The Blue Jays will travel to Pittsburgh on a five-game losing streak attempting to get right against a Pirates team which has dropped four straight games in its own right. In a matchup between two pitchers who have really struggled, where is the edge here?
Let’s break down Blue Jays vs. Pirates in our MLB picks and predictions for May 5.
Blue Jays vs Pirates odds
Blue Jays vs Pirates predictions
The Blue Jays enter this one 9-11 on the road, while the Pirates enter 9-4 at home and 20-12 overall. This isn’t a very spicy pitching matchup for Toronto, either.
They’re sending Chris Bassitt back to the hill, who is quickly putting together a season which would lead many to think he’s contemplating retirement. After a 3.42 ERA with the Mets last year, the 34-year-old owns a 5.18 ERA through six starts with an even-worse 5.53 xERA. He’s never struck many people out, but his 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest he’s seen since 2016. On top of that, he’s never walked as many as 11.3% of the batters he’s faced.
There’s really nothing you can look to here as reason to be optimistic about Bassitt other than his low 33.7% hard-hit rate, and even that’s pretty much cancelled out by an uncharacteristic 9.5% barrel rate. He may not be giving up a lot of well-hit balls, but he’s still surrendered six home runs.
The Pirates are just 16th in ground ball rate over the last two weeks and 15th in wRC+ during the same time. They should have no issues against Bassitt, and on the flip side, the Blue Jays are just 15th in wRC+ vs lefties.
I think the move here is taking the home underdogs with southpaw Rich Hill on the mound.
My best bet: Pirates moneyline (+124 at SIA)
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Blue Jays vs Pirates moneyline analysis
I will talk about Hill in a second — and he’s someone I do not like coming into this matchup, either — but I do think the Pirates are the right side here.
The Blue Jays own just a .727 OPS on the road, and have not made good contact against southpaws. In that split, they have struck out just 16.9% of the time but have turned around and put up a very meek .118 ISO, which is why their wRC+ sits at just 104 against lefties.
Hill has not been very good at getting outs via contact, but this matchup should actually do him some favors with a Toronto team that has refused to hit for power against lefties and away from home.
Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under analysis
To expand a bit on the other pitcher, Hill has been pretty terrible in his own right. He’s sporting a 6.83 xERA through 32 1/3 innings, a campaign which comes on the heels of a tough one in 2022. On top of that, his expected ERA has now been 4.45 or higher in three of the last four seasons as he starts to really trend downward following his career renaissance.
Hill’s always been great at limiting the catastrophic contact, but his 10.1 barrels per plate appearance this year and 13.7% barrel rate in general are bad marks. When the ball’s come back in play there’s been a high likelihood of a hit, which is not what you want to see if you’re a guy with a strikeout rate below the league average.
The Pirates are quietly fourth in hard-hit balls per swing and eighth in barrel rate, which gives me a lot of confidence in them here. I also think the Blue Jays should be able to score some runs here, so I’d definitely lean towards the Over.
Blue Jays vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Friday, May 5, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet 1, ATTP |
Blue Jays vs Pirates betting preview
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.18 ERA): Since coming over from the Mets, Bassitt has been a respectable 3-2 in his six starts for the Blue Jays. It seemed he settled back down after giving up nine earned runs on four homers against the Cardinals in his first start, but he turned around and gave up four runs in his last outing against Seattle. He’s now walked seven in his last two outings.
Rich Hill (3-2, 4.18 ERA): Say what you will about the 43-year-old, but at least he’s throwing strikes. Hill sits in the 68th percentile of all pitchers in walk rate, and despite a low strikeout rate overall this year, has now sat down 19 in his last three starts, taking him across 17 1/3 innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Blue Jays’ last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Pirates
