It might be wise to target the total in St. Louis instead of a side.
The St. Louis Cardinals have dropped the first two games of their series with the Atlanta Braves and will be out to salvage something from the meeting on Wednesday when they send Miles Mikolas to the hill for his second start to the season.
Is there reason to believe in the veteran turning things around here, or will Atlanta get the better of him? Without further ado, let’s break down the Braves vs. Cardinals in our MLB picks and predictions.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
Braves vs Cardinals predictions
Miles Mikolas’ first start was one to forget. He allowed 10 hits over 3 1/3 innings to the Blue Jays last week, resulting in five earned runs. He even hit a batter for good measure, though he would rescue his line a bit with six punchouts.
It was a nightmare beginning to his brand new contract extension, and it’s hard to find anything good to say about it. The biggest issue was that Mikolas wasn’t rolling up ground balls anywhere close to the way he’s done through his career, and the strikeouts were a bit odd considering he’s never come anywhere close to punching guys out at that kind of rate.
That’s all to say, this is another tough spot for Mikolas. The Braves had the 12th-lowest ground ball rate in baseball last season and scored three runs off of the righty the only time they saw him in 2022 on five hits, including two homers.
I don’t really think Bryce Elder is much better — considering he’s entering off of a start where he allowed four earned over six frames — but he at least cut back on the walks which killed him last season in his opening start. He had a good 2022 but was likely a bit fortunate to have his 3.17 ERA in 10 games.
This is all to say that I like the Over here. Both offenses have been hot out of the gates and there are plenty of reasons to hate both pitchers.
My best bet: Over 9 (-115 at Bwin)
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Braves vs Cardinals moneyline analysis
Most people like to essentially “feel out” teams during the baseball season. What I mean by this is that bettors will simply say, Well, X team has to win at some point. That was my initial thinking for why the Cardinals were favorites by a decent amount in this spot, until I saw the money splits.
Over at DraftKings, just 46% of moneyline tickets are on the Cardinals, and a commanding 78% of the handle is on St. Louis. So, it’s not as if the public is trying to predict momentum swings: it would appear there is some big money coming in on the home team.
I would ultimately side with the Cardinals in this spot due to my distrust of Elder, but it’s a pretty hard call. I think both of these offenses are ridiculously talented and it would seem both pitchers are in bad spots. That’s why I like avoiding a side altogether.
Braves vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis
This number is quite high, and I think most would look at a matchup between two guys who had ERAs of 3.29 or better last year (and involving a 2022 All-Star) and think nine runs is far too many.
While I do agree there’s certainly a world where both of these pitchers figure it out, I really don’t trust them against these mammoth offenses. The Cardinals can absolutely wallop the ball and Elder proved last year he allows far too much contact to really be trusted against a disciplined team at the plate.
On the other side, we covered how the Braves have been able to get the ball in the air. A team that registers barrels and hard-hit balls like Atlanta oftentimes gets to pitchers like Mikolas who like to pitch to contact, with some exceptions.
It’s just so much easier to bet on runs here versus trying to figure out a side. Because of this, 60% of the bets and 67% of the money are on the Over.
Braves vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 5, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally South, Bally Midwest |
Braves vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Bryce Elder (0-0, 0.00 ERA): After registering a 2.21 ERA in Triple-A to close out 2021, the Braves gave Elder 18 starts at that level to begin 2022, only to see him struggle to a 4.46 ERA. When he was elevated to the big leagues, he was a much better pitcher with a 3.17 mark, though it came in just 54 innings. 2023 will be a big test for him.
Miles Mikolas (0-0, 13.50 ERA): The 34-year-old signed a new extension with the Cardinals prior to his start on Opening Day, only to turn in one of his worst performances in some time. The crafty righty threw a whopping 202.1 innings last season, making his second All-Star team with a 3.29 ERA in 32 starts.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams in St. Louis. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
