Stop the presses! The Toronto Blue Jays actually beat the Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays outlasted the Orioles on Tuesday, winning 6-3 in 10 innings in last night’s series opener.
Tonight, Toronto will try to make it two in a row against the O’s and they’ll put their best foot forward as they hand the ball to ace Kevin Gausman, while Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer.
Will Gausman put on another strong performance as a favorite and help Toronto win its first series of the season against the first-place O’s? Or will Baltimore do what it’s done all season and clip the Jays' wings?
I break down the MLB odds and give you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on August 23.
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions
Kevin Gausman has hit a bit of a rough patch in the month of August. The Blue Jays’ ace has pitched to a 4.32 ERA and has just 16 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings over his last three starts.
However, Gausman has proven time and again that he is capable of pulling himself out of these mini-slumps. And not only do I think he can do that tonight, even against a very good Orioles lineup, but those struggles could also be giving us some value with one of Gausman’s props.
Overall, the right-hander has been one of the best starters in the American League all season long, which is why he has the third-best odds to win the AL Cy Young Award this season. Gausman is pitching to a solid 3.81 expected ERA, is limiting opponents to a .237 expected batting average, and his strikeout rate of 31.7% ranks in the 94th percentile among MLB pitchers.
While I noted those strikeouts have been down a bit in August, it’s presenting us with an opportunity. Oddsmakers at Sports Interaction have set Gausman’s strikeouts at a low 5.5. It hasn’t been that low all season.
Gausman averages 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and just over a tick over six innings per start. Meaning going Over a number like 5.5 shouldn’t be a problem against a team like Baltimore, which ranks 18th in K-rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Gausman has also had one good and one OK start against the Orioles this season. Back on May 21, he held them to two runs on six hits while striking out four over eight innings. On Aug. 3, he allowed three runs on eight hits but struck out six in 4 1/3 innings.
Blue Jays manager John Schneider is likely hoping for one of those patented long outings from Gausman tonight. Because despite getting the win last night, starter Yusei Kikuchi was only able to go 4 2/3 innings. And with the game going to extras, the Jays used basically every single one of their high-leverage relievers.
Even at juice like this, the Over 5.5 on Gausman’s strikeouts is showing value. I would even like the Over 6.5 strikeouts if you can get it at plus money. But for our purposes here, 5.5 is great, and it’s a number Gausman has eclipsed in 18 of his 24 starts this season.
My best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-160 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay
Gausman 6+ strikeouts
Under 8.5
Austin Hays Under 0.5 hits
As always, our same-game parlay starts off with our best bet which tonight, is Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts. Pitching will be the theme in this SGP.
Let’s continue by adding the Under for the full-game total. That is currently on the board at 8, but let’s give ourselves a little more breathing room and bump it up to 8.5 for our purposes here.
The Jays have been an Under machine lately. The Blue Jays are 17-7 to the Under in their last 24 games. And yesterday’s game was tied at three before heading to extra innings. That’s due to some excellent pitching and their struggles to hit with runners in scoring position, and those things have a good chance to ring true once again tonight.
Let’s close it out with someone who has a lot of trouble with Gausman’s stuff in Orioles outfielder Austin Hays. Hays is hitting a ho-hum .250 over his last 10 games, and while he is 4-for-9 in his career vs. Gausman, those hits have come on very soft contact. Hays owns an expected batting average of .110 and an expected slugging percentage of .121 in those nine ABs, which include three strikeouts.
Add Hays to go hitless tonight, and if all three of these connect, we are walking away with a nice +525 payout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays and Orioles opened this American League East matchup at -110 each way with Kevin Gausman facing off against Jack Flaherty. But Flaherty was scratched with an unidentified ailment, and Dean Kremer makes the start instead.
The line then unsurprisingly moved in Toronto’s favor, with the Blue Jays now sitting around -135 road chalk for Game 2 of this series. The move makes sense considering Kremer’s numbers. The right-hander has an almost inexplicable 11 wins considering he is pitching to a 5.33 xERA while ranking in the Bottom 11% of the league in both xBA and xSLG.
But despite this, the Jays haven’t been able to take advantage of this matchup. Kremer has thrown 11 innings over two starts against the Jays this season and has allowed just one run on four hits.
So, that’s one of the reasons I would turn my attention to the Under. Once the market reopened after Kremer was named the starter, it hit the board at 8.5, but it appears the number is shifting down to 8. There are still some 8.5s out there, and I would lean toward the Under at that number if you can still get it.
Gausman has a chance to be effective tonight, and if the Jays’ struggles to cash in runners pops up again (they rank 28th in OPS with RISP), this could be another intense, low-scoring matchup between these AL East rivals.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the first five inning (F5) moneyline in nine of their last 17 road games for +7.00 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN2 |
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (9-7, 3.24 ERA): Gausman has been one of the best starters in the American League all season long. The right-hander leads the AL in strikeouts, is second in FIP, and is the third favorite in the AL Cy Young odds at +380.
Dean Kremer (11-5, 4.50 ERA): Kremer has been one of those Orioles starters who has just been good enough. He pitches good, not great, and hands the ball off to the elite Orioles bullpen. The right-hander has pitched into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts.
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