The St. Louis Cardinals suddenly don't look like the National League's biggest disappointment and are coming off a victory over the Atlanta Braves on Monday night.
While my Braves vs. Cardinals prediction isn't wading into moneyline waters, Nolan Gorman looks like a solid bet to do some damage against Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez in Game 1 of today's doubleheader.
We've got that and more in our MLB picks for Wednesday, June 26.
Braves vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Nolan Gorman's season has been a struggle. The St. Louis Cardinals slugger is hitting .195 through 71 games. He looked to be righting the ship in May but June has been another down month with the stick, but there is reason for optimism.
First, value is value. Very few hitters will draw even money to register one total base in a game. He's been slumping but the contact has been good when he's made it.
Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile among big-league hitters in barrel rate, which is why he's cranked 16 home runs to this point despite a catastrophically low batting average. Yes, he swings and misses far too much, but he also has an expected slugging percentage of .454, which ranks in the 74th percentile. It's an all-or-nothing approach, but when he makes contact, he does damage.
He's been mired by an unfortunate .241 BABIP as well. He's not particularly fast, but some correction can be expected.
To clear 0.5 total bases, he needs just one hit. At even money, it's the safer play, but laddering his total bases is also an option as the Over 1.5 total bases pays +225 at bet365. Of Gorman's 49 hits in 2024, 24 have gone for extra bases. There's a good chance that if he gets a hit this afternoon, he'll clobber one.
Atlanta Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez has done very well in his return to a starting rotation after pitching out of the bullpen for the last couple of seasons. His 1.57 ERA might be something of a mirage, though. His expected ERA is 3.83 and his strikeout rate is down from where it was last season as a reliever.
Gorman has historically done the bulk of his damage against righties as he's floundered in same-handed matchups, so Lopez offers an opportunity to get right.
Again, Gorman's issues with plate discipline and swinging strike rate are well documented and adds some risk here, but even money is too good to pass up and inflated plus money to get two or more bases for a guy with this kind of power is worth taking the big swing this afternoon.
Braves vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 total bases
Kyle Gibson Under 1.5 walks
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Cardinals right-hander Kyle Gibson doesn't miss bats (no one allowed more hits than him in 2023) and while his walk rate is a bit inflated this season, adding Under 1.5 walks gives us another plus-money leg for this parlay. For as vaunted as Atlanta's offense has been, it ranks 25th in MLB in walk percentage (7.5%).
Matt Olson was starting to turn his season around before a slight slump over the last week. An afternoon matchup against a pitcher that doesn't overpower opponents is just what the doctor ordered for the 2023 home run king.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
Braves vs Cardinals live odds
Braves vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+120) | St. Louis +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -130 | St. Louis +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Braves vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves opened at -130 but have been bet down to -125 as of Wednesday morning.
- Despite winning on Monday, only 28% of moneyline picks are coming in on the Cardinals, according to Covers Consensus.
- The total opened with the Over 8.5 at even money but has dipped slightly to a flat 8.0 with the Over juiced to -120.
- After rain banged Tuesday's game, we have a clear forecast at Busch Stadium this afternoon with wind blowing in from left field.
Braves vs Cardinals trend
St. Louis has hit the team total Over in 24 of its last 38 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
Braves vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, BSMW |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (5-2, 1.57 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Kyle Gibson (5-2, 3.44 ERA) |
Braves vs Cardinals latest injuries
Braves vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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