It’s a getaway day for both the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon, who wrap up a three-game set at Camden Yards. Tyler Wells and the home side sit as slight -130 favorites vs. Yusei Kikuchi and the visitors, with a total sitting at 9 and teetering to the Under.
With Kikuchi likely not seeing the sixth inning and right-hand hitting James McCann a solid pinch-hit risk, should bettors be looking to fade the Baltimore backstop in a game that doesn’t project to have many knocks?
Find out where my best bets lie in my MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on June 15.
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions
Baltimore’s James McCann sees most of his at-bats vs. left-handed pitching, but he also slashes .161/.171/.321 against southpaws — he isn’t loads better vs. righties at .226/.306./.387, either.
Facing a lefty in Yusei Kikuchi who doesn’t pitch deep into games and doesn’t even have a total outs market, the non-fleet-footed catcher is a 31% pinch-hit risk (per THE BAT) and is projected for just 3.50 plate appearances this afternoon. He is also paying very good plus money to go 0-fer today.
He’s gone hitless in 11 of his last 19 games since the beginning of May, and was subbed out in seven of those matches. McCann owns an 18:3 K/BB ratio this season and also ranks in the Bottom 100 in sprint speed, so his legging out infield singles today is likely out of the question.
The No. 6 hitter has yet to see Kikuchi, who averages around a hit per inning and can have command issues from time to time, which also favors the Under 0.5 hits.
Jose Berrios took a no-hitter into the seventh inning yesterday vs. this Baltimore lineup, and with the Orioles heading out of town following today, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a quick, low-scoring game in the afternoon sun of the getaway game.
My best bet: McCann Under 0.5 hits (+140 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay
McCann Under 0.5 hits
Wells Under 5.5 hits allowed
Kikuchi Over 1.5 walks
McCann is a solid pinch-hit risk (31%) and is batting .161 vs. lefties. He is projected for 3.5 plate appearances, but even if he gets four trips to the dish, he is still close to a coinflip to go hitless.
Tyler Wells allows just 5.9 hits per nine innings this season, which is the second-best rate in baseball behind only Shohei Ohtani. The Blue Jays will likely go with a weaker lineup thanks to the afternoon start, and Camden Yards is not a good home run park. He's allowed six or more hits just once over his last 11 starts.
Kikuchi figured out his walk issues early in the season, but the command issues are starting to emerge again. He's giving up lots of home runs and is trying to stay away from the middle of the plate, which is leading to more walks. He has 13 walks over his last 24 2/3 innings, and Baltimore drew a season-high four walks vs. the lefty in a May matchup.
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Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Toronto lost in the opener as a -125 road favorite (Chris Bassitt vs. Dean Kremer), and took the win last night as a pick ‘em (Jose Berrios vs. Kyle Bradish). Today’s MLB odds opened Baltimore at -125 on the moneyline but Wells and the home side have taken some money, moving the line to -135 as of this morning.
The move could easily be attributed to the consistency of Wells, who is starting to get the trust of bettors. He rolls into this afternoon’s matchup with a 0.84 WHIP, is striking out a batter per inning, and the reliever-turned-starter has allowed more than three earned runs just twice over his last 11 starts. His 5.9 H/9 is the second-best mark in baseball behind only Shohei Ohtani.
Today’s game could see very few hits, as Kikuchi is also a sub-hit-per-inning pitcher, and the backdrop of an afternoon getaway game favors the Under that opened at 9 and has hit 8.5 in some spots.
If both teams run out weaker lineups, this total should hit 8.5 across the board. As of now, bettors who want the Under can still get the 9 if they shop around.
Both starters have struggled with the long ball this season, but Camden Yards is a bottom-tier park for home runs and could aid both pitchers. Each club also has all bullpen arms available for today.
THE BAT is projecting 5.7 combined earned runs from Kikuchi and Wells, and with the Orioles having one of the best bullpens in baseball, Baltimore might not need that last at-bat.
I’m playing this Under 9 at -120 or better, and just need to avoid those multi-run dingers for an afternoon winner.
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Trend to know
The Under is 8-0 in the Orioles’ last eight games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (6-2, 4.34 ERA): Kikuchi doesn’t get deep into games thanks to elevated pitch counts, and has been pitching to a 5.65 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over his last six starts. He’s still striking out more than a batter per inning, but has been plagued by home runs and leads the league with 18 taters allowed. Camden Yards might help the lefty, but 15 outs are likely his limit. THE BAT projects 88 pitches, 14.7 outs, 5.05 strikeouts, and 2.80 earned runs.
Tyler Wells (5-2, 3.24 ERA): Wells has been stellar for the Orioles this season after transitioning to a starter in 2022. Only Shohei Ohtani allows fewer hits/9 than the right-hander whose biggest knock is the longball, as he has given up 14 over 70-plus innings. THE BAT is projecting 87 pitches, 16 outs, 4.24 strikeouts, and 2.93 earned runs.
