Braves vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Pitcher's Duel in Philly

Monday begins in the right way with a solid NL East matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.

Game 1 is a makeup game from their June 21 postponed game with their scheduled series game taking place tonight at 6:40 pm EST. The betting lines for today’s Game 1 seem to be pointing in one direction and we’ve found the best MLB odds for Monday’s matchup. 

Charlie Morton is scheduled to make the start against Philadelphia while the Phillies have penciled in Taijaun Walker (15-5, 4.15) to take the mound in Game 1 of their doubleheader. 

Can the Braves defeat the Phillies today? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Phillies on Monday, September 11,  2023. 

Braves vs Phillies odds

Braves vs Phillies predictions

Monday’s contest is a makeup game from a June 21 rainout and Game 1 of a doubleheader. My best bet for this game is Under 9.5 (-105) at FanDuel.

Charlie Morton has been dependable this season for the Atlanta Braves. He’s allowed a dozen earned runs over his past 23 away frames on the bump and while he's had some command issues this season — the walks are up from his career 3.23 walks per nine — he hasn’t surrendered a home run in his last five starts.

It hasn’t always been pretty, but Morton still gets the job done. The Braves righty took a loss to the Phillies earlier this season but allowed two earned runs and struck out nine.

On the flip side, the Philadelphia Phillies win games when Taijuan Walker pitches at home. They’ve won three of his past five home starts but scored a combined one run of support over those two home losses to Minnesota and Milwaukee. Scoring runs have been an issue all season when Walker toes the slab this season — the Phillies score just 4.75 runs of support per Walker start.

Walker has been very good at Citizens Bank Park. The veteran righty whiffs nearly eight but does walk almost four hitters per nine innings. He's allowing just under one home run per nine frames and has allowed a dozen earned runs over his past 28 innings at Citizens Bank Park.

It won’t be easy for either pitcher or their above-average bullpens. Atlanta has scored the most runs of any club in the NL over the last 30 days — Philadelphia has scored the second most but has the highest wRC+ of any NL club over the past 30 days.

Finally, the 9.5-run total is too close to the key number of nine. The majority of MLB contests end with either, seven, nine, or 11 runs. I don’t have a good enough reason to believe these clubs will get Over the hump — both starters are strong, their offenses don’t support them with many runs, and both starters know how to keep the ball in the yard.

My best bet: Under 9.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay

Under 10.5 (-145)

Bryce Harper to record a hit (-190)

+180 at DraftKings

We already discussed why I chose the Under 9.5. DraftKings gave us 10.5 runs but also charged us -145 for the extra run. I don’t expect to see many runs today so we’ll pay the extra juice for this wager. 

Harper has a good history against Morton. The Phillies All-Star is slashing .385/.514/.615/1.130 with 10 hits and seven RBI over 26 at-bats. Harper is riding a three-game hitting streak and is a good bet to record a hit today. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Atlanta locked up a playoff berth with Sunday’s 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. They're 46-24 as the away team and 8-2 over their last 10 road games. 

Philadelphia has a two-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Wild Card race and a four-game lead over the Diamondbacks. The Phillies are 42-28 at home this season and 6-4 over their past 10 contests at Citizens Bank Park.

Morton has thrown shutout ball in seven of his 27 starts this season with three shutouts as the away pitcher (Mets, Tigers, and Rangers). Walker has left the game three times this season without allowing a run over his 27 starts. All three of those games were at Citizens Bank Park (Dodgers, Tigers, and Cubs).

Atlanta has a 4-2 season series lead and a three-game winning streak over Philadelphia, including the past two at Citizens Bank Park. Each of those two victories finished Under the total as have three of their past four meetings. 

Bullpens matter: Atlanta leads the NL in holds with a fourth-best 45 saves. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 14th in holds and their 38 saves rank ninth in the NL. 

Trend to know

The Under is 5-0-1 in Walker's last six home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton (14-11, 3.32 ERA): Morton has been very solid this season. His home/away splits are very similar. He strikes out 9.08 hitters with 4.95 walks per nine frames on the mound while allowing 0.23 home runs per nine. Morton’s away xFIP is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. That usually means regression could be coming.

Taijuan Walker (15-5, 4.15 ERA): Walker is having a terrific season, especially at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies righty has recorded a 3.26 ERA over 77 1/3 innings with 7.91 strikeouts and 4.07 walks per nine home frames. Walker also has a home xFIP 1.40 runs higher than his ERA meaning he too could see some regression. 

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