It was a weird series in Seattle for the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto needed a win on Sunday to salvage the series but probably came away feeling it should have won all three... with the first two losses coming late in the respective games.
But it’ll need to refocus quickly as its West Coast swing takes the team to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers that has returned to their familiar spot on top of the National League West standings.
The Dodgers are so hot they are about -125 home favorites despite the fact an inconsistent Michael Grove will be taking the ball for them tonight. Does that mean there is value in Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays as underdogs?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers on July 24.
Blue Jays vs Dodgers odds
Blue Jays vs Dodgers predictions
The short answer to my above question is yes. I believe there is value on Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays tonight.
Now, backing Berrios can certainly be a test of one’s nerves, and while he isn’t an elite pitcher, his stuff has been pretty good in 2023. He’s also miles better than whoever that was pitching in a Berrios jersey for the Jays in 2022.
The Blue Jays right-hander has basically been really good since his third start of the season. Over his last 18 outings, Berrios is pitching to a 2.71 ERA, and limiting opponents to a .224 batting average in those games. And his 3.88 FIP over that stretch shows he’s been solid.
Berrios uses his slurve and sinker to create soft contact, ranking in the 73rd percentile or better in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. His strikeout rate has also bumped back up after not being able to punch out any batters in 2022. And he’ll need all of that working to shut down a potent Dodgers lineup.
But he’s in a much better position to do that than his opponent, Michael Grove. The 26-year-old right-hander made the Dodgers out of Spring Training but things didn’t start smoothly, as he pitched to a 8.44 ERA in his first four starts before an ankle injury kept him out until June.
Since then, he has bounced back and forth between the Dodgers rotation and the long relief man role with inconsistent results. Overall, he is pitching to a 5.17 expected ERA and ranks in the 13th percentile in both expected batting average and expected slugging percentage.
And even though the Blue Jays sometimes struggle with coming up with that clutch hit, overall their numbers are solid. Toronto ranks fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Now, the Dodgers' lineup is better than Toronto’s at this point, but the Blue Jays’ edge in starting pitching looks like a big one. I think it gives them the advantage, at least through the first half of the game. So, I’ll be looking at Toronto on the five-inning moneyline.
My best bet: Blue Jays five-inning moneyline (-108 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Blue Jays F5 moneyline
Berrios Over 5.5 K
Freeman Over 1.5 TB
As always, let’s start this same-game parlay with our best bet, which is of course the Blue Jays on the five-inning moneyline, which is basically a vote of confidence in Jose Berrios. So, let’s keep that going in leg No. 2 by adding Berrios to go Over 5.5 strikeouts.
Berrios is slightly above average when it comes to strikeout rate this season, but the reason to like the Over is his ability to pitch deep into ball games. The right-hander is averaging 24.9 batters faced, and 94.1 pitches per start over his last 17 starts and has completed at least six innings 13 times over that stretch. While the Dodgers are a middle-of-the-road strikeout team with the 17th-highest K-rate vs. right-handed pitchers.
But that doesn't mean it's going to be all sunshine and roses for Berrios. The Dodgers lineup is no joke. And there aren’t many hitters in baseball hotter than Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers first baseman is hitting .382 with a 1.185 OPS since June 25, which includes him going 14-for-24 (.583) with seven extra-base hits over his last six games. Lefties have given Berrios the most problems, and Freeman is hitting .337 vs. right-handed pitching. Add the Over 1.5 total bases for Freeman and a +900 payday.
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Blue Jays vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this interleague showdown as roughly +105 road underdogs but they have seen the early action moving to the +100 range, with the Dodgers sitting at about -120 as of Monday afternoon.
As noted, the Dodgers have a slight edge when it comes to the lineups but are at a disadvantage when it comes to the starting pitching. Another reason I prefer the Jays on the five inning moneyline as opposed to the full-game is that while both teams have solid bullpens, we have seen the Toronto relievers struggle in their most recent series against the Mariners. And the longer the game goes, the better chance the Dodgers and that great lineup have.
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 9 and some 9.5s have popped up. At 9, I would have a slight lean toward the Over.
As I said, I like Toronto’s chances to get off to a good start against Grove. They are hitting .257 and are scoring 4.65 runs per game since the start of July.
The Dodgers meanwhile, are tearing the cover off the ball. They are plating a crazy 6.65 runs per game since the start of July and rank second in OPS and third in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the first five innings moneyline in six of their last nine games for +3.85 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
Blue Jays vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, July 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, SNLA |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (8-7, 3.39 ERA): Berrios has bounced back from a little pre-All Star break lull. He's allowed three earned runs over three starts in July and has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 18 starts.
Michael Grove (2-2, 6.40 ERA): Grove is arguably coming off his best start of the year, limiting the Orioles to one run on five hits over five innings last time out. But he'll need to be more consistent if we wants to keep making starts for the Dodgers down the stretch.
