The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals face off in the second contest of a three-game set at Busch Stadium on Saturday night.
Atlanta exploded for an 11-4 victory last night and will look to continue its red-hot play. However, St. Louis has also been on fire lately and won't be a pushover in what opened as close to a pick'em line.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Cardinals on August 27.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Braves installed as slim -115 road faves with the Over/Under at 7.5 and juiced slightly towards the Under at -115. As of 10 a.m. ET the line has stayed steady but the Under 7.5 is now at -120.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Cardinals predictions
Picks made on 8/27/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Cardinals game info
• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Saturday, August 27, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Braves vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (6-5, 3.99 ERA): The two-time All-Star was one of Atlanta's most reliable arms a year ago but has been wildly inconsistent this season. It seems like he either throws a gem as he did in his last two starts (two earned runs allowed and 23 strikeouts in 12 2-3 innings vs. the Astros and Mets) or gets shredded as he did in his previous outing before that where he gave up three dingers to the Red Sox. He has really struggled on the road where he has a 5.08 ERA with an OBA of .263 in 11 starts.
Jordan Montgomery (4-0, 0.35 ERA): The lefty was acquired by the Cardinals at the trade deadline and has been lights out with his new team, allowing just 13 hits and one run in 25 2-3 innings across four starts. He's fresh off throwing a complete-game one-hitter against the Cubs.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 12-3-3 in the Braves last 18 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
Braves vs Cardinals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Despite that ugly defeat last night, the Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have gone 21-6 over the last 30 days. One of the few teams that might be hotter are the Braves, who have won 15 of their previous 17 contests.
Although both of these teams have virtually identical OPS numbers on the year (Braves second in the majors at .764 and the Cards fourth at .757), St. Louis has been mashing better than anyone this month.
Atlanta is third in the majors with an OPS of .806 during the month of August but the Cards are far ahead of it in first place at a whopping .880.
The Cardinals will send Jordan Montgomery to the mound today and the southpaw has been terrific ever since being acquired at the trade deadline. He had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP in 21 starts with the Yankees but has pitched to a sizzling 0.35 ERA with a 0.62 in four starts with the Cards.
Obviously, those numbers are not sustainable long term, but his outlook is still very promising.
The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton who has been a bit inconsistent this year, but has for the most part been very effective over the last couple of months. In his last 12 starts, Morton has pitched to a 2.64 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and OBA of .186.
It's easy to see why this line is so close since both of these lineups have been raking and both have starters who have been throwing fire in recent weeks. But with how dominant Montgomery has been since joining the Redbirds, I'll lean towards the home side in a bounce-back spot.
Prediction: Cardinals ML (+100 at 888sport)
Over/Under analysis
As good as these starters have been, there is reason to think that this total might be a tad too deflated by the park factors.
While the pitcher-friendly confines of Busch Stadium have affected the Cardinals' opponents (with St. Louis allowing just 3.36 runs per game at home compared to 4.44 on the road), they don't appear to have hurt the Cards too much.
The Cardinals OPS and runs per game numbers at home and away are virtually identical, which says a lot about how well their lineup makes contact even if they can't go yard.
Morton is still a volatile pitcher — and when he's cooking he's awesome — but when things go south for him they go south in a hurry. He has allowed at least five runs in three of his last seven starts (while not allowing a single run in three other outings).
Morton's filthy curveball remains his greatest weapon, but the St, Louis lineup is loaded with sluggers who do an excellent job of making contact against that offering.
As good as Montgomery has been, he is clearly due for major regression and the Braves mash against southpaws boasting an OPS of .798.
With how well both of these squads have been hitting, I like the possibility that at least one of them will go off and that should be enough to go Over this low total.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (+100 at bet365)
Best bet
It's tough to pick a side with how well both of these teams are playing, but I feel more confident in the Over because Montgomery and Morton look due for regression based on their long-term history and their unsustainable brilliance over their last couple of outings.
The Cardinals are plating 5.92 runs per game this month while the Braves are averaging 6.13 and this total is simply too low for how explosive they have both been.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100 at bet365)
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