Starting pitching was supposed to be one of the strengths of this Toronto Blue Jays team, but that wasn’t the case on Opening Weekend. Ace Alek Manoah and big offseason acquisition Chris Bassitt were both shelled as the team dropped its first series of the season two games to one to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Monday, the Jays' long road trip to open 2023 continues tonight in Kansas City against the Royals, where they’ll have to rely on a pitcher who is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career if they hope to open the series with a win. That of course is Jose Berrios.
With the inconsistent Berrios on the bump combined with the dangerous Toronto lineup, is the Over a lock tonight in Kansas City?
I break down this American League matchup and bring you my best bet in my MLB picks and predictions for the Blue Jays vs. Royals.
Blue Jays vs Royals odds
Blue Jays vs Royals predictions
It felt like not a whole lot went right for the Blue Jays over the weekend.
Even though they won on Opening Day, Alek Manoah had maybe the worst start of his career and the bullpen struggled to maintain the lead all game. On Saturday, Kevin Gausman pitched well but errors and the bats going silent cost them. And on Sunday, Chris Bassitt allowed three home runs in the first inning and Toronto never recovered.
One thing that did go right for the Jays was Matt Chapman’s bat. This is Chapman’s second year with the Blue Jays and he looks much more comfortable than he did at this time last season.
In 2022, it felt like Chapman was pressing at the dish early on to try and endear himself to his teammates. It resulted in him hitting just .201 through the first two months of the season and it took him until June 5 to record two three-hit games.
Well, this year he’s got two three-hit games by April 2. Chapman was locked in against the Cardinals, going 6-for-12 (.500) with two doubles over the weekend. If there’s something I know about betting early-season baseball, it’s that you ride a hot streak.
Tonight, Chapman will dig in against Royals’ starter Brady Singer. Kansas City has high hopes for Singer this season and he’s coming off a strong spring.
Singer primarily uses a sinker and slider to get batters out, but at times last season the sinker didn’t sink, and opposing batters teed off on it. The right-hander ranked in the Bottom 28% in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Chapman has also seen the ball well out of Singer’s hand in limited career at-bats, going 3-for-5 against him with a double. The Singer will hand the ball off to a bullpen that ranked 27th in ERA and 28th in opponent batting average.
It’s worth backing Chapman to go Over his total bases prop tonight at solid plus money.
My best bet: Matt Chapman Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
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Blue Jays vs Royals moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays are just -130 home favorites for this American League matchup as of Monday afternoon and that tells me two things: Brady Singer has looked good in camp and could make a jump in his development this season, and Jose Berrios was such a train wreck last year it’s hard to price the Jays any higher than this.
Berrios’ first full season in Toronto was nothing short of a disaster. The team signed him that offseason to be the team’s ace and he was basically the opposite. His 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP were his worst since his rookie season with the Minnesota Twins, and he allowed more hits and earned runs than any other starter in the American League.
However, the Blue Jays are confident they can get him back to the guy who had a 3.74 ERA between 2017 and 2021, and maybe a start against the Royals is what he’ll need to get on the right track.
Kansas City didn’t have much pop in its lineup last year — ranking 24th in OPS — and it looks like it could be more of the same in 2023 if Opening Weekend was any indication. The Royals plated just four runs in their three-game set against the Twins, hitting an MLB-worst .133 over the weekend.
As a member of the Blue Jays, Berrios has made two starts against the Royals while allowing two runs on 12 hits and striking out 14 in 12 1/3 innings of work.
All that said, I’m staying away from the Jays as favorites for a few reasons. Singer has given them some problems and can keep the Royals in the game, but more importantly, the volatility of Berrios. He’s hard to trust until he proves he can be reliable once again.
Blue Jays vs Royals Over/Under analysis
However, that combination of volatility and a good Toronto offense does have me leaning toward the Over in this matchup, which is sitting on the board at an even 8.0.
We saw on Opening Day how dangerous this new Blue Jays lineup can be, plating 10 runs on 19 hits without hitting a home run. While Singer has some great potential, in one start against the Jays last season he allowed three runs on eight hits, including two dingers in just five innings.
Toronto will want to build up his pitch count early to get into a subpar Kansas City bullpen.
Even a bad-hitting team like the Royals will have a chance to plate some runs against Berrios. The right-hander was having trouble controlling his slurve last season which meant he was relying on his mediocre fastball more.
As a result, Berrios ranked in the Bottom 11% in MLB in expected ERA, expected opponent batting average, expected opponent slugging percentage, and hard-hit percentage. Just ugly.
While not an official bet from me, the Over looks like a solid play tonight.
Blue Jays vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Monday, April 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Kansas City, Sportsnet |
Blue Jays vs Royals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Berrios could have won an award for the most shockingly bad season by an American League pitcher in 2022. His numbers were his worst since his rookie season and he'll look to bounce back in 2023.
Brady Singer (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Singer is a sinker-ball pitcher who is coming off a solid season where he posted a 3.23 ERA. He built off that with a strong spring, pitching to a 2.13 ERA.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over went 19-12-1 in Berrios' starts last season. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals
