Braves vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Elder Struggles To Keep Pace

Game 3 of the most exciting playoff series thus far is upon us when the Atlanta Braves meet the Philadelphia Phillies. 

For a moment, it looked like it was all over for the Braves. They would head back to Philly as heavy MLB odds underdogs, and the Phillies would grab at least one game, sending Atlanta home. Then magic happened. Austin Riley hit a bomb, Michael Harris made an incredible defensive play, and Atlanta overcame a 4-0 deficit. Now, what a series we have on our hands, and the Braves' World Series odds revived.

What does the next chapter hold? What's the best bet for this next chapter? 

Find out in our MLB playoff predictions for Braves vs Phillies on Wednesday, October 11.

Braves vs Phillies odds

Braves vs Phillies Game 3 odds

Braves vs Phillies series odds

Team
Braves	-135	-152	-135	-145	-143
Phillies	+115	+124	+115	+122	+120

Braves vs Phillies predictions

I was caught off guard when it became apparent how much of a talking point the Philly crowd noise would be regarding this series. But after a bit of pondering, it sunk in that it had a considerable impact on the series last season and will undoubtedly affect this series. You don't have to take my word for it, either. 

"Yeah," Braves manager Brian Snitker remarked, "It's as nuts a place as I've ever been, that's for sure."

The crowd will be in full force tonight in Citizens Bank. You can bet on that. It leads me to my question of how to best fade Braves pitcher Bryce Elder in such an environment. Why? Well, for starters, I'm getting a guy with an already lousy matchup.

Elder was a ticking time bomb this season. That's not to say he was going to be suddenly bad, but it's to say he was due for some significant regression. Elder was extremely ground-ball-reliant through much of the season but didn't have some of the peripherals that suggest it was sustainable. For example, an expected ERA set above 4 with an actual ERA hovering around 2. That regression occurred when he ended the month surrendering four or more earned runs in four consecutive starts.

Tonight's matchup could be more favorable for Elder. He's a ground ball-reliant pitcher facing a team that doesn't hit many ground balls (seventh-lowest in the majors this season). They also have the heart of their lineup that avoids those ground balls the fewest, with Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and Trea Turner the lowest on its team in ground ball rate. That doesn't begin to mention the Phillies' splits against power/finesse pitches, where they see rises in slugging, batting average, and baBIP against the former. 

The second part of this is the environment above. This is the first postseason start of Elder's career. It comes in a tied series before one of baseball's loudest crowds. All it will take early is a missed pitch location miss or a baserunner to turn this crowd into a frenzy. From there, you can see a scenario where things quickly spiral for Elder on the mound. 

For me, the best way to fade Elder here is for him to go Under his "outs" total. This is too much pressure-packed for me to expect Elder to make it through four innings. The matchup is excellent, and the situation for him to struggle is there. Back Elder getting yanked quickly this evening.

My best bet: Bryce Elder Under 11.5 outs (+100) 

Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay

Elder Under 11.5 outs
Nola Over 4.5 strikeouts
Castellanos over 1.5 bases

+550 at bet365

We're paring our best bet with two other plays in this same-game parlay.

The first of these is Aaron Nola Over 4.5 strikeouts. Nola has been rock solid in these playoffs and is getting an Atlanta Braves team that has struck out just over nine times over its last three games. He should easily go over this as long as he can stay in the game. 

I'm finishing things off with Nick Castellanos to go Over 1.5 bases. Castellanos hasn't had the best postseason, but he's coming off a game where he exceeded this number. I like his matchup tonight against a pitcher he's seen five times and gone deep against twice. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

If forced to pick a side here, it will be the Phillies. My projections don't indicate much value in betting them, but they have a lot going for them.

We've spoken at length about what the home-field advantage means for the Phillies in the postseason and what it meant for the Braves. That's just something that can't be discounted in this matchup. That holds even more true where we have such a contrast in pitching. One starter is making his first postseason appearance, and the other is a seasoned veteran. One likely folds under this type of pressure; I know which one I'm expecting it to be. 

I have a limited opinion on the total in this one. It is priced accurately. I'd lean Under, but it's with minimum conviction. The last 10 games between these two have been about a 50/50 proposition, with six of the ten going Over. In games involving Phillies righty Aaron Nola, two of his last three games have gone Over — all wins by Philadelphia.

Trend to know

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 109 games (+14.00 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.81 ERA): The beginning of the year for Elder was special. He was an All-Star and looked virtually unhittable with one of the highest ground ball rates in the league. Then, some regression happened, and Elder was beaten up in the second half of the season. Elder ended the season allowing four or more earned runs in four consecutive starts, including four earned runs to this Phillies team, two of which game via the long ball. He'll be looking to avenge that here. 

Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA): While his ERA finished higher than you wanted, it's been another decent season for Nola. It was also one where he was unlucky with an actual ERA around 3. Maybe that positive regression is coming in the postseason, though. If his first start in these playoffs is any indication, then that's certainly the case. Six days ago, he opened up his campaign against the Miami Marlins when he posted seven scoreless innings and allowed just three hits. He'll enter tonight with one of the highest forced chase rates in the league — sitting at the Top 3% of baseball among starting pitchers.  

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