Baseball fans are in for a treat as two of the National League’s best teams meet in a doubleheader Saturday.
The New York Mets (67-39) are on fire, winning eight of their last 10 games. One of those losses came in Game 1 of this series on Thursday, but they quickly got back on track with a win Friday.
The Atlanta Braves (64-43) are 3.5 games back in the NL East standings and are hoping to gain some ground.
Game 2 of Saturday’s doubleheader features a tantalizing pitching matchup between Max Fried and Max Scherzer.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets on Saturday, August 6.
Braves vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as -129 favorites in their home confines of Citi Field. The line hasn’t moved much, as they currently reside between -127 and -136 depending on the book. The total opened at 6.5 but has been bet up to 7 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 8/6/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Saturday, August 6, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: WPIX, Bally Sports
Braves vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Fried (10-3, 2.58 ERA): The left-handed Fried has established himself as one of MLB’s best young pitchers. He’s allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his last eight starts, managing to stay consistent. His 2.83 xERA is actually lower than Scherzer’s, and his 2.47 FIP is fantastic. Walks have never been a concern with him, but he’s found ways of improving by issuing the lowest walk rate (4.5%) of his career. His 2.5%-barrel rate is second-lowest among qualified starters.
Max Scherzer (7-2, 2.13 ERA): Mad Max’s first season in New York was set of course due to injury, causing him to miss the end of May and the entire month of June. He’s been nothing short of his usual phenomenal self since returning, allowing no more than two earned runs in any of his six starts since. Across 14 starts, he has a 2.13 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 3.15 xERA.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 43-21-5 to the Under in their last 69 games of a doubleheader. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The second game of Saturday’s doubleheader between the Braves and the Mets is one that baseball fans should be anxiously awaiting.
Not only does this game feature two of the NL’s top teams, but it also has a fantastic pitching matchup between Max Friend and Max Scherzer.
There isn’t a large pitching advantage for either side, which sounds silly when factoring in the name-power of Scherzer, but is accurate from a statistical standpoint. Fried may not be as well-known as his pitching counterpart, but he actually has the lower xERA between the two (2.83 to 3.15) and is in the same class of elite pitchers.
Let’s take a look at hitting next. The Mets have been red hot, ranking second and wOBA and first in wRC+ over the last 15 days. The Braves have a dangerous lineup as well, but they rank behind the Mets over that sample size (11th in wOBA, 12th in wRC+).
For as good as the Mets’ lineup is, they aren’t fantastic against left-handed pitching. They rank 14th in wOBA and 12th in wRC+ against southpaws on the season. Those numbers look much better in recent days, as they check in at fourth in both wOBA and wRC+ in the last 15 days.
Considering that the Mets are 6-1 in their last seven games against a left-handed starting pitcher, I’m not too concerned about how they match up against southpaws as I would be glancing at the season-long numbers.
The Mets are 9-3 in their last 12 second games of a doubleheader and are 5-2 in their last seven games against the Braves. I expect both of those trends to continue.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-127 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
First, let's talk about just how good both starting pitchers are.
Scherzer needs no introduction by now, as the baseball world knows he is among the elite of the elite. His numbers haven’t seen any sort of drop off in his age-38 season, as his top-notch strikeout rate (31.4%) and walk rate (4.9%) are both in-line with his career numbers. His xERA is usually below 3.00, but is at 3.15 this year. Considering his FIP of 2.64, you shouldn’t be concerned.
Fried doesn’t make quite as many batters whiff (23.1% strikeout rate) but is elite everywhere else. His 2.83 xERA and 2.47 FIP indicate that his 2.58 actual ERA is no fluke. Perhaps the most impressive part of his profile overall is his 2.5% barrel rate — second-best among qualified starters in MLB. He excels at avoiding hard contact and now has a career-low walk rate (4.5%) to go along with it.
The Braves have been trending to the Over, but they haven’t been facing Mad Max at home. The Mets, meanwhile, are 43-21-5 to the Under in their last 69 games of a doubleheader.
The Under is the recommended play.
Prediction: Under 7 (-110 on bet365)
Best bet
Make no mistake, this is a matchup between two great teams and two elite starting pitchers.
Feeling strongly about a side either way is difficult in this one, so I’m targeting the total for the best bet.
Both teams will be tired and operating at less than 100% during the second game of this doubleheader — except for Fried and Scherzer, that is.
This one is set up for a low-scoring matchup and a fantastic pitching duel, so I’m siding with the Under.
Pick: Under 7 (-110 on bet365)
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