
He should still get his 90-95 pitches but likely won't see more than that. His 4.4 BB/9 rate has been driving up the pitch count of late and his outs total should fall to 16.5 by the end of the day.
With his control issues and struggles with striking batters out, he has to be wildly efficient to get 18 outs and the matchup and workload are working against him. I'd play this exactly like the Bradley under.
The move: Jonathan Cannon Under 17.5 outs recorded (-123 at Caesars)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The angle: Andre Pallante is paying too much to go Under 17.5 outs.
St. Louis Cardinals starter Andre Pallante is 5-2 to the Under 18.5 outs across his last seven starts and that is with 90+ pitches in each of those outings. He only threw 77 innings in 2023 and is currently at 114 this season. The Cards are still happy to roll him out for 95 pitches, but he is nothing more than an average starter at best and his 4.1 BB/9 since the All-Star break is driving that pitch count up.
This is very similar to Cannon's handicap but Pallante is paying +125 for his u17.5 outs, which is a giant number and more on the level of Top-30 pitchers in baseball. The Cincinnati Reds are being priced as the Marlins here in terms of the matchup. This is a buy-to-even money. He projects for 17.1 outs, which I think is a little high. The Cards' bullpen is also fresh after a day off yesterday.
The move: Andre Pallante Under 17.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Shota Imanaga projects for 15.8 outs and is paying +145 for the Under.
Sometimes books struggle to price props vs. elite offenses. You're never going to get a break on a Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline, but the opposition outs total is always a good place to look for value.
Shota Imanaga has thrown 303 pitches over his last three starts, which is the highest three-game stretch of his MLB career. He was averaging 89 pitches in his 10 games before those three games and the Chicago Cubs could be pushing him down the stretch with a playoff race in mind. The three-pack of opponents also consisted of the Pirates, Nationals, and Marlins. The Dodgers are a different breed and I'd bet any pitcher vs. them u17.5 outs at +120 or better.
Despite Kyle Hendricks starting last night, the Chicago bullpen is still in good shape after a quiet weekend of activity. Shota is an elite pitcher and is coming off seven innings of no-hit ball, but +145 is always a buy vs. the Dodgers.
The move: Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 outs recorded (+145 at DraftKings)
Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The angle: Zac Gallen can get a K/inning tonight vs. Texas and is paying plus money to do so.
Zac Gallen has found his strikeout stuff of late whiffing 24 batters over his last 17 frames (three starts) That also came against the Giants, Dodgers, and Red Sox, so it was earned. Arizona is in a dogfight for the playoffs and Gallen should see 100 pitches which he has done in back-to-back starts.
Texas is an average team in terms of K% but Gallen just needs to be average too and go six frames to get six punchouts which is paying a whopping +130. He projects for 5.7 tonight so this is a little better than a coin flip at solid odds. Over his last three seasons, Gallen has 528 Ks over 521 innings of work. A K/inning is all I'm asking in a home start where the team needs him to go deep.
Remember, always check the difference in odds between the O/U market and the Alt market. This is +125 at DraftKings for the 6+ but +130 for Over 5.5 Ks.
The move: Zac Gallen Over 5.5 strikeouts (+130 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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