Sunday Night Baseball features a showdown between the Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Both teams have expectations of making a postseason run, making this a marquee matchup on primetime television. Atlanta is 6.5 games up for the first NL Wild Card spot, while St. Louis leads the NL Central by six games.
After splitting the first two games, which team will grab the deciding Game 3?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Cardinals on Sunday, August 28 to find out.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cardinals opened -114 at home and the line has moved in their direction, currently residing between -120 and -132 depending on the book. The total opened at 8 but has moved to 8.5 at some locations.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Cardinals predictions
Picks made on 8/28/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Cardinals game info
• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Sunday, August 28, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Braves vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jake Odorizzi (5-5, 3.95 ERA): Odorizzi has made 16 appearances this season in total, compiling a 3.95 ERA and 4.01 xERA. For the Braves, he has a 1-2 record and 4.35 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP that will need to improve. His 4.8% barrel rate is league average and that’s allowed him to have moderate success despite having just an 18.3% strikeout rate. Last time out, he allowed only one earned run across six innings in a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Adam Wainwright (9-9, 3.11 ERA): The ageless wonder has had a productive age 40 season, winning nine games while maintaining an ERA in the low 3s. His 4.18 xERA and 3.62 FIP indicate that he’s been somewhat fortunate this season. He’s allowing the lowest amount of home runs per nine innings (0.81) since his 2014 season, which is partly to explain the decreased ERA relative to peripherals. He’s been hot, allowing only three earned runs across his last three starts.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 12-3-2 in Atlanta's last 17 road games against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
Braves vs Cardinals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This is a close game between two somewhat evenly-matched teams. Yes, the Braves are a little better, but the margins are slim when it comes down to a regular season matchup.
Let’s dive in and discern where the edge lies for Sunday Night Baseball. A case can be made that the Cardinals have the edge both on the mound and at the plate.
St. Louis has the starting pitching advantage. It’s not as drastic of a difference as some might think between these two pitchers, as Wainwright has a 4.18 xERA while Odorizzi’s is actually lower at 4.01.
Still, that’s not the only factor that gets taken into account when handicapping. Wainwright has been superb at home this season, racking up a 2.11 ERA across 85 1-3 innings at Busch Stadium. Odorizzi has been fine on the road (3.72 ERA), but I’m most concerned about his WHIP since joining Atlanta.
As far as lineups go, the Cardinals have been the hottest team in the league at the plate lately and that has to count for something. They rank first in the league in virtually every category during the month of August, including but not limited to batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They’ve simply been mashing.
The Braves are Top 3 in most of the categories listed above, but they haven’t been performing at quite the same level. Consider OPS for example, where St. Louis (.881) has a nearly 80-point edge over Atlanta (.803) in August.
The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four Sunday games and 4-0 during their last four during Game 3 of a series. They’ve won 20 of their last 26 games and are arguably the hottest team in the league.
I’ll pick them to grab another victory on Sunday Night Baseball.
Prediction: Cardinals moneyline (-120 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
There has been some early money on the Over, pushing the total from 8 at open to 8.5 at current at some locations. Is that money justified?
St. Louis has been ridiculously hot at the plate, ranking first in the league in nearly every category imaginable during the month of August — some by a significant margin, as well.
Odorizzi is a fine pitcher, but he certainly isn’t anything special. For someone who doesn’t miss a lot of bats, his walk rate (6.9%) is higher than I’d like to see and I don’t think his current profile is that of a pitcher with an ERA below 4.00.
The Cardinals are 5-1 to the Over in their last six home games and 7-0 to the Over during their last seven during Game 3 of a series.
The Braves, meanwhile, have one of the best lineups in the league from top to bottom. They’ve been a great bet to the Over this season, going 65-55-8 this season. It’s no mystery how they have those numbers — it’s nearly impossible to navigate this lineup without getting hurt at some point.
Wainwright is a wily veteran, but his 4.18 xERA calls for regression from his 3.11 actual ERA. This is a difficult matchup for any pitcher as it’s difficult to keep Atlanta off the scoreboard. The Over is 12-3-2 in the Braves’ last 17 road games against a team with a winning record and 8-2-4 in their last 14 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher.
I believe the money on the Over is warranted. A flat 8 is still available in the market, so I’m taking Over 8 in this matchup.
Prediction: Over 8 (-105 at WynnBET)
Best bet
I’m rocking with the Over for the best bet on Sunday Night Baseball.
Both of these lineups are dangerous and it’s not like we have elite starting pitchers on the mound. Wainwright deserves the utmost respect for his legendary career and while a 3.11 ERA at age 40 is extremely impressive, his profile is begging for some slight regression and a matchup against the Braves is never easy.
The Cardinals have been the best team at the plate in MLB since the calendar flipped to August, and I don’t see why they’d slow down now against Odorizzi.
The Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six home games and 12-3-2 in the Braves’ last 17 road game against a team with a winning record. I’m betting on fireworks Sunday night.
Note: This line may move to 8.5 across the board soon. I’d still recommend Over 8.5 as the best bet.
Pick: Over 8 (-105 at WynnBET)
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