With their injury woes largely in the rearview mirror, the Toronto Blue Jays can have no excuses if they fall flat down the stretch — and this afternoon’s series decider against the Cincinnati Reds is exactly the type of game they’ve got to win.
After dropping the opener 1-0 on Friday night, the Blue Jays bounced back yesterday in another tight contest, with Davis Schneider’s solo home run proving to be the difference in a 4-3 victory.
The Reds have their own playoff hopes — and, like Toronto, they enter today’s game chasing a wildcard spot. With this series up for grabs, Cincinnati turns to Hunter Greene this afternoon on his return from a hip injury for his first start since June 17.
Read more in our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs Reds on August 20.
Blue Jays vs Reds odds
Blue Jays vs Reds predictions
Toronto Blue Jays starter Hyun-Jin Ryu can relate to what Hunter Greene is facing as he returns from two months on the sidelines. Ryu came back from a much longer layoff on Aug. 1 and has needed some time to rediscover his rhythm. But Greene has a few factors in his favor — namely that he’s fresh and is a relative unknown for this Blue Jays lineup.
While two starters finding their way after injuries might seem like a recipe for a high-scoring matchup, I like Ryu and Greene to keep hitters in check before turning things over to bullpens, who’ve been lights out in this series. There were no runs scored after the top of the fifth inning yesterday.
With Toronto’s ongoing struggles at the plate, it’s hard to feel good about the visitors snapping out of that funk here. Bo Bichette’s return is a boost, but the Under has been a winning ticket in seven of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games. The Cincinnati Reds have trended in the same direction, with the Under hitting in eight of their last 10 contests, and I’m banking on a similar story today.
Ryu and Greene can also feed off good outings in this matchup last year. The Toronto lefty threw six scoreless innings against Cincinnati last May, while Greene gave up just a single run in six innings in that same 2022 series.
Given what we’ve seen so far in this series, 10 runs feels like a big ask for these offenses. I’m grabbing the odds for Under 9.5.
My best bet: Under 9.5 (-135 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Reds same-game parlay
Under 9.5
Blue Jays moneyline
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 bases
This feels like a coin-flip rubber match, but I’m leaning towards a Blue Jays team that’s hit the first five innings moneyline in eight of its past 15 road games, and has seen Ryu get better with each start since returning.
I’m adding Daulton Varsho to the mix too. He’s already got three hits in this series, and I see him getting on base again this afternoon.
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Blue Jays vs Reds moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Reds are narrow favorites this afternoon despite the possibility of some rust on Greene’s return to the mound, but this is shaping up to be another nail-biter in a hard-fought series.
Neither team brings a lot of reliable form into today’s battle, with Toronto holding a 4-6 mark in their last 10 games and Cincinnati at just 5-5. But the visitors have been a solid road team all year, with a 36-29 record away from Rogers Centre. The Reds are sub-.500 at Great American Ball Park (31-33).
The Blue Jays managed nine hits yesterday after having just three on Friday night, but they were without George Springer again as he recovers from an ankle injury. Springer’s presence would be a timely jolt for a lineup that’s been flailing lately.
Though the spotlight has been on Toronto’s grim scoring run, the Cincinnati offense — currently in the Top 10 for runs, RBIs and OBP — has been unusually quiet in this series, with just 10 hits over the past two games. As I’ve flagged above, the case for the Under is a compelling one.
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Trend to know
The Under tends to be in play when these teams square off. It’s 7-2-1 in their last 10 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Reds
Blue Jays vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, August 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Ohio |
Starting pitchers
Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-1, 2.57 ERA): Ryu is seemingly locking down a spot in the Toronto rotation for the final months of the season. He’s got three starts and 14 innings under his belt, and he got through five solid innings in the Blue Jays’ 11-4 win over the Chicago Cubs last week.
Hunter Greene (2-4, 3.93 ERA): Greene’s second season in the big leagues has been derailed by a hip injury, but he’s worked his way back and the challenge now is to regain the form he showed in April (2.19 ERA) and briefly in June (3.12 ERA).
