What will Bowden Francis do for an encore?
The Toronto Blue Jays starter is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball and is coming off losing a no-hitter in the ninth inning for the second time in four starts.
My MLB picks and Blue Jays vs. Rangers predictions believe he will continue his dominant run and put Toronto in a winning spot when he takes the ball on Wednesday, September 18 against Cody Bradford and the Texas Rangers.
Blue Jays vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays F5 moneyline (-109 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
One week ago, Toronto Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis threw eight no-hit innings against the New York Mets. He took a 1-0 lead into the ninth before it all came crashing down, as Francisco Lindor led off the top of the ninth with a solo home run. It was the exact same way Francis lost his no-hitter three starts ago.
To make matters worse, the Blue Jays bullpen did its thing by collapsing in on itself like a dying star, and they lost the game by a score of 6-2.
Terrible ending aside, there is no denying that Francis is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The 28-year-old right-hander has been dealing for more than a month now, pitching to a 1.50 ERA while limiting opponents to a .101 batting average over his last seven starts.
Despite the Texas Rangers’ offensive outburst in Game 1 of this series, Francis is primed to put his team in a position to win once again.
While 2024 has been a disappointing season for the Jays, you can make the case that it’s been even worse for the Rangers. The reigning World Series champions aren’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet but it’s unlikely they’ll defend their title in earnest eight games out of a Wild Card spot.
A big reason for that is the Rangers' offense taking a huge step back in 2024. The once-dangerous lineup has looked sapped of all its power and the effort has definitely been lacking since the All-Star break. Texas ranks 24th in batting average, 27th in OPS, and 26th in wRC+ in the second half.
Meanwhile, facing right-handers has been a problem all season. The Rangers rank 19th in batting average, 25th in OPS, and 21st in wRC+ vs. righties. So, yeah, Francis could be a problem for them tonight.
Countering Francis is Cody Bradford. The 26-year-old left-hander earned a spot in the Rangers’ rotation coming out of camp, but a back and rib injury cost him nearly three months on the injured list and the numbers since his return have been mixed.
The southpaw has had some solid performances against teams like the Yankees, Guardians, and Angles, but he was just hammered by the Diamondbacks in his latest start. Bradford owns a 5.05 ERA over nine games (eight starts) since coming off the IL.
Now he’s got to contend with a Blue Jays lineup that has been much more exciting since the trade deadline. Toronto ranks seventh in batting average, sixth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ since Aug. 1.
I like Francis to carry the Jays to a lead through five innings, but stay away from the full-game moneyline with that disastrous Toronto bullpen always lurking.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladmir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Another Blue Jays game, another Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI. Now, you might say continuously betting Vladdy’s RBI prop is boring and unoriginal. But there is nothing boring about making money. Because I will keep betting it as long as sportsbooks are giving me value.
The Blue Jays star first baseman is coming off yet another multi-hit game, going 3-for-5 with a double and an RBI in yesterday’s opener. He enters tonight hitting .322 with a .942 OPS, 28 home runs, and 97 RBI. Vladdy has also driven in at least one run in nine of his last 15 games overall and I like the odds for him to drive in another tonight.
Guerrero is also smashing southpaws. Vladdy is hitting .315 with a .991 OPS when digging in against left-handed pitching this season. Yet oddsmakers are still offering a +150 price tag on Vladdy to get an RBI. At that price, our Covers Prop Projections have that as a five-star play.
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Blue Jays vs Rangers odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers live odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +105 | Texas -125
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-205) | Texas -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Blue Jays vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this American League matchup at +105 but early bettors have seen value in Francis and the road dogs with Toronto now in the -105 range.
- The move makes sense when you consider that Toronto has the edge in both the starting pitching battle and the lineups. The only thing holding the Jays back is their bullpen, which has the third-worst ERA in baseball.
- The total hit the board at 8 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 7.5.
- The Blue Jays' improved offense and shaky bullpen have made them a solid Over bet in the second half of the season, but with Francis going and Toronto's struggles vs. southpaws, the Under could be in play here.
Blue Jays vs Rangers trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 55 away games for +14.15 Units and a 17% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rangers.
Blue Jays vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Southwest |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Bowden Francis (8-4, 3.50 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Cody Bradford (5-3, 3.98 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Rangers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Rangers weather
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