Blue Jays vs Pirates Predictions, Picks, Odds: Pittsburgh Ends Six-Game Skid

With a sixth straight loss on Saturday, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ magical start to the season is officially behind them.

However, a pitching matchup in their favor may be just what the doctor ordered on Sunday. Can young Roansy Contreras do the job against the struggling Yusei Kikuchi?

Let’s break down Blue Jays vs. Pirates in our MLB picks and predictions.

Blue Jays vs Pirates odds

Blue Jays vs Pirates predictions

In a vacuum, Roansy Contreras is a far better pitcher than Yusei Kikuchi.

The young right-hander has a prospect pedigree and comes into this one with just 131 Big League innings under his belt. He’s continued to improve with each outing, and as of now, he’s got a 4.09 ERA which would be much lower if not for one catastrophic outing against the Astros.

Around that one, he’s been solid though not stellar. His walk rate is a concern, but he’s only given up six barrels for a 6.3% rate and his .252 xBA against is right around average.

Kikuchi, on the other hand, has an 11% barrel rate for a third straight season, a .437 xwOBA on contact, and a 5.22 xERA. While the lefty doesn’t walk many people, it’s because he throws an incredibly hittable pitch.

Pittsburgh’s offense may be going through rough times right now, but a lot of it has to do with a 28.6% strikeout rate over the last week. Against a strike-thrower who loves allowing hard-hit balls, I think that may change.

My best bet: Pirates moneyline (+118 at SIA)

Blue Jays vs Pirates moneyline analysis

As I noted above, the swing and miss have really killed the Pirates of late.

For the season they’re eighth in barrels per plate appearance, however, and fifth in hard-hit balls per swing. It would seem that when the Pirates get the bat on the ball, good things happen.

It’s still early, too, but the Pirates’ 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitching ranks fifth in all of baseball. They’ve been struck out in just 20.9% of those plate appearances and have walked in 10.9%. Those are delectable numbers, particularly against a pitcher this flawed.

On top of that, the Blue Jays have cooled off a bit over the last week, ranking 11th in wRC+ after running up near the top of the league for a while. This is attainable for the home team.

Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under analysis

While the number is high at 9 runs, I’d still advise taking the Over if you’re going to be betting the total.

I’m supremely confident in the Pirates' offense figuring it out against Kikuchi, but I’m admittedly a bit nervous about Contreras. Nervous enough that I wouldn’t bank on him escaping this start without a couple of runs attached to his name.

Over at DraftKings, 53% of the tickets wagered on the total are on the Over, while 66% of the handle has come in on the Over as well. That would seem to support this position, though it’s worth noting that we’ve actually seen a slim five-cent move towards the Under in the betting market.

Blue Jays vs Pirates game info

Blue Jays vs Pirates betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yusei Kikuchi (4-0, 4.02 ERA): The left-hander has actually put together four competent starts so far this year, but his last outing was one of his two clunkers. He surrendered two dingers and five runs on nine hits to a strong Red Sox offense

Roansy Contreras (3-2, 4.09 ERA): The story is the same with Contreras, who’s had two bad outings and four good ones. His latest classifies as bad; Contreras matched a season-high with four walks and compounded that with six hits allowed, all amounting to four runs for the Rays over his 5 1/3 innings.

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Trend to know

The Blue Jays are 1-10 in Kikuchi’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores two runs or fewer in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Pirates

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