The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox begin a two-game series at Fenway Park on Tuesday. The Braves are sending red-hot Max Fried to the hill tonight and my MLB picks for this interleague clash expect another strong performance from the southpaw.
Here are my best free Braves vs. Red Sox predictions for June 4.
Braves vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Max Fried Over 18.5 outs (+155 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Max Fried will toe the rubber for the Atlanta Braves tonight, and he's been dealing down the stretch. In his last nine starts, Fried has pitched to a 1.75 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP.
The Over 18.5 outs for Fried is installed at +155 this evening, which is surprising considering he has racked up at least 21 outs in five of his last seven starts. Over that span, the southpaw has pitched a pair of complete games, and he's coming off an outing against the Nationals where he threw eight innings of shutout ball. The Braves workhorse ranks in the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and ground ball rate, while entering Tuesday in the 15th percentile in barrel rate.
The Boston Red Sox have the 11th-highest ground ball rate in the majors and rank just 22nd in xwOBA (.310). They also have an OPS of just .692 against lefties like Fried and generally struggle to extend at-bats.
Fried hasn't pitched since last Tuesday and he should be more than well-rested enough to go Over 18.5 outs versus a banged-up and struggling BoSox lineup.
Braves vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Max Fried Over 18.5 outs
Max Fried Under 7.5 strikeouts
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Although it seems counter-intuitive to take the Over on Fried's outs and the Under on his strikeouts, it makes sense and creates a great multiplier for this parlay. Keep in mind that Fried has eclipsed 7.5 punchouts in just one start all season, and he ranks in the bottom 40th percentile in strikeout rate.
After clubbing a career-high 54 homers last season, Matt Olson is having a bit of a down year. However, he has picked things up lately, which makes sense since his analytics (Top 10 percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity) suggested positive regression.
Over the last 20 games, Olson is slashing .312/.349/.584. Left-handed sluggers tend to thrive at Fenway, and Olson will also have the platoon advantage against struggling Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Red Sox odds
Braves vs Red Sox live odds
Braves vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+100) | Boston +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -170 | Boston +145
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Braves vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on Boston and the Under, cutting Atlanta's ML price from -170 to -160 and shifting the total down to 8.0.
- The Braves are 33-24 but have gone 3-4 and 1-6 O/U to their team total since losing 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending injury.
- Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford had a 1.75 ERA in his first eight starts but has pitched to a 6.55 ERA with an OBA of .279 in his last four outings.
- Boston is currently without four starters in the batting order, with Tyler O'Neil, Masataka Yoshida, Vaughn Grissom, and Wilyer Abreu all nursing injuries.
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Braves vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the team total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.80 Units / 40% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox
Braves vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, NESN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (5-2, 2.97 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (2-4, 3.29 ERA) |
Braves vs Red Sox latest injuries
Braves vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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