Braves vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Strider Sticks It to Mets in Doubleheader Opener

The New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves will finally be back to playing baseball on Monday after a washout of a weekend as they face off in the first game of a doubleheader at Citi Field.

The Braves (18-9) won a rain-shortened first game of the series on Friday to extend their NL East lead to three games over New York. The Mets (15-12) have lost five of their last six, including three of four at home.

Atlanta will have a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup, but just how big is its advantage? We’ll break down what to expect in this game in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets on May 1.

Braves vs Mets odds

Braves vs Mets predictions

The Mets may be happy to have missed out on two games over the weekend thanks to the washout weather in New York. They’ve lost five of their last six, with the only win coming in a wild 9-8 game against the Washington Nationals on Thursday. New York also lost Friday’s rain-shortened contest to the Braves by a 4-0 score after five innings.

The small losing streak shouldn’t get bettors too down on the Mets. New York remains one of the better teams in the National League, a likely playoff team, and even a contender to win a World Series. Before this week, the Mets were rolling through their opponents, and they’ll only get better when Justin Verlander returns to the rotation.

Still, New York won’t have an easy time on Monday. The Mets will have to face Spencer Strider, who has been among the best pitchers early in the 2023 season. Coming off a 2022 effort in which he nearly won the NL Rookie of the Year Award — finishing second to teammate Michael Harris II — Strider has continued to impress this year, putting up a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings.

Strider has been particularly strong in his last two starts. In those outings, he has given up just three hits in 14 innings without allowing a run. There’s pretty much nobody a struggling National League team would like to see on the mound less right now.

The Mets have plenty of pitchers that could give them a chance to hang in a game against Strider. Unfortunately for New York, they’re turning to fringe pitcher Denyi Reyes to pitch the first game of the doubleheader. 

Reyes has been a solid option out of the bullpen for the Mets this year. He’s given up three hits in 6 1/3 innings so far this year, but this will be his first start of the season, and only the second in his MLB career. 

Reyes has primarily worked as a starter throughout his eight years in the minors, putting up a 3.31 ERA in 130 appearances, 85 of which were starts. However, Reyes has never been seen as a long-term MLB player. 

Part of the issue is that while he dominated lower-level competition, his results became far worse as he moved up to higher levels. In Double-A ball, he put up a 4.18 ERA in 209 innings of work; in Triple-A, that ballooned to a 7.28 ERA in 55 2/3 innings. Reyes’ relatively low velocity and the lack of a secondary pitch that can consistently get swings and misses as the major league level have made him a depth option at best.

This is a terrible mismatch for the Mets, and on Monday, there won’t be any rain to save them. I’m backing Strider and the Braves, even at a relatively short price, as Atlanta should be able to win going away. 

My best bet: Braves -1.5 (-148 at Unibet)

Braves vs Mets moneyline analysis

The Braves are a significant favorite in this game, but the moneyline odds vary significantly across various sportsbooks as of Sunday night. You can find odds as short as -235 on the Braves, or get a number as large as +225 by betting on the underdog Mets.

New York has been playing almost perfectly to the moneyline this year, with bettors breaking even if they bet on the Mets every game in 2023. The Braves have been good for gamblers, and are up 6.5 units on the moneyline this season.

As I noted above, Strider has been excellent this year, and nearly unhittable over his last two starts. The Braves are 5-0 in his starts this season, and also won eight of the last 10 games he started in 2022. Right now, there are few pitchers who are more reliable winners for their teams than Strider is for Atlanta.

I don’t love the -235 (or longer) odds we have to pay here to bet on the Braves. The Mets’ lineup has the potential to get to virtually any pitcher, so New York will always have a puncher’s chance here. But this pitching matchup is so one-sided that I think the smart money is still on Atlanta. While I’m taking the run line, I think habitual moneyline bettors are best off going with the Braves in that market as well.

Braves vs Mets Over/Under analysis

The most common total at sites as of Sunday night is 8.5 runs. You can find odds as good as +100 on the Under, and while most sites are favoring the Over slightly, you can still find a -108 if you’re expecting these teams to go over the number.

The Braves have played above their totals this year, with the Over going 16-11 in Atlanta games. On the other hand, the Mets are generally playing in low-scoring games, with the Under going 14-11-2 when New York is playing.

This biggest figure in this game is Strider, who we can expect to keep the Mets’ lineup under wraps. Strider has been dominant on the mound this year, and was reasonably effective against New York last season, going 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA. In two of his three starts against the Mets, he allowed just one run, but had one rough outing in which they touched him up for four runs in 2 2/3 innings.

I expect Strider to do well on Monday, as he has done against virtually everyone since late last season. Reyes is more of an unknown quantity, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Atlanta will knock him around so badly that they can approach the Over on the own. Even with just one great pitcher on the mound, I’m leaning towards the Under, especially with even money odds available at some sites.

Braves vs Mets game info

Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider (3-0, 1.80 ERA): A year after finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year race, Strider looks like he may be upping his game yet again in 2023. The 24-year-old is currently leading the National League with a 1.72 FIP, and paces the majors with 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Strider is coming off eight innings of two-hit ball against the Miami Marlins on Monday, in which he struck out 13 while allowing no runs.

Denyi Reyes (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Reyes has made five appearances out of the bullpen this year for the Mets, allowing just three hits in 6 1/3 innings of work. The 26-year-old had a cup of tea with the Baltimore Orioles last season, but has extensive minor league experience, where he has started 85 games. Reyes possesses little velocity, but his breaking balls are solid enough to be major league quality, and he should get innings this year as a depth option in multiple roles for New York.

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