After back-to-back nightmare starts, the Toronto Blue Jays turn to wildcard Yusei Kikuchi tonight for the second game of their series with the Kansas City Royals.
The Blue Jays’ starting rotation was widely considered a strength heading into this season, but Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios were pounded early and often in consecutive losses — and Toronto is suddenly dealing with a three-game skid.
The Royals were swept by the Twins in their first series of 2023 but rebounded with a 9-5 win over the Blue Jays last night. The Kansas City bats gave Brady Singer a healthy cushion, and he kept Toronto off the scoreboard until the fifth inning.
Find out more about tonight’s matchup with our free MLB betting picks for Blue Jays vs. Royals below.
Blue Jays vs Royals odds
Blue Jays vs Royals predictions
After the shellacking that Bassitt and Berrios took in the Toronto Blue Jays' last two outings, the bar has been set pretty low for Yusei Kikuchi tonight – but Toronto desperately needs some consistency from its erratic lefty.
Kikuchi didn’t face much competition to lock down the fifth spot in the rotation, but his 2022 numbers made for ugly reading after signing a three-year, $36-million contract to come to Toronto.
Somehow, he managed to finish with a 6-7 record, but the full story includes a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He walked a whopping 58 batters in 100 2/3 innings before the Blue Jays decided to shut him down.
That version of Kikuchi always kept the Over in play – and facing the Kansas City Royals’ Kris Bubic here should only help pad the run total here. Yes, Kikuchi has looked sharp in Spring Training – but it’s tough to look past last year’s woes.
Bubic posted a 3-13 mark last season for the Royals and numbers that were no better than Kikuchi’s, but the 25-year-old is getting a chance to earn a spot in the rotation. Still, a head-to-head battle between two unpredictable, erratic pitchers feels like a nice spot to take the Over.
The Over has hit in the Blue Jays’ last five games against a left-handed starter – and more specifically, Bubic’s last four starts have all cashed in the Over. Matt Chapman has particularly enjoyed facing Bubic – he’s 3-for-6 with a homer and a double.
Neither pitcher feels like a lock to be in control on the mound, and I’m counting on the Blue Jays continuing their run of high-scoring games.
My best bet: Over 9.5 (-133 at BetVictor)
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Blue Jays vs Royals moneyline analysis
Despite the pitching horrors of the past few days, the Blue Jays are again favored on the road here – which seems largely out of respect for a line-up that promises a lot more production than it’s delivered so far. Bo Bichette homered late in yesterday’s contest, but Vladimir Guerrero and Daulton Varsho are waiting for their first long ball of the year.
While the Spring Training reports were favorable, it remains to be seen whether Kikuchi gets back on track in 2023 and rediscovers the form that made him an All-Star selection with the Seattle Mariners in 2021.
However, last year’s version had some brutal outings – and the Blue Jays lost his last four starts on grass fields. The visitors have also lost in each of Kikuchi’s last five road starts.
The Royals’ bats came to play last night and the hosts made the most of their 10 hits, turning them into nine runs. Once again, the damage came early for Toronto, as Kansas City raced into a 3-0 lead in the first inning.
M.J. Melendez and Bobby Witt Jr. both had two-hit, two-RBI nights as Berrios was charged with 8 ER and exited the game after 5 2/3 innings with a 12.71 ERA. Expect to see more of the Royals’ right-handed batters against Kikuchi.
Blue Jays vs Royals Over/Under analysis
As I’ve laid out above, this has all the makings of a high-scoring game, featuring two pitchers on the fringes of the rotation who both posted an ERA north of 5.1 in 2022. Three of Toronto’s four games have blown past a 9.5-run line, including last night’s 9-5 scoreline. Even in a sluggish start, the Blue Jays are averaging five runs per game.
Both bullpens have something to prove too. There was plenty of rust from the Toronto relievers in the Cardinals series, though their best arms should be fresh after a night off yesterday. As for Kansas City, their bullpen remains a work in progress around closer Scott Barlow.
Several Kansas City hitters have not only faced Kikuchi but taken hits off him in prior meetings. Matt Duffy is 3-for-3, Hunter Dozier is 3-6 and Nicky Lopez is 2-6.
Blue Jays vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Kansas City |
Blue Jays vs Royals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The Kikuchi bounceback tour is underway, but now the Blue Jays need to see that translate to a reliable year on the mound after his 5.19 ERA in 2022. The fastball is everything with Kikuchi – and if he’s not locating it, it could be another short outing.
Kris Bubic (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Bubic struggled for accuracy and consistency last year, piling up walks and finishing with an ERA of 5.58. Still, he’ll have every opportunity to refine his craft this season on a rebuilding Kansas City roster.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over has been a winning ticket in Bubic’s last four home starts where the run total was set between 9 and 10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals
