It may not be the season the Toronto Blue Jays envisioned, but at least they are trying to end it on a high note, taking on the Texas Rangers tonight.
See why I'm backing the Over with my MLB picks for September 17.
Blue Jays vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-122 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
With Chris Bassitt facing off against Nathan Eovaldi in tonight’s opener, it would be no surprise to see the total sitting at 7.5 … if this were 2021.
Yes, this total seems to give credit to the starting pitchers for their names more than their numbers. And these two pitchers have a lot in common heading into this matchup: They're both veteran right-handers and both have been very inconsistent in 2024.
Let’s start with Eovaldi. The Texas Rangers starter is pitching to a 3.90 expected ERA while surrendering a .250 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 55th and 36th percentiles among qualified MLB pitchers.
Eovaldi will have to deal with a much-improved Toronto Blue Jays lineup.
Toronto has undoubtedly become more fun to watch following the trade deadline, as the team has given more playing time to younger players, trying to figure out what they have for the future (it doesn’t hurt that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to tear the cover off the baseball, either).
And wouldn’t you know it, the Jays have been winning more baseball games, going 21-19 with a +34 run differential since August 1, with the offense being a big catalyst. In fact, Toronto ranks eighth in batting average, seventh in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ in that stretch.
Meanwhile, the highs and lows have arguably been even more extreme for Bassitt, who owns a 4.26 ERA, is giving up a .256 xBA, and has surrendered three or more earned runs in nine of his past 12 starts. Even though the Rangers’ lineup hasn't performed as expected this season, there are still plenty of dangerous hitters in this lineup that are more than capable of jumping on some poor pitches.
When you also consider that the Rangers and Blue Jays rank 23rd and 27th, respectively, in terms of bullpen xFIP, then the total for this matchup just doesn’t look right. I like there to be enough scoring to send this game Over the 7.5 tonight.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+185 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Since the Blue Jays are using a bunch of young hitters in their lineup these days, not a lot of guys tonight have much experience against Eovaldi. So, look for them to look to Guerrero for some tips.
You know by now that Vladdy's having a strong comeback season and has been a premier run producer. Guerrero enters this game hitting .319 with a .938 OPS, 28 home runs, and 96 runs batted in.
Not only is the Blue Jays star first baseman locked in this season, but he’s also got great career numbers against Eovaldi. Vladdy has collected seven hits in 20 career at-bats vs. Eovaldi, including a double and a dinger, while striking out just twice. That ‘s good for a .291 xBA and a .469 xSLG.
Vladdy has driven in at least one run in eight of his last 14 games, so a +185 price tag for him to do so again is too good to pas up. Plus, our Covers Prop Projections have this play priced as a five-star play.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Blue Jays vs Rangers odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers live odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +120 | Texas -140
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -180 | Texas -1.5 +150
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup at +120, but early bettors have seen some value in the road dog, with Toronto now in the +115 range.
- Both these AL teams are having disappointing seasons, but Toronto's trending in the right direction heading into this matchup, having won three in a row, while Texas has lost five of six.
- The total hit the board at 7.5, and that's where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.
- As noted above, this number feels too low considering Toronto's improved offense, Bassitt's inconsistent performance, and a bullpen that has been one of the worst in baseball this season.
Blue Jays vs Rangers trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 54 away games for +16.00 Units and a 20% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rangers.
Blue Jays vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, BSSW |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (10-13, 4.20 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Nathan Eovaldi (11-8, 3.67 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Rangers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Rangers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
